069
FXUS63 KDTX 302302
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
702 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Classic summer weather pattern during the middle to end of the
week with daytime temperatures hovering in the low to mid into the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...

Steady decline in convective potential going forward late this
evening, as earlier activity offers improving stability amidst a
standard reduction thru loss of daytime heating. There remains low
potential, particularly in the vicinity of FNT, as outflow lifts
across the area. Some intervals of lower cloud remain plausible
during this time given the elevated low level moisture content.
Gradually drier low level conditions develop overnight with the
passage of a weak cold front. Thicker mid level cloud will arrive
late tonight, with an outside shot for a shower across the Detroit
airspace with the passage of a mid level trough. This cloud clears
with a transition toward high based VFR diurnal cu Tuesday. Modest
westerly winds overnight increase to around 12 knots Tuesday.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Additional thunderstorm development appears
unlikely as stability increases with time going forward early
tonight.

 THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for cigs aob 5kft late this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

DISCUSSION...

Another day featuring high CAPE (pushing 3000 J/kg per SPC
mesoanalysis) and low shear (generally around 20 knots) in a very
moist environment with surface dewpoints into the low 70s and PWATs
exceeding 1.7 inches. Early day clouds helped prevent some
destabilization locally, but clearer skies over SW lower lead to
rapid destabilization in the vicinity of a prefrontal trough which
quickly lead to a line of showers and thunderstorms developing. A
mid level pocket of dry air sliding over is also to steepen mid
level lapse rates helping some storms to get a little better
organized. As we move through the late afternoon and evening, the
current line of convection will continue eastward with
isolated/scattered storms developing ahead of it. Isolated cells may
become strong to severe with pulse type storms producing wet
microbursts. So far majority of the storms have struggled to produce
winds over 30 knots. These storms are also slow moving tracking
eastward around 20 mph so heavy rain and localized flooding will
also be a concern. Bulk of the activity will come to an end between
5-7pm today with a few isolated showers/storms possibly lingering
until the surface cold front pushes through after 8pm.

Longwave trough axis swing through tonight into Tuesday morning.
Models try to keep some POPs going through the night along the lead
edge of the trough but there isn`t much support for additional
activity with instability trending toward zero and synoptic forcing
lacking. Will trend POPs down to slight chance for now to give a
chance to see the trough upstream and whether its carrying any
showers with it.

Rest of the week gets quieter as the ridge starts building back
through the Plains and sliding eastward through the Mid MS Valley.
We`ll largely be in northwesterly flow through the week with a few
waves tracking through Canada trying to send some fronts into the
region. So can`t rule out a few showers through the week but will
take a more notable system like on Sunday to bring more widespread
POPs to the region.

MARINE...

A cold front brings scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon with activity gradually winding down tonight as the front
clears the area. Light south wind shifts to westerly behind the
front, peaking at 15 to 20 kt on Tuesday afternoon. High pressure
over the Midwest maintains prevailing westerly wind over the Great
Lakes through mid-week. A weak cold front sinks across the area late
Wednesday into Thursday with post-frontal northwest wind likely to
remain light. High pressure builds across the region on Friday to
provide light wind and waves.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......TF


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