088
FXUS63 KDVN 280525
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1125 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant winter storm will impact the area Friday night
  through Saturday night. There are moderate to high
  probabilities (60-90%) for at least 8 inches of snow
  (especially along/north of I-80). Winter storm warnings have
  been issued for parts of the area with additional warnings
  possible.

- Below normal temperatures will be seen next week with the
  coldest day being Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Mainly quiet and colder than normal with decreasing winds across the
area through sunset Friday. A weak disturbance rotating down through
Wisconsin into northern Illinois tonight may result in some flurries
across far northwest Illinois. Attention then turns to the weekend
system.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Friday night through Saturday night
Assessment...a near certainty (>99%) of a significant winter storm
impacting the area

The much discussed and advertised winter storm will impact the area
starting Friday night and continuing into Saturday night.

Dry air over the area will initially delay the start of the snow
until mid to late evening as top-down saturation occurs. However,
given the forcing present snow will quickly commence once the dry
layer becomes thin enough.

Snow will overspread the area from west to east through sunrise
Saturday. Saturday night snow will slowly end from west to east with
most areas being dry by sunrise Sunday.

Given the long duration of the event, snowfall rates look to remain
under 1 inch/hour. During the passage of the low center late
Saturday afternoon/evening, snowfall rates may tick up to 1-1.5
inches/hour for a few hours, especially near the track of the low.

Probabilistic data indicates there is a 60-90% chance of seeing
snowfall amounts exceeding 8 inches along/north of I-80. Stronger
forcing may result in localized bands of snow approaching or
exceeding 10 inches.

If the storm track would shift a bit further south (which has a 30-
40% probability of occurring) then the higher snowfall amounts (>8
inches) would include areas south of I-80.

Right now overall storm totals look to be around 6 inches south of a
Keosauqua, IA to Macomb, IL line; 6-8 inches north of that line to
just south of the I-80 corridor; then 8+ inches from the I-80
corridor on north.

Sunday through Thursday
Assessment...near certainty (>95%) confidence of below normal
temperatures

Northwest flow with fresh snow cover and a secondary polar airmass
will help keep temperatures below normal for next week.

Some lingering light snow or flurries may be seen through mid-
morning Sunday as the weekend storm system departs the area.

Outside of a weak system Monday afternoon/evening that potentially
could give a dusting of snow, much of next week looks to be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

An MVFR stratus deck continues to linger over the northwestern
portions of the region late this evening, mainly impacting areas
from IOW to OLZ, including the CID TAF terminal. The latest RAP
relative humidity progs suggest this stratus deck will slowly
dissipate over the next few hours, so eventually, CID will go to
VFR likely around 07-08z. High clouds will build in ahead of a
winter storm that will impact our region Friday night through
Saturday night. The onset of the snow should be after 00z
Saturday, which is expected to expand and intensify into
Saturday morning. Winds Friday will generally be light and
variable as an area of high pressure sweeps through the area.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     IAZ040-051-052-063-064-076-077-087-088.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight Friday night to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for IAZ041-042-053-054-065>068-078.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late
     Saturday night for IAZ089-098-099.
IL...Winter Storm Warning from midnight Friday night to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late
     Saturday night for ILZ025-026-034-035.
MO...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late
     Saturday night for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Schultz