Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
131 FNUS73 KDLH 291938 FWSDLH Spot Forecast for Sunken Lake 3...USFS National Weather Service Duluth MN 238 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on September 30. If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653. .DISCUSSION... Main problem of the day will be the gusty winds expected. A strong low level jet will be overhead in the morning with speeds of near 60 mph just 2000ft AGL. An inversion in place should prohibit this from mixing down but as we get to towards ignition time the inversion break point could see strong gusts in excess of 30 mph initially. These speeds are expected to come down a bit by noon as a cold front passes and winds switch to out of the west. Winds are still expected to be elevated through the afternoon with gusts in the 30s. On the backside of the cold front look for Min RHs to drop to around 26%. With the dry conditions at play rain chances remain less then 10%. .MONDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 76. Min humidity........26 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the west late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 29 mph. Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL increasing to 5100 ft AGL in the afternoon. Transport winds.....South 25 to 29 mph shifting to the west 22 to 26 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Good (33400-40900 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (82700-112000 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC PC MC MC MC MC PC Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............62 66 70 72 74 75 74 72 70 RH..............67 58 49 44 38 32 28 27 26 20 FT wind dir..S S S SW SW W W W W 20 FT wind spd..9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 20 FT wind gust.26 26 23 23 22 21 21 22 23 Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.8 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.8 Transp wind dir.S S S SW SW W W W W Transp wind spd.28 28 29 28 25 22 23 25 26 Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/100033 41 57 74 83 83 102 112 110 .MONDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 42. Max humidity........67 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph. Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL decreasing to 900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 18 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (113900 knot-ft) decreasing to good (49700 knot-ft) early in the evening, then decreasing to fair (22900 knot-ft) early in the evening increasing to excellent (74900 knot-ft) late in the evening decreasing to poor to fair (9300-24100 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky cover.......MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............65 55 52 49 47 44 RH..............33 47 54 58 60 62 20 ft wind......W 9 W 9 NW 9 W 7 W 5 W 5 20 ft wind gust.23 25 23 22 20 18 Mix hgt (ft)....4400 1000 1000 1000 900 800 Transport wind..W 30 NW 26 NW 26 NW 21 NW 17 NW 15 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/1000114 23 24 19 14 10 .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 60. Min humidity........28 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the late morning and early afternoon. Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL late in the morning, then increasing to 6900 ft AGL late in the morning decreasing to 4900 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (8500-26600 knot-ft) increasing to good (48700 knot-ft) late in the morning, then increasing to excellent (73600-108600 knot-ft) late in the morning increasing to excellent (110800-123300 knot-ft) late in the afternoon decreasing to excellent (66800 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky cover.......CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............42 44 51 55 59 60 RH..............67 62 50 38 30 28 20 ft wind......W 4 W 5 W 6 W 5 W 5 W 5 20 ft wind gust.15 15 18 18 18 16 Mix hgt (ft)....700 1900 4300 6000 6900 6900 Transport wind..NW 15 NW 16 NW 20 NW 21 W 21 W 18 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/10009 27 74 109 123 111 $$ Forecaster...Lee Requested by...Mike Klick Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2423232.0/DLH .DELDT 09/29/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL michael.mackey@usda.gov,joseph.kaufmann@usda.gov,michael.klick@usda.gov