034
FXUS63 KDTX 101049
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
649 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost early this morning in the non-urban areas and away from the
lakeshores.

- Temperatures soaring into the upper 70s Friday, 10 to 15 degrees
above normal.

-A cold front then crosses Friday evening/early Saturday bringing
cooler temps and a slight chance for isolated showers.

- Better rain chances for the second half of the weekend into early
next week, as well as much colder temperatures arriving.

&&

.AVIATION...

Surface high pressure will bring VFR conditions to Southeast
Michigan today and tonight. There has been very little lake effect
stratocumulus that has survived any inland trek. Wind directions will
be light northerly today before flipping to the south this evening.
Low confidence in any shallow ground based br Friday morning.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms today through Thursday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

DISCUSSION...

High pressure drifts directly overhead through today maintaining
light to calm winds across the area. This also helps to promote
sunnier skies again today which supports respectable temperature
recovery back into the low 60s. With high pressure pulling east by
tonight, light but steady south-southwest winds develop as height
rises and subsequent WAA cascade into southern lower MI, which
together should greatly limit if not outright prevent frost
development late tonight. Instead lows remaining within the 40s,
albeit lower 40s, are generally favored.

Ridge axis crosses SE MI daytime Friday peaking 850mb temps between
12-14C and allowing highs well into the 70s to near 80. This well
mixed warm sector results in another breezy day with afternoon gusts
topping out between 25-30mph- potentially near 35mph in the Thumb.
Cold front tied to a shortwave sliding across northern Ontario has
trended a bit faster amongst model solutions with it arriving by
early Friday night. Shower potential along this boundary continues
to look limited at best due to a lack of upper support given its
detachment from the parent wave, so have opted to maintain the
slight chance PoPs (15-20%).

Boundary stalls out around the Toledo area becoming the focal point
for developing low pressure tied to a second, stronger shortwave
dropping out of Canada Saturday night. Degree of shower coverage is
a point of uncertainty owing to large variation in model outcomes
with the timing and placement of this developing low. That said,
there has been some convergence on a tighter baroclinic focused
south of I-69 generating numerous showers over these locales Sunday
morning before the surface low and fgen quickly swings into the
eastern Great Lakes. Additional scattered showers then would become
possible latter half of Sunday over all of SE MI as the main
mid/upper trough drops over the central Great Lakes. Upper troughing
broadens over the eastern CONUS through the first half of next work
week supporting lingering scattered shower chances particularly over
the Thumb due to additional moisture flux of the lake. 850mb temps
fall into the negative single digits (C) within this trough keeping
highs only in the 50s. Overnight low temps will depend on
clouds/rain though given the airmass, any drying/clearing likely
would support frost and/or a freeze.

MARINE...

High pressure centered over the Central Great Lakes will lead to
light winds. The light winds will be short lived however, as strong
southwest winds develop to end the work week ahead of a cold front,
which moves through Friday evening/Friday night. Expecting the
southwest winds Thursday night into Friday to top between 25-30
knots. There is a lot of warm air streaming which should lead to
stable profiles to help limit the top end of the winds.  Developing
numerous showers over the weekend into early next week as a very
cold airmass takes hold, with gusty winds of 25 to 30 knots
continuing. With the northeast to north flow, large waves will
impact the nearshore waters of Lake Huron in the Sunday-Tuesday time
frame.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ047-048-053-054-
     060>062-068-069-075-082.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......SF


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