389
FXUS63 KDVN 081725
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1125 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Outside of moderating temperatures Friday through Sunday,  below
  normal temperatures will continue through mid-January.

- Weak clipper-type systems have a 20 to 30 percent chance to
  bring a dusting of snow accumulation Thursday night into
  Friday and again on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Today...High pressure at the sfc and aloft to make for a fair wx day
with some sunshine after the stratocu deck in the southern CWA
clears/erodes. Limited mixing under ongoing H85 to H7 MB inversion
leads to a lot of low to mid 20s for highs.

Tonight...Lingering effects of high pressure and mainly clear skies
or thin streaks of CI supports a cold night well down in the single
digits. But signs of increasing clouds late as well as some sfc wind
return flow as the ridge retreats should prevent a colder temp
bottom out.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Thursday and Friday...Attention turns to the next upper level trof
upstream acrs the southwest plains to northwest GRT LKS trying to
phase in a wavy pattern. Continued increasing south to southwest low
to mid level flow to the lee of this process will boost temps acrs
the local area into the upper 20s to lower 30s on Thu. Accepted
ensemble blends continue to try and form a longer wave upper trof
and encroach it upon the region by Friday for precip chances. But
they continue to show the southern stream portion of this trof being
the moisture and forcing hog for the bulk of the precip occurring
acrs the lower MS RVR into the mid MS RVR/TN Valley. Further north
along the sfc reflection front under the northern trof axis there
could be a band of light snow sagging into the CWA from the northwest
by Thu night. Dry air and lift going into saturation make for a
worry that a lot of this precip sagging into the northwestern CWA
late Thu afternoon and evening will erode or be just a few flurries.
May have to watch for patchy freezing drizzle in these areas if any
LLVL saturation can occur under the dry layers. This while a little
better moisture conveyor shuttles a swath of light snow from the
southwest off the lower MS RVR system and acrs the southeast half to
third of the DVN CWA later Thu night into Friday morning. These
southeast areas may get in on some light/minor snow accumulations by
Friday afternoon. Will cover both aspects with light to moderate CHC
POPs for now.

Saturday and Sunday...The medium range solutions suggest a winter
time type of thermal lobe to squeeze eastward acrs the area from the
west by Saturday in the wake of the exiting Friday trof. With some
sunshine, temps may warm into the lower 30s Sat in the lesser snow
cover or bare areas. Then the wavy pattern continues to deliver with
the next low pressure clipper system looking to roll acrs the upper
Midwest and GRT LKS from Sat night through Sunday night. Still much
uncertainty on the track and north-south potential deviance, but at
least there appears to be the chance for some more light snow in or
near the local area from late Saturday night into Sunday. Again the
path of the main low will be important, as a more northerly track
may mean less snow but a better opportunity to draw dry slot air
aloft above any lingering lower level saturation for a freezing
drizzle scenario. High temps may be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
Sunday, but the sfc`s remain cold.

Monday and Tuesday...Longer range pattern signals show a bit of flux
back to higher amplified northwest flow or upper troffiness acrs
the upper MS RVR Valley for early next week in the wake of the
Sunday clipper. Even some temporary closed off upper low formation
possible in this regime acrs the northwest half of the GRT LKS.
Overall it looks like a bit of a chill down for the area under this
pattern for early next week, but nothing extreme looking at the
ensemble H85 MB temps being drawn down acrs the CWA. Of course this
flow with north-south baroclinicity may usher a weak clipper down
toward our area either late Monday or Tuesday for light snow/flurry
chances sometime, but too hard/far out to pin down POPs at this
juncture.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Winds will slowly turn to the south through 12z/09 in response
to an approaching system from the Plains. VFR conditions are
expected through 00z/10 with slowly deteriorating conditions
with SN developing after 00z/10.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08