848
FXUS63 KDVN 091858
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
158 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spring-like warmth through much of the week ahead, except
  potential to be notably cooler (closer to average) north on
  Tuesday in the wake of a cold frontal passage.

- Elevated fire danger this late this afternoon and especially
  Monday afternoon.

- A strong storm system is still looking likely to impact the
  region Friday into Saturday with potential for storms (some
  severe?) and windy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A remarkably pleasant day is found outside today, as 1 PM
temperatures have already reached the lower to mid 50s, and with
mostly sunny skies we`re expecting to see a few 60s show up by 2
or 3 PM. Humidity levels have maintained 40-45% this afternoon
so far, and may fall another 5-10%, keeping the fire threat
lower end through early afternoon. We will monitor for SPS
issuance highlight any areas that see conditions warrant, which
would tend to be in our southern CWA should that happen.

Tonight will be quiet, with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

Monday continues to look warmer than today, and a touch more
breezy, which brings an elevated fire weather threat for grass
fires spreading out of control. Details are found in the fire
weather section below. Monday`s highs should make a run to mid
60s northeast to lower 70s west. There is some chances (20-30%)
in the tails of the data for a deeper mix out, and highs in the
mid 70s combined with dewpoints dropping to the lower 30s, but
guidance is centered more conservatively in the upper 60s/lower
70s for highs, and RH values in the 35-40% range. Mixing ahead
of the slowly approaching front should bring winds up into the
15 to 20 mph range with some gusts to 25-30 mph at peak
afternoon hours.

Quieter weather is expected overnight into Tuesday morning, as
the front slowly settles through the CWA. The mild slow fropa is
expected to hold temperatures up, especially in the central and
southern CWA, with lows in the lower 30s north to mid 40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Tuesday stands alone as the only near normal/cooler day of the
week, as north winds and CAA hold temperatures to the upper 40s
north to near 60 south. For now, cloud cover appears mostly
sunny, which is good, as this could be a day held in the 40s to
low 50s if it were cloudy.

The warmer air returns already for Wednesday, and increases each
day through Friday, as the upcoming potentially strong storm
system moves towards the Midwest. The 3 day stretch of 60s to
mid 70s should really get some of the early spring vegetation
going! Otherwise, we`ll need to watch wind and RH forecasts
during this stretch for a daily fire weather threat.

Concerning the system Friday into Saturday, confidence remains
higher than normal for a strong storm system to impact the
central CONUS. Ensemble guidance and WPC 500 hPa cluster
analysis are continuing with good consistency on tracking a
vigorous, deep low pressure system from the Lee of the Rockies
into the Upper Midwest while occluding by Saturday. MSLP in
NAEFS remains near minimum relative to 30 yr model climatology
period 1979-2009 suggesting the potential for a very anomalous
deep cyclone, which will have a stormy side and also a wintry
side with both being accompanied by potentially very strong
winds. At this time the preponderance of the ensemble and
deterministic models favor this low track to our west Friday
night into Saturday, which would support our primary threats
being storms - possibly severe Friday PM/eve, and strong winds.
Still, being this far out cannot rule out some changes in the
track/strength going forward, but for now this seems to be a
pretty consistent signal. Stay tuned though!

If the track remains to our west on Friday, then we may be in
store for an anomalously warm day with highs well into the 70s
to near 80F with 925 hPa temperatures progged at 15C to 18C.
This of course is pending cloud cover and coverage of any
showers and storms. Temperatures would likely take a tumble
closer to seasonal normals in the cold advection Saturday night
and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

West to southwest winds will continue between 7 and 12 kts
sustained through Monday, with some gusts this afternoon into
the lower 20 kt range. Otherwise, excellent VFR visibility will
continue with only a few cirrus clouds, well above 12kft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Monday continues to look have a forecast that supports "Very
High" GFDI values in the western 1/2 of the CWA, or over eastern
Iowa more or less. There are currently no areas of "extreme"
GFDI forecast for the area, likely due to marginal winds for any
extreme fire behavior, and RH values that dip to ~30 for the
afternoon hours, vs values in the 20s or drier. For now, this
continues to fit a SPS/Graphicast *ELEVATED* threat level for
our CWA, while locations farther west may see warmer
temperatures and are going with a headline.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin/McClure
AVIATION...Ervin
FIRE WEATHER...Ervin