184
FXUS63 KDTX 031749
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1249 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions today as a cold front crosses the region in the
late morning. Peak gusts are expected to fall in the 30 to 40 MPH
range.

- Chances for rain favored towards northern half of the region
Monday morning.

- Quiet weather Tuesday with warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...

Cold front has passed through the area this morning which has
quickly dried out the airmass leaving only few-sct cu around. Winds
have become gusty out of the west, peaking around 25 to 30 knots
which will continue into this evening. Winds will drop off after
dark  to less than 10 knots while a secondary low level jet flares
up from 1-5kft so another brief period of low level wind shear has
been added for a few hours tonight. Clear skies tonight will give
way to increasing mid/high clouds Tuesday in advance of the next
system.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms today through Monday.
Strengthening westerly winds (270-280 deg) this afternoon following
the cold front will be near crosswind thresholds.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  Low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon and
   evening.

*  Moderate for crosswind thresholds this afternoon out of 280
   direction.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

DISCUSSION...

Medium range guidance supports high index flow across central North
America and the Great Lakes throughout the upcoming next 7 days.
High periodicity of shortwaves is anticipated with shorter duration
weather events.

Exit region to very strong, anticyclonically curved upper level jet
stream is now carving into the western to central Great Lakes this
morning. Observational datasets, including satellite imagery and
composite reflectivity mosaic, support a far-ranging band of frontal
rain from James Bay region arcing down to portions of Minnesota and
Iowa.  Most recent model data suggests 700mb frontogenesis is a
little stronger than earlier projections while low level-850mb
frontogenesis is non existent. No surprises with guidance than
suggests a chance of rain here primarily between 09-15Z. Expecting
the midlevel fgen to wane during that time window based on model
data, with geopotential height fall forcing to flash rapidly to the
south and east away from the forecast area. Current chance PoPs are
good considering many observing sites are reporting dry conditions
over southern Wisconsin. Any QPF south of I 69 is expected to be
light/negligible.

Surface winds have been slow to increase overnight with windgusts of
20 to 30 mph only being reported across portions of northern Lower
Michigan with higher elevation and those areas immediately downwind
of Lake Michigan. Entrance region to low level jet will spread
across the area in the predawn hours coincident to the increase in
radar returns. It remains possible that evaporation may help
downward momentum fluxing and bring some stronger gusts to the
surface this morning. Daytime heating and cold advection in the wake
of the cold front will then allow for increasing boundary layer
heights with steepened lapse rates. Hires based mixing based
technique probabilities continue to suggest 30 to 35 mph this
afternoon with the best potential for strongest winds downwind of
Saginaw Bay over the northern Thumb.

Very broad upper level and surface based ridging forecasted to
expand across Lower Michigan late Monday through early Wednesday.
Bottom line is dry weather with temperatures in the upper 50s
Tuesday and potentially lower 60s across Metro Detroit southward
Wednesday.

Models are in good agreement for a Clipper System to track through
the northern Great Lakes Wednesday. Inbound trajectory from the
northwest into the area suggests a very short residence time and
short duration of upward vertical motion. Best forcing at this time
appears to be midlevel warm advection set for 03-12z Wednesday
morning. The Euro now arrived with more aggressive solution
regarding the southward track of the main parent absolute vorticity
anomaly. Will be saying this a lot this winter, but will be taking a
very conservative wait and see approach with Euro forecasts on
absolute vorticity. Breezy westerlies will be possible late
Wednesday.

Continuing low amplitude high index flow suggests progressive
ridging on Thursday before two more systems possibly Friday and
Sunday. At this point, precipitation chances Friday once again appear
fleeting with forward sloping cold frontal dynamics.

MARINE...

A cold front remains on track to move across the Great Lakes this
morning and afternoon, veering wind direction from west-southwest to
west-northwest. Sustained wind speeds across Lake Huron ranging from
25 to 30 knots with gusts around 35 knots will continue in the wake
of the front given the better mixing depths with the subtle boost in
cold air advection. There will be a window this afternoon and
evening across north and north-central Lake Huron to see wind gust
potential increase up to 40 knots at times, given the more favorable
WNW fetch. A Gale Warning remains in effect across the Saginaw Bay
and Lake Huron. For locations south, Small Craft Advisories also
remain in place as gust potential holds shy of gales. Last,
widespread rain showers are expected along the cold front through
the morning and early afternoon hours.

A ridge of high pressure will build in tomorrow, bringing respite
from unsettled conditions. A second low pressure system is then
expected to move across northern lower Michigan by Wednesday , which
will again elevate winds and gusts through the midweek period. Gusts
to 30 knots will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ361>363-421-441-
     462>464.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LHZ422.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ444.

     Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......CB


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