382
FXUS63 KDMX 092331
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
631 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms tonight into Friday
  morning. Chances are the highest across eastern and southern
  Iowa.

- Highs near to above normal in the 60s to 70s are expected over
  the next week, with near 80 Sunday.

- Dry forecast returns Friday afternoon through Sunday, with the
  next chance of rain Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Rest of Today into Friday Morning...The Great Lakes high that
we have been discussing the last few discussions has now moved
into the northeast CONUS. With this our pattern will start to
shift as a clipper like low moves from Canada down into the
Midwest. Clear to mostly clear skies with favorable mixing and a
tightening pressure gradient has allowed today to be gusty. As
the low moves down it will drag a cold front along with it. This
will provide a shift in winds from the south to the north and
lift. Therefore, some isolated to scattered showers and storms
are expected with this frontal passage overnight. Forecast
profiles continue to show elevated instability with mainly speed
shear within the saturated layer. These profiles would allow
for some isolated thunder and there is enough skinny CAPE that
some hail cannot be ruled out. With the lack of deeper near
surface saturation storms are not expected to be surface based
expectations, so strong winds are not expected in stronger
storms.

Friday through Next Week... Behind the frontal passage high
pressure will move back in and return us to the dry weather we
have had the past few days. This dry air will allow for some
lower RH values such that SPC has added an elevated fire weather
risk across parts of northwest Iowa on Friday. Sunday will be
when things start to change again due to a large fall low. This
low will bring in ample warm air advection. So, Sunday will
likely be the warmest day of the next week with some 80s
possible across western and southern Iowa. This warm air
advection will be associated with a large low moving across the
Northern Plains into southern Canada keeping us solidly in the
warm sector. This is a classic fall system with snow expected on
the cold side in parts of the intermountain west and maybe even
western parts of the Northern Plains. Down here though since we
remain this the warm sector and far from the low center impacts
will be much less. It will be the warmer air for sure and the
broader lift associated with frontal passages that will give
another chance for rain late Sunday. This system will have
widespread rain with it, the question is more how far south will
the rain get? Looking to our north is where is seems likely,
but there is much more spread within global ensembles on how
far south it gets. So best chances across northern Iowa and
confidence gets lower farther south in the state. Looking ahead
to next week ensemble spread remain high for the rest of the
week with another system possible in the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the evening. After 06z
scattered showers will develop across the southeast half of Iowa
with impacts to KDSM/KALO/KOTM. Precipitation will initially
battle dry air before fully saturating. Due to the scattered
nature of convection, have kept PROB30 group at this time. This
may be adjusted in the 06z update as confidence increases.
Severe storms are not expected and thunder itself will be
isolated, however a stronger storm is possible and could
produce small hail. Precipitation tapers off NW to SE Friday
morning. Winds remain under 12 kts tomorrow except in far
northwest Iowa, and will shift in direction to out of the
northwest across all sites by afternoon.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NC
AVIATION...Hagenhoff