535
FXUS63 KDTX 091934
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
334 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures will exist throughout the upcoming work
week. Highs peaking near 60 degrees Monday and again on Thursday.
Potential for highs to climb well into the 60s by Friday.

- Dry through the week with the next chance of showers arriving
Friday night ahead of the next low pressure system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet weather through the bulk of the upcoming week as high pressure
dominates over the Great Lakes. This comes in two phases as an
initial ridge gets forced out Tuesday by a weak cold front, but a
second ridge bulks in right behind it holding through the rest of
the week. The main story will the above normal temperatures with
highs reaching or exceeding 60F several times. A large low pressure
system then looks to move in for the weekend bringing the next
chance of precipitation.

Surface ridge sliding through the OH/TN valleys under confluent flow
aloft is resulting in quiet weather today while increasing heights
aloft are helping the current warming trend boost highs into the low
50s today. Split flow pattern continues into Monday as active
northern stream remains north of the international border and the
southern stream remains over the Gulf coast. Monday will get an
extra boost in temperatures as the ridge slides east putting us into
the regions of deeper southwesterly flow and at the same time, a
northern stream shortwave tracking along the border will push a dry
cold front into the Midwest with a tightening gradient aiding WAA
further. With 850mb temps rising to 8-10C and the mixed layer
expected to reach to those levels, highs should get above 60F for
most locations. The front will only briefly knock temps back down
into the mid 40s Wednesday, still above average, before ridging
builds back over the area for the end of the week. Strengthening
southerly flow in advance of the aforementioned weekend low with a
50kt llj will push 850mb temps to around 10C across the area at
times this weekend which NBM is showing multiple days in a row above
60F.

Attention then turns to the strong low pressure system models for
the weekend models have been advertising for a few days now. Deep
longwave trough moving inland off the Pacific Thursday will reach
the Plains by late Friday while likely maturing at this time. The
occluding low may then sling the warm front up through the region
Friday night into Saturday while lifting northeastward through the
Midwest. Could see a couple rounds of showers and/or thunderstorms
as the system works through depending how the upper level low
develops and where the surface low tracks.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak cold front eases south across Lake Huron this evening which
supports stronger SW gradient winds with marginal mixing potential
as a low-level jet transits the region featuring 35-40 knot flow
within the lowest 2 kft AWL. The elevated sustain winds should help
generate occasional 5+ ft wave heights until late tonight for the
unfrozen waters of Outer Saginaw Bay and the tip of The Thumb.
Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the two nearshore zones. Warmer
air advances northward again late tonight as the front retreats by
Monday which coincides with the departure of the LLJ. This briefly
restores more tranquil conditions across the central Great Lakes for
Monday. Winds then back toward the south, with a slight uptick in
speeds Monday afternoon, generally AOB 15 knots. A low pressure
system tracking along the central US/CAN border moves into northern
Lake Superior Monday evening. This leads to stronger gradient flow
and the potential for gusts to 30 knots for northern Lake Huron
through Tuesday, especially as the system`s cold front crosses
through. High pressure then builds into the region Tuesday evening
and Wednesday offering notably weaker ESE flow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

AVIATION...

Weak low pressure system passes to the north this evening and
tonight bringing VFR conditions with a steady southwest flow with
mostly clear skies. The system will draw in a cold front into the
area leading to a few mid/high clouds with the potential for gusts of
20-25 knots this afternoon into the early evening. Low level jet
winds to increase to 45-50 knots a nocturnal stability develops this
evening tonight. This will lead to a period of LLWS concerns, mainly
from PTK and south where lighter surface winds are expected during
the first half of tonight. Otherwise, VFR skies prevail into
tomorrow.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......KGK
AVIATION.....AA


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