678
FNUS73 KDLH 052003
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Wood Lake...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
303 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 CDT on October 05.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM CDT SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening as a cold front
passes through. Associated with this cold front is a 50% chance
for rain showers, which will be most likely around 5 PM through
about 8 PM. Couldn`t rule out a rumble of thunder or two (~15%
chance). Rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant, with
totals around a tenth of an inch or so. The clouds are expected to
clear out a bit temporarily, then more clouds move in later
tonight and there could be some very light rain showers again
through Sunday morning, then ending for the afternoon.

Southerly winds are expected to switch over to westerly after the
passage of the first cold front. Wind speeds are expected to
gradually increase overnight with gusts around 20 mph this evening
increasing to around 35 mph by Sunday morning. As the second front
passes through, expect winds to become northwesterly and speeds to
increase a bit more with gusts from 35 to 40 mph common through
the afternoon. Occasional gusts to 45 mph will be possible, and
the most likely timing for that will be Sunday morning before
speeds slowly decrease a bit going into Sunday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 10 mph with gusts to around
                    28 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 23 to 32 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (99200 knot-ft) decreasing to good
                    (39600-55100 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  CDY MC
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  40  50
LAL.............1   1   1
Temp............64  64  63
RH..............60  61  65
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.24  25  23
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 2.8 2.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW
Transp wind spd.32  23  20
Haines index....4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100099  55  40

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of rain
                    showers through the night.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1900, then 2 until 2000, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 37 mph
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 22 mph increasing to 25 to 31 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (6300-21300 knot-ft) increasing to
                    fair to good (26400-42500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  PC  PC  MCR CLR MCR PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC SCH                             SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....RW  RW                              RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  20  10  0   10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30
LAL.............1   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  60  56  54  53  52  52  51  48  48  45  44
RH..............67  75  77  71  66  63  61  61  68  68  72  76
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   8   9   10  12  13  15  16  17  17  18  18
20 FT wind gust.22  21  19  18  19  21  23  32  32  33  34  35
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.6 1.0
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  15  14  14  16  17  22  25  30  29  31  31
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100021  13  7   6   7   8   10  18  30  22  43  26

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning, then slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 40 mph.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL increasing to 4100 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....Northwest 28 to 36 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (33400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (93200-116300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     30     10     0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............42     42     43     44     46     46
RH..............81     88     82     70     59     53
20 ft wind......W 18   W 18   NW 18  NW 19  NW 18  NW 16
20 ft wind gust.35     37     39     37     35     31
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   2400   2900   3800   3800   4100
Transport wind..W 30   W 31   NW 33  NW 36  NW 33  NW 31
Haines index....2      2      2      2      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100033     66     81     116    110    110

$$
Forecaster...Josh
Requested by...Jeb Backe
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2422379.23/DLH
.DELDT 10/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeb.backe@usda.gov