708
FXUS63 KDMX 120847
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
347 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record to record warmth persists into Monday.

- Low chances for precipitation far south Monday night. Greater
  chances central and south late Tuesday/Tuesday night. A strong
  storm may occur.

- Greater chances for widespread precipitation Wednesday night
  and Thursday.

- Much cooler end of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The latest surface analysis shows the approach of a weak, mostly dry
cold front currently positioned over northwestern Iowa. Ahead of the
boundary, warm-sector temperatures are sitting in the upper-60s to
lower-70s. Behind the front, under cold air advection, temperatures
drop into the upper-50s to lower-60s. Within the warm sector, two
surface high-pressure centers exist: one centered over the Four
Corners region and the other over the Sand Mountains of northern
Alabama. Both features are aiding in keeping the area dry overnight.

Through the remainder of the overnight period and into the day
today, the cold front will continue diving through the forecast
area. Some saturation ahead of the boundary appears likely, but this
will primarily manifest as high level cloud cover. Large-scale
vertical motion remains weak, resulting in negligible PoPs for the
local forecast area, while stronger forcing and higher PoPs reside
closer to the surface low center in Minnesota. Outside of
precipitation chances, high temperatures ahead of the front will
remain above average, climbing into the mid-80s.

Behind Mondays front, surface high pressure builds back into the
region. However, as a shortwave trough breaks off the quasi-
stationary upper-level trough over the Rockies on Tuesday, chances
for showers and storms will increase as lee-side cyclogenesis takes
place. This setup positions the area on the cool, northern side of a
low-level theta-e gradient. Along this thermal and moisture
boundary, isolated to scattered chances (20-40%) of showers and
storms are expected. Post-frontal air will keep conditions cooler,
with high temperatures falling about 10 to 15 degrees below Mondays
values.

A weak, mostly dry cold front will move through the region on
Monday, bringing some cloud cover and warm highs in the mid-80s,
while stronger forcing and precipitation remain further north.
Cooler high pressure builds in behind the front for Tuesday,
dropping temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are possible Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The shallow surface boundary will stall somewhere across northern
Missouri on Tuesday and favor the more northern solutions for this
boundary location given the west/southwest flow aloft and how
shallow the feature is. Moisture will overrun this boundary and will
bring increasing chances for showers and storms to parts of central
and southern Iowa. MUCAPE values may approach 1000 J/kg over far
southern Iowa. This does look possible and should saturation occur
near 800-850 mb, lapse rate above this level are sufficient for
this MUCAPEs and could support marginally large hail. The
greater chance for showers and storms arrive Wednesday night
into Thursday as the main upper low lifts northeast into the
region. A strong system diving south out of Canada will quickly
push the precipitation out of the area. Much cooler temperatures
will follow with highs in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in
the 30s along with the potential for frost perhaps as early as
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

LLWS conditions are expected to persist for all TAF sites
through the night and end once daytime heating commences.
Southerly wind gusts of 15-20 kts will return this afternoon and
gradually veer to the southwest/west through the evening as a
cold front moves into the area. VFR conditions prevail through
the forecast period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vorst
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...Dodson/Morrow