395
FXUS63 KDMX 101731
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms early this morning, mainly
  southeastern half of Iowa, exiting our area before noon.

- Highs in the 60s to 70s are forecast each day for the next
  week, except on Sunday when temperatures will rise into the
  lower 80s across parts of western into southern Iowa.

- After this morning, the forecast is dry through Saturday
  night then low (20-30%) rain chances return around Sunday and
  Sunday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms has increased in the last
couple of hours and have updated the forecast to reflect higher
POPs (50-70%) with scattered thunder early this morning. Rain is
still expected to depart southeastward out of our service area
before noon. Otherwise, little change to the ongoing forecast.
Modestly elevated fire weather concerns in our north and
northwest this afternoon, with RH minima near 30% and wind
gusting to around 20 MPH at times. Tonight/early Saturday looks
good for radiational cooling with a dry sounding and very light
winds, so maintained a low temperature forecast below model
consensus, but still mostly low to mid 40s with perhaps upper
30s in some northern spots, so have not included any frost
mention.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Rest of Today into Friday Morning...The Great Lakes high that
we have been discussing the last few discussions has now moved
into the northeast CONUS. With this our pattern will start to
shift as a clipper like low moves from Canada down into the
Midwest. Clear to mostly clear skies with favorable mixing and a
tightening pressure gradient has allowed today to be gusty. As
the low moves down it will drag a cold front along with it. This
will provide a shift in winds from the south to the north and
lift. Therefore, some isolated to scattered showers and storms
are expected with this frontal passage overnight. Forecast
profiles continue to show elevated instability with mainly speed
shear within the saturated layer. These profiles would allow
for some isolated thunder and there is enough skinny CAPE that
some hail cannot be ruled out. With the lack of deeper near
surface saturation storms are not expected to be surface based
expectations, so strong winds are not expected in stronger
storms.

Friday through Next Week... Behind the frontal passage high
pressure will move back in and return us to the dry weather we
have had the past few days. This dry air will allow for some
lower RH values such that SPC has added an elevated fire weather
risk across parts of northwest Iowa on Friday. Sunday will be
when things start to change again due to a large fall low. This
low will bring in ample warm air advection. So, Sunday will
likely be the warmest day of the next week with some 80s
possible across western and southern Iowa. This warm air
advection will be associated with a large low moving across the
Northern Plains into southern Canada keeping us solidly in the
warm sector. This is a classic fall system with snow expected on
the cold side in parts of the intermountain west and maybe even
western parts of the Northern Plains. Down here though since we
remain this the warm sector and far from the low center impacts
will be much less. It will be the warmer air for sure and the
broader lift associated with frontal passages that will give
another chance for rain late Sunday. This system will have
widespread rain with it, the question is more how far south will
the rain get? Looking to our north is where is seems likely,
but there is much more spread within global ensembles on how
far south it gets. So best chances across northern Iowa and
confidence gets lower farther south in the state. Looking ahead
to next week ensemble spread remain high for the rest of the
week with another system possible in the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Extended MVFR cigs for KOTM in the short term with some
lingering MVFR immediately behind the wind shift. VFR will then
prevail for all sites for the remainder of the period with
northerly winds shifting through the morning hours, becoming
southeasterly by 18z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
DISCUSSION...NC
AVIATION...Jimenez