


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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055 FXUS63 KDVN 171046 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 546 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and breezy today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s! - Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms from late this evening through Saturday night. - Seasonable mid to late October weather is forecast for much of next week with no significant precipitation expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Today and Tonight: A strong surface low tracking across southern Manitoba into northwest Ontario will result in breezy southerly winds and unseasonably warm temperatures across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region today. Locally for eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois, forecast highs are in the upper 70s to lower 80s which is about 15-20 degrees above normal for mid October! A cold front will slowly approach the area from the WNW into tonight, leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly after 7 PM in the west, and around or after midnight along/east of the Mississippi River. With persistent moisture advection in the lower atmosphere (dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s) and increasing large-scale ascent downstream of a mid-level shortwave, the coverage of showers/storms should increase for a time late tonight (40-70%). Locations that get hit by a few heavier showers could receive over 0.25" of rainfall, while areas that get missed may only receive around 0.10" or less. Saturday: The cold front is expected to slow down and temporarily stall across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois as a potent 500mb shortwave/vorticity max digs into the Central Plains and lower portion of the Midwest. This will lead to cyclogenesis across the Lower Great Lakes region, likely shunting the heaviest rainfall to our east later Saturday into Saturday night. With the said, another round of showers and isolated storms is likely (40-70%, highest along/east of MS River) Saturday night as the deep upper wave, and attendant upper jet coupling and strong PVA, translates across the area. High temperatures will reach the 70s with low- level cold air advection holding off until the surface low wraps up east of the area later into the evening/nighttime period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Sunday will be cooler and breezy with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s per the NBM, with NW winds gusting 20-30+ mph. Finally feeling a little more like fall! Another deep upper trough is forecast to dig into the Midwest and Great Lakes early next week with an attendant surface low tracking north of the local area across the Great Lakes. After a brief warm up ahead of the trough on Monday, cooler more seasonable temperatures are expected for the rest of the week. We`ll stay on the drier southwest flank of the early week system, so rain chances will be on the low side for Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then returns for mid to late in the week. We`ll have to watch for frost potential along/north of Highway 30 Tuesday night, which will depend on how quickly a surface ridge builds in behind the departing low. Latest NBM has mid 30s for lows north of I-80, but again confidence is low this far out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Forecast remains on track today into tonight: Increasing SSW winds aloft (1000-2000 ft AGL) to near 40 kts will result in a period of low-level wind shear at CID and DBQ early this morning. At the surface, expect breezy conditions today across all of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois, with S to SSW winds gusting 20-25+ kts into the early evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight; have mentioned showers in PROB30s for now with low confidence on exact timing and on thunder potential. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Uttech AVIATION...Uttech