532
FXUS63 KDVN 092332
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
632 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather through the weekend with warming temperatures
  and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

- Rain chances return toward the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

High pressure is expected to shift south and east of the area
this afternoon into the overnight. At the same time, a cold
front is expected to sag south into the area overnight into
Saturday. Ahead of this cold front, WAA is expected to bring
warmer temps into the area for Saturday. The cold front is
expected to stall just north of the area. The cooler air looks
to remain north and east of the area. That said, our far NE may
only see highs in the low to mid 70s Saturday while everywhere
else is expected to see temps in the low 80s. Dewpoints in the
low 50s to upper 40s means that Saturday looks to be quite a
nice day across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025...

Long term AFD still looks good. Main story is active weather
returns next week, but details are hard to ascertain at this
time.

Prev Disc.
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025...

As we get into next week there is good agreement in the deterministic
and ensembles of a pattern change to a broad trough in the western
CONUS. The developing SW flow aloft will help to lift the remnant
Lower Mississippi Valley low northward to bring a shower or storm
chance (20-40%) by Tuesday, especially in the afternoon which could
linger through Tuesday evening. This looks like just the beginning of
potentially an unsettled stretch of weather, as some of the western
energy is ejected into the central CONUS mid to late next week
allowing for some Gulf moisture fetch and daily rain chances (20-40%)
Wednesday through Friday. There`s plenty of spread in various ensembles
on the timing/track of this energy, so expect further refinement on
location/timing of PoPs. One thing even at this range it would appear
that there should also be plenty of dry time. Various machine learning
guidance also suggests there could be some severe weather potential, but
seeing as this is still nearly a week away skill is not particularly
high. Nonetheless, it`s something to keep an eye on after we get past
this upcoming great weekend of weather! Be sure to enjoy it, as
besides potentially turning more active mid to late next week it will
also probably feel more summery with the increase in moisture to go
along with h85 temperature anomalies of +6 to +10c above average
supporting well above average highs (possibly our first 90F for some
during this stretch?).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

VFR will continue across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois
through Saturday with high pressure in control. Light and
variable winds overnight will become steady out of the north on
Saturday, mostly under 15 kts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs/McClure
AVIATION...Uttech