559
FXUS63 KDVN 131714
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another warm day is expected today with highs in the mid to
  upper 70s for much of the area.

- While rain chances are found in northern areas early this
  week, rainfall appears spotty and light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Late in the evening, the band of scattered high based shower moves
through the area, ahead of the cold front. For nearly all locations
this amounted to a few minutes of rain, and only trace amounts.
Temperatures appear only to bottom out in the lower 60s in many
areas this morning, as south winds are continuing waa, and
widespread mid and high clouds are found in all locations. This
cloud cover will be the limiting factor to what could be a warm day.

Today, models are generally under-doing the cloud cover over the
entire midwest.  A large stream of mid clouds and cirrus is found
from the southwest through Iowa and Wisconsin. There is also some
stratus near the front, which is found in central Iowa as of 1 AM.
Looking at model sounding today, the models that have highs in the
low 80s today all have little saturation aloft, i.e. sunny skies
today, and mixing up through 5000ft, despite weak wind flow. Those
that are showing saturation at mid and high levels, are much cooler,
and show much shallower mixing, with highs generally in the lower
70s. Looking closely at satellite, it does appear that some thin
spots and mostly sunny hours are possible today, but will nudge this
forecast towards the cooler guidance once again, with highs in the
low 70s north, and mid 70s (74-77) in the central and south, where
the cold front passage is set for this afternoon. Rainfall is not
expected today with the cold front.

Tonight, cloud cover continues to be something affecting
temperatures, with bands of mid and high clouds expected to
stream over the area. Despite CAA from the northeast, lows
tonight behind the cold front are still expected to be near 60
south, with mid 40s in the far north where clearing is more
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday, the front is expected to remain just south of
the CWA, with plenty of mid clouds and some threat for light
precipitation in over-running in the north 1/2 of the CWA. Highs in
the 60s to lower 70s north and mid 70s south are expected. Following
this cooler period, a deep western trof will advance east aloft,
with drawing the front northward again, for Thursday and Friday. The
NBM is very aggressive on strong warming in this period, with upper
70s to mid 80s forecast. Given some potential for clouds in this
flow, I have tempered Friday`s highs toward the 25% NBM, which is
still upper 70s to near 80. Should the warmest solutions verify,
along with the current breezy southwest winds forecast, this
period may need to be highlighted for fire weather as well.

Friday into the weekend, the deep upper trof continues to show
movement far enough east to push a cold front through our CWA, and
with that, we have pops for rain in the 30-60% range. Like last
night, it`s still pretty far out, and this time, there remains low
confidence on this potential storm system`s impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR expected today with plenty of sun as the main band of clouds
shifts to the east through Illinois. A boundary will remain
over the area into Tuesday, likely leading to the redevelopment
of low clouds (3000-5000 ft AGL) late tonight mainly south of
DBQ. This could result in periods of MVFR ceilings, most favored
at CID and BRL for Tuesday AM. Isolated showers are possible
late in this TAF period but did not include in the TAFs with
this update due to low confidence on coverage.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Uttech