911
FXUS63 KDVN 052320
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
620 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and breezy conditions continue today will lead to
  elevated fire danger across the area, particularly in cured
  crop fields

- Cooler conditions on Sunday, with noticeably lower humidity
  and breezy, very high fire danger for crop fields again.

- Dry conditions prevail throughout the long-term period

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A cold front is expected to move through the area this evening.
This will bring the winds down overnight before ramping back up
tomorrow with the CAA behind the front. This evening, winds
will remain gusty as well, 15 to 25 MPH, as guidance continues
to show a mixed boundary layer. Winds will eventually shift to
the NW late. Clear skies tomorrow will promote deep mixing with
a cooler and drier air mass across the area. Temperatures will
be 15 to 20 degrees cooler tomorrow. Dewpoints are expected to
mix out as well, into the low to mid 30s. Decided to go lower
than the NBM here. The HRRR that usually does better with Td
mixing out seems to be overmixing as of late. So decided not to
go that low with Tds. This should drop RH tomorrow as well to
the mid 20 percent range. However, since GFDI is based mostly
on wind, temp and cured crops, we look to stay in very high GFDI
as opposed to Extreme category. Tomorrow will feel chilly
compared to today!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Rinse and repeat is the story of the long term. Start the period
with seasonal temperatures through midweek before upper level
ridging moves into the area. By the end of the week we are back
into the 80s. With dry conditions expect large diurnal swings in
temps again. Guidance today continues to show a consistent
message here. We look to remain dry through the period as well.
Sunday night into Monday, lows could be low enough that we could
see some frost across the far north. Will need to keep an eye on
this tomorrow. Will want to watch the Tds upstream to see how
far they drop in the next 24 hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with winds
being the main concern. Currently, we are seeing gusty southerly
winds, with gusts upwards to 25-30 KTs at times. A cold front
will pass through between 02-06z, with LLWS being an issue
during this timeframe throughout the area. The LLWS will be
about 40-50 KTs out of the southwest. After the cold front
passes, between 06-08z, winds will become much lighter and out
of the west-northwest. After 12z, we will see these winds pick
up quite a bit once again, with much of the area seeing
northwest gusts between 25-30 KTs through the day tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Very high to low-end Extreme GFDI values for croplands are
forecast this afternoon, especially across east central Iowa.
Cured crops along with winds gusting to near 40 mph will drive
this threat. We are on the border for needing a red flag
warning, especially north and west of a Williamsburg Iowa to
Manchester Iowa line. Native grasses remain green, so they
should not be much of a factor. If a field fire were to start,
expect them to become difficult to control. A wind shift should
occur this evening and could change the direction of any fires
not out this evening. A short lull in wind tonight before we get
gusty again.

Tomorrow, winds behind the cold front aren`t as strong but
still enough to keep the entire area in very high GFDI for
croplands. Overall RHs will be lower, however with the crops
being cured, wind and temperature will drive the main GFDI
threats. Another SPS will likely be needed tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Record High Temperatures October 5:

Burlington   89/2007
Cedar Rapids 89/1963 and previous years
Dubuque      87/1922
Moline       89/1922

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gunkel
FIRE WEATHER...Gibbs
CLIMATE...McClure