651
FXUS63 KDMX 272019
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
319 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decreasing chances for overnight showers/t-storms as activity
  continues to shift south in latest guidance.

- Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s Friday with winds
  gusting 35-40 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions.

- Larger system to bring more widespread precipitation chances
  to the area Friday evening through the weekend. As
  temperatures drop snow may mix in over far northern Iowa by
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Early morning convection has lingered across very far southern Iowa
into this afternoon with a couple isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere sunshine has been plentiful, allowing for
temperatures to quickly warm into the mid to upper 60s to near
70. The previous severe weather outlooks issued by the storm
prediction center remain in place this afternoon with the
removal of the small slight risk and CAMs continue to diminish
chances for any thunderstorms development in the area. Model
soundings indicate a rather significant cap to overcome and
elevated CAPE will likely not be realized due to that. Any
convective development in several iterations of the most recent
CAM guidance is more shower-y in nature and pushed east of the
area. Should anything overcome the cap overnight, hail would be
the primary hazard.

Warm air advection cranks up into Friday and temperatures are
expected to soar into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. With
dry low levels in expect deep mixing through the day. Model
soundings show winds 35-40+ kts in the middle to top of the mixing
layer. As such, expect gusts 35-40 mph to mix down, making for a
breezy day. The warm temperatures and breezy conditions will result
in elevated fire weather conditions given the continued cured fuels,
since green up has not yet occurred. Relative humidity bottoms out
near 40-45% in the afternoon. Deeper mixing could pull those down a
a bit and will be monitored closely tomorrow.

A narrow baroclinic zone sets up across northwest Iowa Friday
evening with a surface low to the northeast and another to the
southwest. CAMs are much more subdued with any development across
northwest Iowa with this compared to recent CAM runs. By Saturday
the low across the central plains lifts towards Iowa with increasing
and more widespread precipitation chances. With modest
instability an elevated hail threat is possible, however the
overall severe potential is low. As cooler air filters in on
Sunday and the deformation zone passes across the area,  Euro
and GFS pull a band of snow north of the area across southern Minnesota.
Will monitor closely for shifts, but at this time guidance
suggests that snow may mix in but accumulations are unlikely.
The upcoming week looks to remain active with several systems
set to move across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Storm
development this evening looks less likley and at this time is
not expected to impact any TAF sites. Some model guidance does
pull an MVFR to even IFR stratus deck across eastern to northern
Iowa overnight, however at this time appears overdone so have
kept stratus mentions at VFR for now. We`ll need to watch this
closely overnight. Wind will increase across southern Iowa
Friday morning with gusts 25-30+ kts, expanding central and
north after the current period. LLWS also possible for a brief
period as winds increase early Friday morning, however
confidence in occurrence is low so have kept from TAFs for now.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff