099
FXUS63 KDMX 052327
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
627 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated Fire Danger into early Evening
- Cooler & Breezy with some elevated fire danger conditions over
  the region, but highest northeast
- Remainder of period Monday through Saturday remains dry with
  potential increase in fire danger late week/Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.Short Term /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Confidence: High

Main concerns early continue to be the fire danger; especially west
areas where RFW continues and into central Iowa as well.  Details
can be found in the fire weather section of this AFD. Winds have
been the main concern and will remain strong along the approaching
boundary for a few hours. By 23 to 00z, the winds will decouple and
gradually drop down this evening as we shift to a more west
northwest direction. Winds may briefly reach 30 mph sustained with
gusts over 40 mph this afternoon until the front passes or we reach
the late afternoon hours (23z). After unseasonably warm temperatures
today, tonight will see a quick drop in temperature as a cooler
airmass drops into the state. Lows tonight will drop to the mid 40s
north to the lower 50s southeast. Though Sunday is expected to
be much cooler, the drier air in the afternoon as dew points
fall to the upper 20s north to the lower to mid 30s southeast,
an elevated fire danger will continue over most of the region
due to the lower RH values and potential for winds to gust over
25 mph during the late morning to afternoon hours. For now, will
likely be addressing this with another special weather
statement. Though SPC has a wide net over the region tomorrow,
this may actually be more confined to the northeast half of our
area where winds would be higher. Though, the dry conditions
over most of the region will result in some risk region wide.
Tomorrow night the high will settle into the region with light
winds and cool overnight mins. There may even be some frost in
low lying areas if we can cool into the lower 30s there and have
added to grids for the overnight hours Sunday night.

.Long Term /Monday through Saturday/...

Confidence: High

Little change to the pattern is seen moving forward. As the high
builds east, we will see return southwest flow Tuesday through
Thursday as lee side troughing increases over the Rockies. Winds
appear to be generally light until later in the period around Friday
into the weekend. As temperatures warm up again late week into
Saturday, we may see another day of highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s with relatively low RH on Saturday. At this point in time, the
deterministic EC/GFS vary quite a bit with the EC not as robust on
winds and temperatures. Thus, the bulk of the forecast has high
confidence but the forecast details into Saturday are a bit muddled
for now. Overall highs next week will be well into the 70s and 80s
once again, which is about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for
the first full week of October. No precipitation is in the
offing, so the much drier than normal conditions will persist.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Gusty conditions remain, with the highest gusts generally around
30-35 across much of the state. As the cold front, currently
passing into the southeast half of the state, moves out of the
region, will continue to see winds shifting more northwesterly
tonight and into Sunday. These winds will gradually turn less
breezy over the next few hours, though will increase by mid-late
morning Sunday with gusts upwards of 20-25 knots largely
expected. Otherwise, outside of lingering high clouds, skies
will clear out across the state this evening, and remain through
the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The RFW continues for Crawford and Sac counties into this evening.
This remains the area with the greatest chance for the lowest
relative humidity values combined with the strongest winds for
an a few hours into the evening there.

A special weather statement continues for the rest of the forecast
area for increasingly strong winds and the elevated fire danger
into the evening. Temperatures have ramped up as expected, but
mixing has not significantly dropped dew points/RH values to
critical levels as of yet. However, that being said, there will
be a 2 to 3 hour window this afternoon from about 2 to 5 pm
over central Iowa where strong winds and low enough RH combined
with cured crops which could still result in high fire growth
where any accidental fire occurs.

High fire growth is possible/likely all areas where cured vegetation
such as cropland given the gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph today.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ033-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REV
AVIATION...Bury
FIRE WEATHER...REV