274
FXUS63 KDVN 011744
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1244 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy dry post-frontal day today with an enhanced fire danger
  in drying grasses and especially cured crop fields. Cool
  tonight with some upper 30s possible in some areas, the
  warming some for Wednesday with another round of afternoon
  enhanced fire danger.

- The dry weather will continue for the most part into the
  weekend, with a bit of a roller coaster temperature
  pattern(but overall averaging well above normal).&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Today...A rather sharp cold front was currently plowing through the
eastern CWA ATTM, with IR imagery showing an associated fine line
of stratocu along it from MO to the MI U.P. Behind this FROPA,
gusty northwest sfc winds and DPTs in the 30s are on their way in.
Mixing profiles suggest the highest wind gusts up to 30 KTs will
occur this morning, but then the breezy conditions will last through
at least mid afternoon before starting to relax as a 1030 MB sfc
ridge center settles acrs the east central plains and lower MO RVR
Valley. Cool advection to occur today, and even with deep mixing
initially high temps will only be in the mid 6s0 to around 70. Unless
the ambient dry conditions and mixing boost high temps above the
90th percentile again and we get more lower 70s. RH vales dipping
into the low 30s and 20s combined with the breezy conditions today
will make for very high fire danger parameters mainly in cured
unharvested crop fields and will message. Sunny today but some
elevated haze possible with some post-frontal smoke-drag aloft acrs
the area.

Tonight...Northern portion of the ridge axis slides acrs the DVN CWA
for a sfc wind drop off and mainly clear skies. With ongoing low sfc
DPTs, sfc temps will dip quickly after sunset. This will make for a
lot of low temps ranging down into the low 40s(agreeing with H85 MB
cold ridge rule) , before light return flow commences on the western
flank of the passing sfc high toward dawn. Some upper 30s still
possible before temps steady out or go non-diurnal, especially in
the cool air drainage locations of IL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Wednesday...Flattened mean steering layer flow noted acrs the north
half of most of the CONUS, and this day to be an increasingly breezy
return flow and warming day. Nice diurnal swing with highs making it
back into the low to mid 70s by mid afternoon. Low RH and
warming/breezy conditions to make for another fire danger day in the
crop fields especially on the IA side along and north of I-80. Not
as cool Wed night.

Thursday and Friday...Dominant westerlies acrs the north half of the
mid CONUS to try and shunt a sfc boundary down toward the area from
the northwest by Thu evening. Pre-frontal warming ahead of this
feature to make for an unseasonably warm October day with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. The boundary will look to undulate down
acrs the CWA Thu night, and the latest run deterministic models vary
on keeping the area totally dry or breaking out some spotty precip
along and post-frontally into Friday morning. The frontal forcing is
there for precip, but the moisture may not be and will keep non-
mentionable POPs going for now this period. Bit of a post-frontal
cool down for Friday with increasing north to northeasterly fetch
off upper MS RVR Valley LLVL ridge.

Saturday through Monday...The progressive upper CONUS steering flow
pattern to shuttle of the Friday ridge to the east, allowing fro a
nice warm up well above normal for Sat with some 80s possible. In
fact, currently progged H85 temp draw up acrs the region would
support highs in the 90s if it were July. Current suite of ensembles
generally agree on another digging cool front acrs the area(much
like the one ongoing currently) later Sat night into Sunday morning
making for a temp decrease and breezy conditions for Sunday. Right
now the ensembles advertise a generally dry FROPA again late Sat
night and will keep unmentionable POPS. 2nd day after FROPA may mean
a couple of cool nights into early next week, with Monday highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Low level mechanical turbulence from winds gusting up to 30 mph
will continue through sunset. Otherwise VFR conditions will be
seen. As the inversion breaks again after 15z/02 additional low
level mechanical turbulence will develop from winds gusting up
to 25 mph, especially west of the Mississippi.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08