904
FXUS63 KDVN 161019
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
519 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Residual clouds/showers will be seen Thursday morning, largely
  in our northern half of the forecast area, decreasing as we
  approach the afternoon hours for most.

- Temperatures will increase above seasonal norms through the
  remainder of the week, where we may see the low 80s return to
  the area on Friday.

- Storm system to impact us Friday Night/Saturday, bringing the
  potential for widespread rainfall and thunderstorms. Severe
  weather is not expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Through the morning today, we will continue to see impacts from the
system stalled out over the Upper Midwest. As we have seen over
the last two days, dense cloud cover for the northern half of
our area and spotty showers will start the day again. Areas
south of Interstate 80 are more likely to remain dry, with a mix
of clouds and sun to start the day. The system finally starts
to push out of the area today though, as the wave over the
Rockies induces strong llvl southwesterly flow. Thus, by noon,
most of the area should be void of rainfall. From there, we will
continue to see some residual cloud cover, but we will largely
see the clouds start to scatter out through the afternoon hours.
Some CAMs do hint at a brief bout of showers/storms as this
system moves out, focused in our northern counties early this
afternoon. All accumulations should remain relatively low
through the day. Temperatures start to trend upwards today, with
much of the area reaching the low-mid 70s. Those in our south
will see more sun than the remainder of the area, which may
result in some getting close to 80.

Tonight, we finally lose our rain chances and will have some time
early in the night with mostly clear skies. Although, with
increasing southwesterly flow, we will start to see mid-high clouds
develop once again by midnight. These developing clouds should help
moderate temperatures, keeping them in the low 60s tonight, which is
our normal high temperature for this time of the year. Thus, a mild
night is ahead of us.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

As has been messaged over the last few days, the long awaited wave
that develops over the Rockies finally starts to emerge over the
Central Plains. Ahead of this, strong warm advection will result,
pumping warm and moist air into the Upper Midwest. Well above
normal temperatures are forecast, with most hovering around 80
on Friday. Increasing moisture will largely be seen in the form
of cloud cover through much of Friday, with increasing chances
for precipitation that night and through Saturday.

This wave ejects off of the Rockies Friday into Saturday, passing
northeast through the Upper Midwest. This will push the ridge east
of the area Friday into Saturday, dragging a cold front through the
area on Saturday. Over the last 24 hours, guidance has
continued to slow down a little more, with rain not moving into
the area until possibly near midnight Friday night. Then, we
expect the bulk of the rain to fall on Saturday, with prolonged
chances for rainfall possible. While we are not expecting a
complete washout on Saturday at this time , we will see the
chance for periodic showers. Breaks in the cloud cover will
allow for some instability to build, favoring thunderstorm
chances as well. Thus, embedded thunderstorms are expected,
which will lead to brief periods of moderate-heavy rainfall.
Although, much of this event will feature light to moderate
rain.

Another trend that has been noted over the last day is the upward
trend in precipitation amounts, some areas doubling in potential
rainfall. We are now looking at the potential for upwards to 1.00",
with some guidance hinting a little more for some. Forecast PWATs
between 1.00-1.25" will favor the potential for these higher
amounts. Best chances for these higher amounts will be along and
east of the Mississippi River, with those west of the river largely
seeing less than an inch. With that said, ensemble probabilities
aren`t very favorable for more than an inch, only indicating about a
10-30% chance at this point, focused along and east of the river.
Severe weather is not expected at this time, with better forcing and
environment for such south of the area. Behind this cold front, we
are in for quite the change on Sunday. Sunday will feature seasonal
temperatures and breeziness, with mostly clear skies. So, while that
will be normal for the time of the year, it will feel starkly
different than the above normal temperatures that we have been
seeing. Warmer clothing might be necessary, especially during the
evening/night.

Beyond the weekend, the pattern looks to remain relatively active.
Thus, temperatures will be up and down through the upcoming work
week. Too soon to pinpoint when the next best chance for
precipitation will be beyond Friday night and Saturday, but there
are sporadic low-end chances through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Upper low continues to bring in low clouds and showers through
this morning. This is especially true for DBQ/CID, where we
have been observing MVFR to IFR cigs frequently over the last
12 hours. This should continue into the morning, where we expect
to see coverage decrease between 15-18z. Although, until then we
can continue to see low cigs/vis due to these showers.
Overnight, we saw cigs <1000 ft, especially at DBQ. As we go
through this morning, cigs should start to increase into the
1000-3000 ft range, with vis remaining around 4-6 SM in showers.
By 18z, much of the area should be void of showers. The main
exception will be DBQ, where we may see a brief bout of showers
again this afternoon. Confidence is low overall on impacts with
that.

MLI and BRL may see some isolated showers, but confidence on
any impacts from them are low. Thus, MLI/BRL should largely
remain quiet and VFR for much of the TAF period. Winds will
remain around 10 KTs out of the east at all sites, increasing to
between 10-15 KTs out of the southeast through the day
Thursday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel