203
FXUS63 KDLH 161738
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions today across most of
  central to northeast Minnesota.

- Widespread rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
  Thursday, Thursday night and possibly into Friday. Rainfall
  will be from a third to around an inch. The inch will be most
  likely from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

- Wintry mix may return to portions of the Northland Sunday
  night into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Today and Tonight:

High pressure will move east away from the Northland today with
winds southeast or becoming southeast. Mixing will deepen today
and with plenty of sunshine for most, humidity values for much
of the Northland will drop to or below 25% with some below 20%.
The mixing will tap into stronger winds aloft for gusts of 15 to
20 mph over central to northern Minnesota this afternoon. Near-
critical fire weather conditions are expected, especially for
central to northeast Minnesota away from Lake Superior. Highs
this afternoon will reach into the fifties except around Lake
Superior where off lake winds will keep them in the upper
thirties to mid- forties.

An area of low pressure and upper trough will move toward the
region tonight and may cause some showers in far northern
Minnesota overnight.

Thursday through Friday:

As the low moves into the region Thursday, chances for showers
will expand both in coverage and intensity through the day into
Thursday night, peaking from 80-90% for most. Widespread
showers along with some thunderstorms will occur. The highest
threat for thunderstorms will be over east-central Minnesota
into northwest Wisconsin where it will be 20-30%. A few of the
storms could produce small hail, mainly late Thursday afternoon
and evening. Showers will stick around Friday but chances will
be lower, 20-50%, highest over northwest Wisconsin. Colder air
moving in Friday night may cause some light snow to mix with the
rain or become dominant Thursday evening before the
precipitation ends. Little snowfall is expected. Total rainfall
ranges from around a third of an inch to around an inch. The
highest amounts are most likely from east-central Minnesota into
far northwest Wisconsin.

Saturday into Monday:

Confidence in the details of the forecast are lower than normal
for this period. Consensus is for high pressure to cause dry
conditions Saturday with highs from forty to fifty degrees.

The deterministic GFS/ECMWF/Canadian diverge for Sunday with
significant differences. The GFS is an outlier compared to the
ECMWF/Canadian and when looking at cluster analysis for
Sunday/Monday, the pattern favors a solution closer to the
ECMWF/Canadian. The ECMWF/Canadian have a strong surface low
in the Central Plains Sunday where the GFS does not. The GFS
has upper ridging where the other models forecast a negatively
titled upper trough. The ensemble members support their
deterministic runs. The ECMWF still has quite a bit of spread
though on the surface low track, with the deterministic run
moving the low from Iowa Sunday evening northeast through
Wisconsin to eastern Lake Superior by 18Z Monday. The ensemble
members show a track from anywhere from through eastern
Minnesota to the eastern Great Lakes. There may be enough cold
air present, depending on track, for a wintry mix and possibly
some snow accumulation. The take away here is that there is a
chance for yet another spring storm to impact portions of the
Northland late weekend into early next week with a wintry mix
possible for portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Southeast winds remain 5 to 15 knots through tonight, locally
stronger along Lake Superior shorelines. A low level jet moves
overhead after 06Z to create some wind shear concerns at most
terminals through 14Z. An approaching weather system first
brings rain showers to the Minnesota Borderlands after 12Z and
then a deeper low pressure lifts northeastward 15-21Z to bring
incoming rain and isolated thunderstorm chances to end this TAF
period. Expect even greater coverage and likely deteriorating
conditions after this current TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

As high pressure departs today, winds will be or become
easterly, more southeast from Grand Portage to Grand Marais.
Strong winds, from 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 knots,
will develop from Silver Bay to the Twin Ports to Sand Island
and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued there from this
afternoon into the evening.

The wind will decrease tonight but remain easterly into Thursday
evening, generally from 10 to 20 knots. Winds will back to
northerly Thursday night into Friday and remain from 10 to 20
knots for most.

There may be a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Melde