702
FXUS63 KDVN 162353
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
653 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southwest to west winds into this evening, peaking
  near advisory criteria at 40 - 45 mph. Potential also for
  isolated showers and storms (very low coverage) which could
  produce localized wind gusts over 50 mph.

- Active weather returns early next week. Highest chances
  (60-80%) are focused Monday and Tuesday where widespread
  beneficial soaking rain appears likely. Confidence on any
  severe weather threat is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A strong surface low over northern Minnesota (988 mb) will
maintain a tight pressure gradient across eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois into this evening, so we can expect a
continuation of strong southwest to west winds. Frequent gusts
around 40 mph are anticipated, and occasional 45+ mph gusts are
possible especially in the vicinity of any isolated
showers/storms. Have held off on a Wind Advisory with most of
the area holding below criteria so far this afternoon. However,
we have already been messaging the potential for 40+ mph gusts
with an area-wide SPS through this evening.

Today`s post-frontal airmass is comfortably dry compared to
yesterday with afternoon dewpoints only in the 40s. It`s still
warm though with 2 PM temperatures ranging from the upper 70s
in the north to lower to upper 80s for central and southern
sections.

There`s still a potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms
to develop along a southwest to west wind shift moving through
this afternoon and evening. CAMs vary on the coverage, but
current thinking is at best around 20% coverage with much of the
area likely to stay dry. SPC mesoanalysis has DCAPE values
already approaching 1000 J/kg for areas along and east of the
Mississippi River. Therefore strong wind gusts would likely
accompany any showers/storms that form, which is further
supported by large inverted-V profiles on CAM soundings.

Since significant green-up of vegetation and area grasses has
already occurred this spring the fire weather threat should be
muted through this evening. Nonetheless, given the strong gusty
winds, dry conditions, and low humidity around 20-25%, outdoor
burning is strongly discouraged.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Low pressure will continue to slowly shift across the Great Lakes
region this weekend. This will keep the area in cyclonic flow
with breezy conditions for Saturday and cooler, more seasonable
highs from the mid/upper 60s to the mid 70s. Sunday, the low will
be far enough to allow for surface high pressure to build in
bringing much lighter winds with temperatures moderating back into
the 70s areawide.

Early week the pattern looks very conducive for widespread soaking
rains, as a smorgasbord of energy dumps into the western CONUS that
then translates eastward forming a closed low moving slowly over
the Midwest. This would allow ample Gulf moisture to become
entrained with EC and GFS deterministic models depicting PWATs
over 1.4 to 1.5 inches, which according to SPC sounding climatology
would be well above the 90th percentile and near climatological
max for all DVN raobs for the dates of May 19/20th. This would be
a beneficial rain for most, which based on the strength of forcing
has the potential to match the PWAT and accumulate at least
1-2 inches between Monday and Tuesday, but with a slow moving
system and lingering moist conveyor locally higher amounts would
seem plausible. The severe weather potential remains low
confidence given the anticipation of widespread rain and cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Windy conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF
period, although the strongest gusts are expected this evening
before slowly tapering off after midnight tonight. There could
be some locally stronger gusts to around 40-45 knots under
light showers moving through the area this evening. Also, we`re
watching some MVFR ceilings upstream over north-central
IA/south-central MN that will approach the area this evening
through Saturday morning before scattering out. Confidence is
high for these MVFR cigs for CID, DBQ, and MLI, with around
70-90% chances of MVFR for these sites off the NBM - lesser
chances farther south for BRL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...McClure/Uttech
AVIATION...Schultz