920
FXUS63 KDVN 041028
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
528 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke will continue aloft through today, but uncertainty on
  lower level smoke to advect back from the east across some
  areas and impact the surface with air quality issues mainly
  this morning.

- Gradual temp moderation through the 80s this week, and
  possibly some 90s by Thursday or Friday. There will be at
  spotty rain chances (<20 percent) at times Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

High pressure over the Great Lakes region continues to provide dry
conditions early today over eastern Iowa through the Great
Lakes, along with very light wind flow. A gradual moistening of
the air mass has occurred in the past 24 hours, likely from
mature plant-life/crops, but we`re still dealing with dew point
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, which is quite
comfortable. Lows tonight are hovering near 60 in most spots.
High cloud cover is fairly widespread but thin. Visibility
reports as of 2 AM are between 3 and 6 miles in most spots in
Iowa and Illinois, with lower conditions more common in
Wisconsin. This lower visibility is partially due to smoke near
the surface, which the RAP smoke forecast shows a glancing blow
of this smoke this morning. At this time, we are not forecast to
see dense surface smoke, but it`s worth keeping an eye on
concentrations this morning. By afternoon, the RAP smoke model
shifts this area north, with Wisconsin seeing a more persistent
impact through the day.

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are forecast both today and
Tuesday.  While dry weather is forecast today, Tuesday may see a few
very isolated showers/storms form at peak heating, mainly in our far
eastern CWA. This is contingent on a potential lake breeze being in
place, as other features are less supportive of any activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Warmer weather will begin moving into the region Wednesday and
Thursday as highs return to the mid and upper 80s, along with dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat index readings above
95 will be possible starting Thursday.

The large upper high pressure over the southwestern CONUS will be
increasing in size, and strength during this mid week period.
Meanwhile, strengthening zonal flow over the northern CONUS will
begin shifting the storm track slowly towards Iowa and the central
Cornbelt later in the week, and especially towards day 6-8.  This
hot a humid air mass will keep us watching for any propagating
MCS/storms starting Friday night, but this cold frontal passage
Sunday night and Monday appears to be the best chance (30-50%) of
rain in the week ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A combination of smoke and light fog will bring mainly MVFR
visibilities of 3-6 miles to eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois
through mid morning, before this lifts to VFR today. High
pressure will keep winds light today, mainly from the southeast.
The smoke should moved towards Wisconsin today, with VFR weather
from 15-16Z onward through tonight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin