054
FXUS63 KDVN 302314
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
614 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms are expected through this evening, a few of
  which could be strong to severe well south of I-80.

- The pattern looks less active for most of the week, before
  chances for showers and thunderstorms increase by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Through Tonight: SPC mesoanalysis had a surface low located in
Ontario with a trailing weak cold front through the western
Great Lakes and extending back to the southwest into northern
Missouri. Surface observations show the front has passed through
most of the outlook area as winds have turned to the northwest.
MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg combined with large scale ascent
associated with a shortwave trough rolling across the area from
west to east will likely lead to low coverage showers and storms
through this evening (~20-40%, highest across the south). SPC
has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms,
mainly for isolated damaging winds if we do get a few stronger
cells to form. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible due to
slow storm motions. For the overnight period, expect cooler and
less humid conditions with lows in the 60s.

Tuesday - Wednesday: Pleasant summer weather is expected with
highs in the 80s and comfortable humidity for early July.

Wednesday Night: The latest NBM has low chances (20-30%) for
thunderstorms north of I-80 with our area on the eastern edge
of a weak low-level jet and area of elevated warm air advection.
Confidence is very low on the coverage of showers and storms
during this time with some models still showing dry conditions
into Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Thursday, July 4th/Friday and the weekend ahead continue to look
warm, with a gradual increase in thunderstorm chances over the
weekend. The heat could be near advisory levels, but the signal for
high dew point air is not too strong at this point. Highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s seem on track, with lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period, with only
a low chance (less than 20%) of light rain showers this evening
for MLI and BRL. Otherwise, a clear night is expected later tonight,
with a daytime cumulus cloud field returning Tuesday afternoon.
Ceilings should be around 4-5 kft. Northwest winds will remain
in place, strengthening to around 10 knots Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Schultz