639
FXUS63 KDVN 061039
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
539 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today
  into early tonight. Much of the area will stay dry due to low
  coverage.

- Occasional chances of showers and storms remain in the picture
  through next week, but with plenty of dry periods interspersed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Today: As of early this morning, SPC mesoanalysis had a 500mb
shortwave over the Upper Mississippi Valley region with an
associated surface trough axis stretching from eastern Ontario
back to the southwest toward Iowa and northern Missouri. The
southern extent of the 500mb trough will continue to influence
the local area today as it gradually drifts toward the east.
Periods of sun during the afternoon will result in increasing
instability with MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg as SBCIN erodes.
Expect highs in the mid 80s on average with continued humid
conditions.

The aforementioned surface trough axis is forecast to drop from
north to south through the region, providing a zone of weak
low-level convergence with winds veering from the west to the
north. Latest CAMs develop scattered showers and a few isolated
storms this afternoon and evening, mainly near the Quad Cities
and points to the east and south. Any showers or storms will be
slow movers, generally tracking to the southeast around 10-20
mph. Although it`s a low confidence outcome, a few brief funnel
clouds are possible as hi-res models are showing enhanced
surface vorticity along the boundary, combined with moderate
low-level CAPE (0-3 km 75+ J/kg). Latest RAP NST parameter is
highlighting the boundary with values of ~0.5 - 1.5.

Monday: Seasonably warm and humid weather is expected with highs
in the 80s and dewpoints between 65 to 70 degrees. Dry
conditions are forecast through the day with low chances for
scattered showers and storms at night across the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Zonal flow aloft will be the norm for next week, which will help
maintain seasonable July temperatures and humidity levels. Next week
will continue to have periodic chances of showers and storms,
particularly for Tuesday through Friday, as a series of mid-level
shortwaves look to sweep through the area, but widespread rainfall
is not anticipated. Confidence remains generally low this far out on
the timing of these systems with 20-50% chances of showers and
storms per the NBM. Despite the lower confidence, there are some
signals in the various extended machine learning output for the
potential for isolated strong to severe storms Tuesday through
Friday, so something to be mindful of as we go through the
upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected through the mid to
late morning as a trough of low pressure pivots through the
region. Decreasing cloud cover is anticipated for the afternoon
with a return to VFR. A few isolated showers (possibly an
isolated storm) are expected to redevelop this afternoon near
or east of the Quad Cities. Have low confidence on the coverage
so mentioned the shower chance in a PROB30 at MLI. Winds will
remain light through the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Schultz/Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech