Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
591
FNUS73 KDLH 191107
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for NWS Block I...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Duluth MN
607 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on September 19.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Active weather day with a few showers and storms possible this
morning. We do expect a bit of a lull in activity around mid day
before more severe weather ramps up in the afternoon and evening.
The site is currently located under a slight risk for severe storms
(2 out of 5). Most of the high res guidance is showing cell growth
after 4PM with a cold front set to usher everything east through the
evening hours. Main hazards will be large hail initially with a few
tornadoes possible. As the evening progresses damaging winds will
become the more likely severe threat.
Prior to the onset of storms winds will be breezy out of the south
with gusts up to 25 mph at times. Min RHs are also only expected
to dip down to around 57.
As far as rain totals go, it will be very feast or famine. Current
guidance has the area seeing a 56% chance of at least 0.25 inches
of rain over the next 24 hours. However, if a storm does manage
to go over the location some of the high res guidance has been
showing accumulations in excess of 1.50 inches.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers
through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph
early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the morning.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 3500 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 23 mph increasing to 24 to 25 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4400-19300 knot-ft) increasing to
fair to good (27600-44800 knot-ft) late in the
morning, then increasing to good to excellent
(48200-60800 knot-ft) early in the afternoon
increasing to excellent (70600-83300 knot-ft)
late in the afternoon decreasing to good
(46100-56100 knot-ft).
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Temp............67 67 69 71 73 75 78 78 80 81 81 79
RH..............67 69 67 66 64 63 59 60 59 57 60 64
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9
20 FT wind gust.14 15 18 19 20 21 21 20 21 21 20 19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.5 2.3
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.14 14 15 16 17 17 21 21 23 24 25 24
SDspl kt-ft/10005 5 7 14 19 28 45 54 61 72 83 56
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph late
in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the evening.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4300-14600 knot-ft).
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
Temp............78 73 70 67 67 67 66 65 65 64 63 62
RH..............68 79 86 93 90 92 90 93 95 93 95 95
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.16 15 16 18 18 18 16 15 15 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.20 14 15 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 13
SDspl kt-ft/100015 9 5 6 6 7 5 5 5 5 5 6
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 4800 ft AGL late in
the morning.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3900-18400 knot-ft) increasing to
fair to good (29600-44600 knot-ft) late in the
morning, then increasing to good to excellent
(54900-76000 knot-ft) late in the afternoon
decreasing to good (34300-40500 knot-ft) late
in the afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............61 60 62 64 67 69 71 74 75 76 76 75
RH..............97 96 90 86 77 72 65 58 56 53 53 55
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6
20 FT wind gust.13 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 15 14 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.8 4.4 3.1
Transp wind dir.SW W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.12 12 10 10 10 12 14 16 17 17 16 14
SDspl kt-ft/10004 4 6 11 18 30 45 60 72 76 65 41
$$
Forecaster...Lee
Requested by...Michael Mattmiller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422589.3/DLH
.DELDT 09/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.mattmiller@usda.gov