140
FXUS63 KDLH 081732
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1132 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers will move from the South Shore to
  northern highway 61 this afternoon and evening. Light
  accumulations expected

- A cold front moving through tomorrow will bring light snow in
  the afternoon and evening. Light snow accumulations of less
  than 2" are forecasted

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Current Conditions:

Surface ridging over the region this morning as a shortwave rotates
across the Arrowhead and western Lake Superior. This shortwave has
some moisture in the mid levels to work with and has generated a few
echoes on radar but an extensive dry low levels has prevented this
feature from yielding any snow at the surface. Moist low levels
can be found along the South Shore where some lake effect snow
showers continue. Satellite also shows some lower stratus
working across NW MN with some intermittent observations showing
snow, likely just a few flurries.

Today:

Surface ridging weakens as southerly flow ahead of an approaching
system takes hold of the region today. Isentropic forcing for ascent
may lead to a few flurries as the aforementioned stratus deck works
its way east through the day. Additionally, the introduction of the
southerly winds will lead to some enhanced areas of convergence for
snow bands to form over Lake Superior. The latest high res guidance
has been doing a decent job of picking up on this detail and
suggests that these bands will propagate from the South Shore
up north bringing some light snow to the northern portions of
highway 61 this afternoon and evening.

Tomorrow (Light Snow):

An upper level trough and cold front is set to pivot across the
Northland Thursday afternoon bringing some light snowfall. Prior to
the frontal passage the southerly flow will lead to temperatures
warming into the 20s. As far as the snow goes, amounts have slightly
come up from the previous package with a large swath of 50-60%
chance of 1" of snow across central and northern MN. The chances for
2" cap out around 30-40% in the Brainerd Lakes region. We may still
see some small adjustments in the upcoming forecast packages but
lack of a deep moisture source and the progressive nature of the
front will keep amounts well below advisory criteria.

Friday:

Snow associated with the cold front will exit early Friday morning
leaving northwesterly flow over the region once again. Cooler air
streaming in will promote some lake effect snow showers on the
South Shore. While profiles aloft look to be fairly dry the low
levels remain saturated and could still produce some flurries
as cyclonic flow aloft continues.

Weekend/Early Next Week:

Both the GFS and the Euro show agreement with bringing an upper
level low down through the Northern plain and into Iowa by Sunday
morning. This current track keeps the Northland on the edge of
impacts with our more southern counties potentially seeing some
light snowfall. The NBM has already begun to decrease the PoPs in
this timeframe but the LREF is still holding onto at least some
30% chances of at least a trace of snow. Overall, not the big
snow maker that many are wishing for.

As we head into early next week an upper level low churning over the
Hudson Bay will send a reinforcing shot of cold air back into the
Northland. Look for high temps to fall back into the single digits
for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

An MVFR stratus deck continues to dissipate this late morning
and will continue to do so this afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail for much of tonight. Early morning Thursday, a weak
clipper will move into the region, leading to light snowfall.
While no visibility and ceiling reductions are anticipated
initially, added a few PROB30s when snow could start heavier
than forecast.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

West to northwest winds across the Lake to start the day.
Southwesterly winds will become more dominant tonight. Speeds are
expected to remain less than 15 kts. Lake effect snow showers on the
South Shore are expected to migrate north this afternoon as the
winds switch, this will mainly effect the far northern portions of
the Near Shore waters.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Britt