601
FXUS63 KDMX 222041
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
241 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers continue this afternoon and evening, primarily
  across the southeast and east. Accumulations will be light and
  generally less than a 1/2 inch.

- Front moves through later tonight with some flurries possible.
  Winds may be gusty behind the front as wind chills reach the
  -15 to -20F range early Thursday morning.

- After a brief period of cold Thursday, temperatures moderate
  for the weekend, with a warm up expected for the start of next
  week. Little if any chances for precipitation exist during
  this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

On and off snow showers have continued this afternoon as an
associated mid level shortwave moves to the east. The base of this
wave is seen just starting to enter western Iowa per RAP analysis.
As the wave moves eastward, kinematic fields continue to signal
convergence overspreading across eastern portions of state. Forecast
soundings also clearly show saturation within the DGZ continuing
this afternoon and evening across this area. This will aid in
sustaining snow showers across portions of our southern and eastern
CWA this afternoon into the evening hours. Regarding snowfall
amounts, the majority of deterministic guidance shows generally less
than a 1/2 inch, but across the far southeast/east, there may be
locally higher amounts closer to an inch where QPF is higher. Short
term ensemble guidance is in good agreement with amounts
generally less than a half inch areawide, while some ensemble
members (<10% of members) show locally higher amounts of 1/2 to
1 inch possible across the far southeast and east. Highs today
will be in the low 30s, but across the far southeast may see
highs read slightly higher than NBM guidance as evidenced by
observations, so have tried to raise highs in that area to
account for this.

Snow showers should push off to the east tonight as the upper level
wave moves eastward. A frontal boundary emanating from a
surface low over the Great Lakes will push through later this
evening/overnight as the shortwave departs. Some flurries
associated with this frontal passage are possible with BUFKIT
soundings showing some saturation in the dendritic growth zone.
Any accumulations associated with the frontal passage should be
light. Winds may gust up to 25 kts behind the front, primarily
across the north as cold air begins to filter in behind the
front. This will result in wind chill values Thursday morning in
the -15 to -20F range. While not in criteria range, those who
plan to be outdoors tomorrow should dress warmly. Thursday will
see another upper level wave drop southward from the ND/SD area,
but with the lack of moisture evident, only expecting some mid
to high level cloudiness with this feature as highs reach the
mid to upper teens. This spell of cold is short lived, as by
Thursday evening warm air advection returns as a surface high
across SD/NE departs the area.

Friday into Saturday will see more of a zonal flow pattern set up
across the state despite an upper level shortwave moving across
Minnesota. This results in little appreciable PoPs across the area
for the weekend. A thermal ridge will begin building into the
Northern Plains by Sunday evening as a cut off low develops over the
Southwest US. The advancement of the ridge eastward will result in
warming temperatures and little to no chances for precipitation as
depicted by the latest NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions were observed at the start of this period across
most terminals, except for KMCW and KFOD where light snow has
been observed with MVFR ceilings. Expect a gradual
deterioration to MVFR ceilings areawide this afternoon and
evening with light snow possible. Have tried to time out the
arrival of the lowering ceilings and the snow mentions, but will
amend as needed. Winds will switch from the southwest to the
northwest this afternoon and evening as a front pushes through
the state. Some gustiness is possible after 00z across the far
north and areawide by 9z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo/Jimenez
AVIATION...Castillo/Jimenez