521
FXUS63 KDVN 141748
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1248 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Passing system will bring light precipitation to locations
  north of Interstate 80, with those south likely to remain dry.

- Temperatures today will likely be the coolest of the work
  week, trending upwards into the mid-upper 70s mid-late week.
  Some might even see low 80s on Friday.

- A larger system will pass through the Upper Midwest Friday
  night through Saturday, bringing the potential for widespread
  rainfall and embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is
  expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Upper ridge remains situated over the Central US, with our area
falling on the northern part of the ridge, seeing upper level
westerly flow. A weak wave emerges off of the Central Rockies
this morning, passing through the Upper Mississippi River Valley
this evening and tonight. Ahead of that, we will continue to
see the influence of a slow moving boundary, which will help
pool moisture over the area. This will still be relatively low
moisture, which should prevent any rainfall through the day.
Rather, we will see cloud cover through the day due to this. We
will see a wide range in temperatures through the area today,
owing to the cloud cover. Areas under than clouds should remain
in the 60s, with those in our south seeing a little more breaks
in the clouds reaching the low-mid 70s.

As we go later into the day, moisture will increase, resulting from
better forcing with the approaching wave. Thus, we will start to see
precipitation chances increase through the afternoon and early
evening (15-30% chance). After sunset, we will see the best moisture
move in, which should allow us to saturate, largely in areas north
of Interstate 80. Thus, best chances for precipitation will be
overnight tonight (40-60% chance), but accumulation will be low,
generally around 0.10". Areas south of Interstate 80 are likely to
remain dry, or see drizzles. Temperatures will moderate in the 50s
tonight, owing to the remaining cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The aforementioned ridge will remain overhead for the next couple of
days, with a deepening wave over the Rockies. This will usher in
llvl southwesterly flow for the second half of the week, with the
bulk of it being seen on Friday. Not only will this increase
moisture throughout the area, but strong warm advection will result
in above normal temperatures working into the area once again.
Granted, we are not talking oppressive heat. Normal temperatures
during this time of the year are in the low 60s, with us currently
forecasting mid-upper 70s and possibly low 80s for some on Friday!

Deep wave ejects off of the Rockies Friday into Saturday,
passing northeast through the Upper Midwest. This will push the
ridge east of the area Friday into Saturday, dragging a cold
front through the area Saturday. Moisture will be in place ahead
of the front, resulting from strong warm advection, which will
allow for the potential for widespread rainfall. Granted, we are
not expecting heavy rainfall. Rather, we can expect a much
needed rainfall, but will generally be <0.50". Given how dry it
has been, this will we a welcome sight. Some embedded
thunderstorms will be possible as well. Severe weather is not
expected a this time, with better forcing and environment for
such south of the area. Behind this cold front, we are in for
quite the change on Sunday. Sunday will feature seasonal
temperatures and breeziness, with mostly clear skies. So, while
that will be normal for the time of the year, it will feel
starkly different than the above normal temperatures that we
have been seeing. Warmer clothing might be necessary, especially
during the evening/night.

Beyond the weekend, the pattern looks to remain relatively active.
Thus, temperatures will be up and down through the upcoming work
week. Although, there remains some uncertainty overall due to long
term guidance not being in agreement on the overall pattern.
CPC guidance favors above normal temperatures once again, with
low-end favorability for above normal precipitation. Too soon to
pinpoint when the next best chance for precipitation will be
beyond Friday night and Saturday AM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

With a frontal system stalled off to the south of the area, most
of the TAF sites will be subject to low VFR to MVFR CIGs and
spotty passing light showers through Wednesday morning,
especially CID and DBQ. There is a chance that BRL will stay dry
and VFR through midday Wed, and MLI in the middle. Generally
east to northeast sfc winds will maintain north of the front at
6-10 KTs through the TAF cycle as well.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...12