Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
131
FNUS73 KDLH 291938
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for Sunken Lake 3...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
238 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on September 30.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Main problem of the day will be the gusty winds expected. A strong
low level jet will be overhead in the morning with speeds of near 60
mph just 2000ft AGL. An inversion in place should prohibit this from
mixing down but as we get to towards ignition time the inversion
break point could see strong gusts in excess of 30 mph initially.
These speeds are expected to come down a bit by noon as a cold
front passes and winds switch to out of the west. Winds are still
expected to be elevated through the afternoon with gusts in the
30s. On the backside of the cold front look for Min RHs to drop to
around 26%. With the dry conditions at play rain chances remain
less then 10%.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the west
late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 29 mph.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL increasing to 5100 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 25 to 29 mph shifting to the west 22 to
26 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (33400-40900 knot-ft) increasing to
excellent (82700-112000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC PC MC MC MC MC PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............62 66 70 72 74 75 74 72 70
RH..............67 58 49 44 38 32 28 27 26
20 FT wind dir..S S S SW SW W W W W
20 FT wind spd..9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.26 26 23 23 22 21 21 22 23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.8 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.8
Transp wind dir.S S S SW SW W W W W
Transp wind spd.28 28 29 28 25 22 23 25 26
Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100033 41 57 74 83 83 102 112 110
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL decreasing to 900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 18
mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (113900 knot-ft) decreasing to good
(49700 knot-ft) early in the evening, then
decreasing to fair (22900 knot-ft) early in the
evening increasing to excellent (74900 knot-ft)
late in the evening decreasing to poor to fair
(9300-24100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............65 55 52 49 47 44
RH..............33 47 54 58 60 62
20 ft wind......W 9 W 9 NW 9 W 7 W 5 W 5
20 ft wind gust.23 25 23 22 20 18
Mix hgt (ft)....4400 1000 1000 1000 900 800
Transport wind..W 30 NW 26 NW 26 NW 21 NW 17 NW 15
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/1000114 23 24 19 14 10
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in
the late morning and early afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL late in
the morning, then increasing to 6900 ft AGL
late in the morning decreasing to 4900 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (8500-26600 knot-ft) increasing to
good (48700 knot-ft) late in the morning, then
increasing to excellent (73600-108600 knot-ft)
late in the morning increasing to excellent
(110800-123300 knot-ft) late in the afternoon
decreasing to excellent (66800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............42 44 51 55 59 60
RH..............67 62 50 38 30 28
20 ft wind......W 4 W 5 W 6 W 5 W 5 W 5
20 ft wind gust.15 15 18 18 18 16
Mix hgt (ft)....700 1900 4300 6000 6900 6900
Transport wind..NW 15 NW 16 NW 20 NW 21 W 21 W 18
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10009 27 74 109 123 111
$$
Forecaster...Lee
Requested by...Mike Klick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2423232.0/DLH
.DELDT 09/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.mackey@usda.gov,joseph.kaufmann@usda.gov,michael.klick@usda.gov