734
FXUS63 KDMX 142322
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
622 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers remain mainly north for the rest of today and into
  Wednesday, with additional showers Thursday also over northern
  Iowa. There is a low chance for storms with the midweek
  activity.

- Warmer weather returns in the latter half of the week, with
  highs Thursday and Friday in the mid-70s to lower 80s.

- A few showers and storms possible Friday afternoon to evening
  into Saturday. The severe weather potential is low at this
  time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Analysis of the large scale weather setup today shows a large area
of upper-level ridging that covers much of the central CONUS, with a
mid-level high pressure area circulating over the Southern Plains,
while two troughs are located on either side of this high pressure:
the first now over the Atlantic and the other just arriving onto the
California coast. Closer to the surface, high pressure is centered
over northern Minnesota/Wisconsin, covering much of the upper
Midwest into the Central Plains. Despite this high pressure, a
frontal boundary is draped across southern Iowa, with moisture
pooling into the state by increased theta-e advection that lead to
saturation to occur over northern into central Iowa, bringing rain
showers over the area. This afternoon, the showers are more isolated
in nature mainly over northern Iowa. Temperatures are quite varied
this afternoon with values in the 50s across the northern two-thirds
of the state, while southern Iowa has values through the 60s. Given
the slow movement of the boundary north through the day, on and off
showers are expected to continue through the remainder of the day
mainly over northern Iowa, while southern Iowa generally remains
dry, outside of a low chance for sprinkles if the drier air overhead
is able to saturate. Thunderstorms are not expected with this
activity given the lack of instability overhead. Temperatures
tonight into Wednesday are expected to fall into the upper 40s to
mid 50s north and in the upper 50s to low 60s south.

By Wednesday, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur per model
guidance, as the large-scale trough finally starts to eject out of
the western CONUS eastward, which will push a thermal ridge over the
Midwest, leading to warming overhead. This ridge will try to push
the aforementioned boundary out of the state, keeping near surface
weak convergence mainly over northern to north central Iowa, with
additional but more isolated chances (20-30%) for on and off showers
mainly over western and northern Iowa by the afternoon. Into
Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, the aforementioned low
pressure is expected to lift northeast into Nebraska and the
Dakotas, with Iowa in the warm sector and a push of moisture with
the initial advection wing arriving into Iowa. This will result in
more scattered shower activity mainly over northern late Wednesday
into Thursday, along with breezy conditions as low level
southwesterly flow increases. This stronger push of warmer air will
lead to above normal temperatures as values are expected to reach
the upper 70s to low 80s across the state Thursday, along with
higher dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. A return of instability
paired with favorable shear will bring the potential for some storms
with this activity, though not expecting any severe weather at this
time.

Additional rain chances will continue to end the work week Friday as
a cold front in relation to the lifting surface low into the Upper
Midwest moves into Iowa. Additional shower and storm chances return
once again, with the front tracking slowly eastward through the day,
though weaker forcing looks to keep any activity fairly light in a
rather broken line, before an increase in low-level jet activity
late Friday into Saturday will lead to some more widespread
development mainly over eastern Iowa. However, model variations
remain on the extent of coverage and timing so a close eye remains.
Instability increasing mainly over the southeast portion of the
state with more favorable shear would lead to some potential for
storms as well later in the day Friday, so will be keeping on eye on
this over the next few days.

Brief drying across the state looks to occur following the front`s
departure Saturday, though a quick moving shortwave dropping into
the Midwest within the circulating mid-level low pressure system
over Canada brings yet another opportunity for rain, before dry
conditions look to settle Sunday into early next week as
northwesterly flow becomes common. A return to more seasonal
conditions is expected this weekend with highs in the upper 60s
to low 70s Saturday, and a touch cooler Sunday in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Forecasts will vary from north to south over the next 24 hours.
In the south at OTM VFR with easterly winds through the period.
Moving north, around DSM will see a low VFR CIGS with easterly
winds shifting to southeast and a chance for some rain. Rain
chances currently not high enough for a PROB, but may need to be
added in later TAFs. Then the three more northern sites at ALO,
FOD, and MCW will see a more active period. Currently MVFR with
isolated rain showers moving through. These isolated showers
will see period of lower MVFR and maybe some high IFR. Little
prevailing rainfall as the coverages continues to look more
isolated to scattered.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...NC