729
FNUS73 KDMX 161304
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Bays Branch Pasture...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
804 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Strong winds will surge in from the northwest today, reaching
speeds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to around 45 MPH by this afternoon.
Cooler temperatures will result in relative humidity minimum
values around 30%. Spring greenup will lessen any uncontrollable
fire spread concerns.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered showers
                    early in the morning, then isolated showers in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 75.
RH..................44 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 14 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Windy. West winds 14 to 23
                    mph increasing to 24 to 31 mph with gusts to
                    around 44 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 22 to 29 mph increasing to 44 to 45 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /37800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /76200 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (147700 knot-ft) early in the
                    afternoon, then increasing to excellent (199300
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon decreasing to
                    excellent (177100 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................0.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60  65  70  60  49  39  54  66  80  78
Weather cov.....ISO SCT SCT ISO             ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW              RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  64  66  69  73  73  73  71  69  67
RH..............44  43  40  37  33  34  32  35  38  42
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..14  17  20  23  24  26  29  31  31  31
20 FT wind gust.22  28  31  32  36  39  41  43  44  44
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.9 3.0 3.3 5.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 5.2 4.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.22  28  29  26  32  38  41  45  44  45
GFDI............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Smoke Dispersal.38  71  74  76  148 238 262 285 199 177
Smoke Cat.......PR  GD  GD  GD  VGD EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers early in the evening, then scattered
                    sprinkles late in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 20 to 29 mph with gusts to
                    around 43 mph shifting to the northwest around
                    18 mph with gusts to around 29 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 35 to 44 mph shifting to the northwest 28
                    to 33 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (105000 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    excellent (82200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to good (51800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night overnight.
GFDI................0.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81  87  86  84  82  79  77  75  70  64  67  69
Weather cov.....ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  60  58  55  53  52  51  50  50  49  48  48
RH..............46  49  53  59  64  63  66  68  68  72  71  71
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..29  25  25  25  23  23  21  20  20  18  18  18
20 FT wind gust.43  40  38  36  35  32  31  29  29  29  28  28
Mix hgt (kft)...4.9 4.4 4.6 3.8 3.7 3.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.9 2.5 2.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.44  41  40  36  38  37  35  33  30  32  30  28
GFDI............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Smoke Dispersal.186 160 160 117 122 105 69  66  52  82  65  56
Smoke Cat.......EXL EXL EXL VGD VGD VGD GD  GD  FR  GD  GD  FR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Max 69.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 13 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (60400 knot-ft).
GFDI................0.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  69  62  58  52  34  23  16  13  11  11  10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  48  49  50  53  55  59  62  64  66  68  68
RH..............73  71  72  70  64  61  53  48  44  41  40  38
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..18  17  17  17  17  16  16  16  15  15  14  13
20 FT wind gust.26  24  25  24  24  23  23  23  22  22  21  18
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.29  28  28  28  25  24  23  23  24  23  21  20
GFDI............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Smoke Dispersal.60  71  69  71  70  71  73  79  87  87  81  70
Smoke Cat.......GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

$$
Forecaster...Lee
Requested by...Tanner Venteicher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514138.0/DMX
.DELDT 05/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tanner.venteicher@dnr.iowa.gov