055
FXUS63 KDVN 171046
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
546 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and breezy today with highs in the upper 70s to
  lower 80s!

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms from late this
  evening through Saturday night.

- Seasonable mid to late October weather is forecast for much
  of next week with no significant precipitation expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Today and Tonight:

A strong surface low tracking across southern Manitoba into
northwest Ontario will result in breezy southerly winds and
unseasonably warm temperatures across the Mid to Upper
Mississippi Valley region today. Locally for eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois, forecast highs are in the upper 70s to lower
80s which is about 15-20 degrees above normal for mid October!
A cold front will slowly approach the area from the WNW into
tonight, leading to the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly after 7 PM in the west, and around or after
midnight along/east of the Mississippi River. With persistent
moisture advection in the lower atmosphere (dewpoints in the mid
50s to lower 60s) and increasing large-scale ascent downstream
of a mid-level shortwave, the coverage of showers/storms should
increase for a time late tonight (40-70%). Locations that get
hit by a few heavier showers could receive over 0.25" of
rainfall, while areas that get missed may only receive around
0.10" or less.

Saturday:

The cold front is expected to slow down and temporarily stall
across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois as a potent 500mb
shortwave/vorticity max digs into the Central Plains and lower
portion of the Midwest. This will lead to cyclogenesis across
the Lower Great Lakes region, likely shunting the heaviest
rainfall to our east later Saturday into Saturday night. With
the said, another round of showers and isolated storms is
likely (40-70%, highest along/east of MS River) Saturday night
as the deep upper wave, and attendant upper jet coupling and
strong PVA, translates across the area. High temperatures will
reach the 70s with low- level cold air advection holding off
until the surface low wraps up east of the area later into the
evening/nighttime period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Sunday will be cooler and breezy with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s per the NBM, with NW winds gusting 20-30+ mph. Finally
feeling a little more like fall!

Another deep upper trough is forecast to dig into the Midwest
and Great Lakes early next week with an attendant surface low
tracking north of the local area across the Great Lakes. After a
brief warm up ahead of the trough on Monday, cooler more
seasonable temperatures are expected for the rest of the week.
We`ll stay on the drier southwest flank of the early week
system, so rain chances will be on the low side for Monday
night into Tuesday. High pressure then returns for mid to late
in the week. We`ll have to watch for frost potential along/north
of Highway 30 Tuesday night, which will depend on how quickly a
surface ridge builds in behind the departing low. Latest NBM
has mid 30s for lows north of I-80, but again confidence is low
this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Forecast remains on track today into tonight: Increasing SSW
winds aloft (1000-2000 ft AGL) to near 40 kts will result in a
period of low-level wind shear at CID and DBQ early this
morning. At the surface, expect breezy conditions today across
all of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois, with S to SSW winds
gusting 20-25+ kts into the early evening. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight; have mentioned
showers in PROB30s for now with low confidence on exact timing
and on thunder potential.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech