475
FXUS63 KDVN 201056
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
556 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant summer weather is forecast this weekend with low
  chances for isolated showers and storms. Much of the area
  should stay dry through Sunday.

- Increasing humidity next week will lead to occasional chances
  for scattered showers and storms Monday through Wednesday.

- Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi
  River. The Rock River will crest in the Moderate category at
  Joslin and Moline this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Nice weather is on tap this weekend with temperatures slightly
below normal in the upper 70s to low 80s. Aside from occasional
sprinkles or an isolated shower across the western outlook
area, dry conditions are expected today with continued light
winds.

A cut-off 500mb low will drift through the region, bringing a
chance for scattered showers and isolated storms (10-30%) on
Sunday, but with low areal coverage much of the outlook area
will stay dry. The highest chances for some measurable rain are
across the north (north of Highway 30) and also in the far west.
Weak 850-300mb steering flow will lead to slow moving
showers/storms and potential for localized downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For the upcoming week, temperatures will gradually warm up into
the low to mid 80s with increasing humidity levels to what is
more typical for the middle to end of July.

Cyclonic flow over the Midwest maintaining relatively cool
temperatures aloft, coupled with warm and humid conditions at
the surface, will lead to occasional chances for scattered
showers and storms through Wednesday (20-50%). The best chances
for rain will be during the afternoon and evening periods,
aligning with peak daytime instability. The overall severe
weather threat appears low due to weak shear with 500mb winds
under 30 kts. By late in the week, expect near normal
temperatures with a return to dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

High pressure over the region will lead to light winds and
prevailing VFR through the day. A few sprinkles or very brief
light showers are possible near CID and BRL but much of the
precipitation will struggle to reach the ground. Shallow fog may
develop late tonight; however, confidence is low on the
potential extent and severity.

&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech