691
FXUS63 KDVN 241512
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1012 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather through the middle of next week with Fall-
  like temperatures and mainly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Another beautiful day today as high pressure becomes more
entrenched across the area as H5 cyclonic flow reinforces the
drier air. Later this morning a potent shortwave rotates around
the periphery of the H5 flow. Dry low levels means this wave is
little more than clouds and wind across the area. Current
forecast is trending a little more cloudy than the forecast
yesterday as decent vort advection with moisture at H85 suggests
some level of cu/stratocu today. Winds will be gusty again
today, however we expect even drier air in place this afternoon
than yesterday. As such, it will feel great across the area
today.

As far as pop potential, there are better low level lapse rates
to the north and east of the area and some of the GEFS members
suggest light rain mainly in far NW IL this afternoon. Did add
some schc pops to this area. Do think that if showers were to
form, llvl dry air would make most of what falls evaporate and
lead to mostly sprinkles across that region.

Tonight, clouds should clear as high pressure reigns supreme.
Lows in the 40s to near 50 are expected area wide. While this
are cold temperatures for this time of year, they still look to
be 4 to 6 degrees above record lows which are mainly in the low
40s. At this time we look to be well above this threshold.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

No change to the long term forecast pattern. We look to continue
with the fall like weather through at least the middle of the
week. As previous shift noted, this is a high confidence
forecast. There could be chances for showers each of these days,
however, dry air will really cut down on this occurring. Low
temperatures in this pattern will dip well into the 40s, with
some risk for nearing record low as suggested in the previous
AFD. There is no risk for any hazard in this weather.

Towards the end of the period, the upper level trof begins to
flatten as return flow brings warmer and more moist air into the
area. That said, dewpoints in the 50s will still feel great with
highs in the 80s. NBM has some scattered low end pops towards
the weekend, signaling divergence in some of the guidance with
overall pattern. So lower confidence on any impactful weather
later in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions are still expected today as diurnal cumulus is
expected to form later this morning. Near 18z, this may become
more of a bkn deck with some stratocumulus possible. Otherwise,
expect gusty winds to 25 kts this afternoon. Winds will slacken
overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Changes...

A flood watch has been issued for the Wapsipinicon River near
De Witt. A flood warning has been issued for the Cedar River
near Conesville.

Discussion...

Tributary rivers in eastern Iowa have been rising in response
to heavy rainfall 7 to 10 days along the IA/MN border and
southern Minnesota. Crests are moving downstream on the Cedar,
Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers and should be through these river
basins by next weekend.

Routed flow is generally accounted for in all three basins but
there may be some unaccounted flow from non-measured streams.
Based on the overall flow data, the Wapsipinicon River near De
Witt will see a general rise over the next three days with a
possible crest around flood stage just before next weekend.

Forecasts for the Cedar River near Conesville have been trending
downward the past few days. However, the routed flow is
accounted for so the river should crest right around flood stage
on Tuesday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs
HYDROLOGY...08