534
FXUS63 KDVN 070915
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
315 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog may develop early this morning and could become
  locally dense.

- The next round of rain (40-70%) moves across the area
  Saturday into early Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts will be
  light.

- The pattern will remain active through the remainder of the
  period with another chance of rain on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 203 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

High pressure are forecast to sit across the area through
Thursday night. Low clouds have cleared across most of the area
early this morning with the exception of Bureau and Putnam
Counties. The remaining cloud cover across the area is forecast
to clear through the day with mostly sunny skies area wide
during the afternoon. High temperatures today will be in the mid
50s once again. Low temperatures on Thursday night will be in
the 30s. Patchy fog is once again possible Thursday night with
overnight temperatures near the dewpoint for most of the night
and light winds across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Surface and upper level ridging will continue to bring quiet
weather to the region through Friday night. Temperatures will
be slightly warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

A closed 500 MB low currently over the Four Corners region will
slowly lift northeastward across the area and into the Great
Lakes by Sunday night. This will bring another chance for rain
to the area through the weekend. We`ll likely see a bands of
showers and the potential for isolated thunderstorms to lift
through the area from SW to NE Saturday PM and Saturday night
attendant to the warm advection and upper diffluence. Recent
model runs have trended lighter with rainfall amounts through
the weekend. NBM probabilities of greater than a quarter of an
inch across the area are 20 to 50 percent with the highest
amounts across the western half of the forecast area or west of
the Mississippi River. Probabilities of at least a half an inch
of rain are confined to southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri
and are about 20 to 30 percent.

Winds will increase in the wake of the storm system on Sunday
with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. High temperatures on Sunday
will be in the mid upper 50s across the area.

In the wake of this storm system, the flow aloft is forecast to
be zonal across the CONUS. Models disagree on the timing of a
another shortwave Monday into Monday night that at this time
looks to produce mainly clouds. The flow aloft will become more
amplified on Tuesday before a deep trough moves into the Plains
around the middle of next week and brings another potential for
rain to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

MVFR ceilings are lingering tonight at KDBQ and KMLI while KCID
and KMLI are VFR. High pressure has built into the area at the
surface and aloft and will bring quiet weather to the area
through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable
overnight. TAF sites that are clear overnight may develop MVFR
visibilities in fog into early tomorrow morning. Winds are
forecast to turn to the west with speeds of 5 to 10 knots
through the afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins/McClure
AVIATION...Cousins