608
FXUS63 KDVN 050002
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
602 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory continues for the entire area until midnight
  with wind gusts up to 45 mph expected. Probability of a high
  wind warning is 15-20% for areas north of highway 30.

- Snow showers and flurries will be seen late this afternoon and
  evening. The probability of a snow squall is about 20%, mainly
  for areas north of I-80.

- Thursday morning wind chills will be in the zero to minus 15
  range with lows in the single digits and teens. Afternoon
  highs will only rebound into the upper teens to mid 20s.

- Temperatures will recover to above normal over the weekend and
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Winds will continue to build the remainder of the afternoon with the
highest wind gusts of 45 mph (up to 50 mph is possible) from 4 to 9
PM. Upstream in southern Minnesota and far northern Iowa winds are
already gusting to 45 mph and locally higher. The wind advisory
looks good right now. The probability of a high wind warning looks
to be 15-20%, and, if one is needed, areas north of highway 30 would
be favored.

During roughly the time frame of peak wind gusts, snow showers and
possibly snow squalls are possible as temperatures turn colder
behind the arctic front. Temperatures behind the arctic front should
drop about 10 degrees in roughly 2 hours.

The probability of snow squalls looks to be in the 20-30% range.
Thus while the potential is low, the impacts from snow squalls is
higher than normal due to them potentially occurring during the
evening commute and falling temperatures behind the front.

Thus scattered snow showers are expected from mid to late afternoon
through early evening. Any accumulations look to be under an inch
but with temperatures eventually dropping below freezing, the
potential for slick spots developing on untreated roads, bridges,
parking lots and sidewalks is very high.

Once the snow showers end, scattered flurries will continue through
midnight and possibly a bit beyond as the remaining moisture in the
air is rung out. After midnight winds will begin to very slowly
diminish through sunrise Thursday.

Cold and windy conditions will be seen across the area on Thursday
with clearing skies. Minimum wind chills of 5 to 15 below zero will
be seen around sunrise and will not go above zero until late
morning. The windy conditions will slowly subside through the day
with temperatures well below normal for early December.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Northwest flow aloft is forecast to breakdown Friday into the coming
weekend as dampening high pressure shifts from the Northern Rockies
into the Upper Midwest with southwest flow aloft by Sunday. This
will allow temperatures to rebound into this weekend. Friday will
see high temperatures in the Upper 20s along the Highway 20 corridor
to the mid 30s in far southeast Iowa and adjacent counties in
Illinois and Missouri. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to
range from the upper 40s along the Highway 20 corridor to the lower
50s along and south of Highway 30. Sunday will also be breezy with
sustained winds of 10 to 20 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH.

Sunday night through Tuesday, A trough moving from the Northern
Rockies into the Plains is forecast by the GFS to phase with a
southern stream trough over the southern High Plains and bring  rain
showers with the potential for a rain/snow mix or all snow Monday
night into Tuesday as colder air moves into the area. The ECWMF does
not phase these two system with a lead shortwave arriving Sunday
night into Monday morning with a faster precipitation onset time.
Temperatures will remain above normal on Mondays with highs in the
lower to mid 40s. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the lower
to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Very windy and turbulent evening in tight LLVl pressure
gradient and strong cold air advection regime. But it appears
the more substantial snow showers will remain isolated and off
to the northeast of the TAF sites, with lighter wind-whipped
flurries and 5-6SM reduced VSBYs at times at CID/DBQ at the
worst. Otherwise mainly VFR skies into Thu morning. The strong
sfc winds will decrease some after 06z, but remain gusty into
midday Thursday. Will continue mainly clear skies for much of
the area after mid morning Thu, but some worry that cold air
advection stratocu may advect down acrs the CWA at times and be
close to MVFR heights.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ001-002-007-
     009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...12