497
FNUS21 KWNS 091658
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated
area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface
observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range
(and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly
breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of
fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through
this afternoon.

For additional details, see the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 03/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/

...Synopsis...
A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today,
though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall
fire-danger threat limited.

...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley...
As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold
front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far
south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening.
High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on
the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a
lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained.

...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota...
West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will
result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern
Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern
North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the
range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests
fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has
generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be
sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the
uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been
maintained at this time.

...Mid Atlantic...
High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end
probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern
Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds
of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are
only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending
future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction
of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$