214
FXUS63 KDVN 281704
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1104 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very windy conditions are expected today with gusts from 40 to
  50 MPH. A wind advisory is in effect for today.

- The strong winds, warm air and dead grasses will combine to
  produce extreme fire conditions. A red flag warning is in
  effect as well. Burning is strongly discouraged today.

- Active weather will continue into next week with two storm
  systems expected; both of which have the potential for a
  wintry mix.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

A 986 hPa surface low is forecast to move across the UP of
Michigan today dragging a cold front across our area this
afternoon into the evening. Ahead of this cold front, a day of
full sun is expected. Mixing today should aide in dropping Tds
and raising temperatures. As the cold front approaches, winds
increase aloft. This winds will be mixed down to the surface.
Looking at CAMs, these gusts don`t appear to be all that high.
This along with the HREF would suggest gusts to near 40 mph.
However, a closer look at model soundings suggests 42 to 44
knots at the top of the mixed layer. In fact, winds jump to
40kts not far agl. This will lead to sustained winds of 20 to
30 mph and gusts reaching 50 mph. With dead fuels and windy
conditions this will result in a fire danger risk as well. See
discussion below for more on this.

As the cold front approaches, moisture convergence is expected
to increase. There will be a period where deep mixing will
overlap the forcing on the front. Some CAMs show a little
instability, so this may lead to some rain or showers,
especially along and north of highway 20. CAMs have backed off
with the model reflectivity, but still think schc pops is a good
forecast for a few hours this afternoon and early evening.
Overnight CAA into the area will drop temps into the upper teens
and 20s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Ridging is expected to build into the area for the rest of the
weekend into the beginning of next week. A wave is expected to
transverse the area Sunday night into Monday bringing another
chance (30-45%) of precipitation to the area. Monday night into
Tuesday and Wednesday a stronger storm system is expected to
affect the area starting with WAA induced precip and then the
main SW low moving into our area as strong cyclogensis occurs.
This storm has the potential to bring over one inch of QPF
(40-55% NBM probability of exceedance) to our area through
early Wednesday morning. Temperatures this weekend are expected
to be in the 30s to 40s before warming back into the 50s ahead
of strong system early next week.

As far as precip goes on Sunday into Monday. NBM suggests a
rain/snow/fzra mix. This is due to timing differences in pop
arrivals overlapping below freezing temps with no ice aloft for
snow. Looking at ice nucleation in deterministic models it
appears ice will be there for snow as the precip arrives. As
such removed the small area of fzra across the far NW.
Otherwise, expect light QPF from this event. The main impact
from this would be any fzra which looks very low at this time.

The next system looks to be robust with strong WAA and forcing
moving into our area. The three main deterministic models have a
similar momentum field and suggest a closed upper level low as
the system moves over us. The ECM is slower with the low,
closing off just to our east. None the less, this will result in
the return of precip to the area. Guidance has a decent
deformation band that would result in snow with this system.
The main question is where this band sets up. One model has
western Iowa the other has NE MO. So a lot to keep an eye on
here.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds are strong
today with winds currently gusting to the 30 to 35 kt range at
17Z, and increasing into the afternoon. Some gusts could be
near 40 to 45 knots this afternoon. While gusts will come down
after sunset, we can still expect gusts well into the 20 knot
range. Some increase in high based VFR cigs are forecast this
evening, but left this as a scattered deck for now, as they are
not much of an affect to the low level conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Strong winds today will combine with above average temperatures
resulting in Extreme GFDI conditions across most of the area.
While RH values are not too low, dead fuels and strong winds are
sufficient to cause extreme fire behavior. There were some grass
fires reported yesterday in western Iowa and that threat looks
to continue today. SPC has the area in an elevated fire weather
risk, supporting the red flag warning. Parts of IL will need a
SPS today detailing the elevated fire weather risk as well.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ001-002-007-
     009-015>018-024.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ015-016-
     024>026-034-035.
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Ervin
FIRE WEATHER...Gibbs