233
FXUS63 KDTX 040355
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1155 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures gradually moderate to above normal throughout
mid week. By late week, very warm and humid conditions return.

- Hazy skies remain likely through Monday due to Canadian wildfire
smoke.

- Mostly dry weather anticipated through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Canadian wildfire smoke will persist across the southeast Michigan
airspace tonight and Monday, contributing to hazy conditions at
times. This may result in intermittent reduction of visibility into
the 4 to 6 mile range. Otherwise, continued dry and stable
conditions governed by prevailing high pressure ensures limited
cloud development and light winds featuring an east/southeast
component through the period.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms will occur through the
duration of the TAF period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

DISCUSSION...

High pressure continues to dominate across the region, with light
winds, diurnal cumulus, and the continuation of hazy skies as
wildfire smoke continues to pivot across the region. Some of this
smoke does appear to be making it down to the surface leading to air
quality concerns. Tomorrow through Tuesday, another area of high
pressure drop southeast across Ontario, helping to reinforce and
bring an slight uptick to easterly flow. It will take some time for
the lingering wildfire smoke to depart the area, so it does appear
we will be dealing with lingering air quality issues through at
least tomorrow. A few high-res models attempt to develop a few
pockets of diurnal convection late Monday and Tuesday afternoon,
especially near lake breeze boundaries, but there is little to no
shear within the column to help support or maintain updrafts. Thus,
have maintained a dry forecast for now.

As we progress through the middle/end of the week, the heat and
humidity gradually return as high pressure gradually moves over the
Northeast and return flow slowly works back into the region.
Southeast lower Michigan is far removed from any main large-scale
synoptic features, so precipitation chances remain quite low. If we
do see any convective activity this week, it will likely be tied to
transient mesoscale features and/or lake breeze boundaries.

MARINE...

Quiet weather continues through mid week as high pressure lingers
over the region. Winds will be light and variable today before
becoming easterly on Monday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...JA
MARINE.......DRK


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