127
FXUS63 KDLH 241441
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
941 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures and showers will linger through tonight.

- Frost Advisory across northern MN for Monday morning.

- A warming trend is expected next week with low chances for
  precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

With more extensive low level cloud cover spreading south from
Canada across much of northeast Minnesota and eventually into
northwest Wisconsin, decreased high temperatures for today into
the upper 50s for the Arrowhead of Minnesota, coastal Lake
Superior areas and across much of northwest Wisconsin downstream
of Lake Superior. Radar trends also show a bit greater rain
shower coverage with the cold pocket and cyclonic flow aloft.
Thus, raised rain shower chances and coverage for the rest of
the morning and afternoon as well until drier air arrives
later this afternoon and this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Current Conditions/Today:

A mostly cloud day across the Northland as a vertically stacked low
churns over the southern portions of the Hudson Bay. This feature is
still able to pivot some deep moisture profiles over the region with
saturation through the low and mid levels. Cold air advection and
cyclonic flow aloft mixing with this saturation will lead to another
day of scattered showers and sprinkles. Steep low level lapse rates
will also help to produce gusty winds at the surface as low level
winds are expected to be near 25 mph. Region wide temperatures will
be a tad cooler then yesterday with highs in the upper 50s and low
60s.

Monday - Tuesday:

A large surface high pressure slowly grows across the Northern
Plains and into the Midwest to start the work week. Aloft we will
still see northwest cyclonic flow but drier air aloft will limit the
ability for the atmosphere to produce rain showers. High pressure
will also supply a healthy amount of subsidence over the region
further clearing skies. Radiational cooling will lead to some chilly
morning temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday. We have gone ahead
and put a Frost Advisory out for northern MN for Monday morning.
Another may be needed for Tuesday morning.

Wednesday - End of the Week:

High pressure saunters off to the southeast on Wednesday with a cold
front dropping in from the north. Moisture profiles across the
Arrowhead and into NW WI would suggest a chance of some
precipitation with this fronts passage. For now, we will carry a 20-
30% chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. Thunder
potential looks to be very low as instability will be hard to come
by with the cooler temperatures in place.

Prior to the fronts passage, southerly flow from the departing high
wil lead to more seasonable temperatures back in the mid and upper
70s. Even after the passage of the front, most of the region quickly
recovers back to seasonal temps to round out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Widespread MVFR ceilings today with scattered showers and
sprinkles. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest. Ceilings
will gradually improve NW to SE through the late afternoon and
evening hours. VFR conditions expected to return across the
whole Northland tonight as high pressure moves in from the
Northern Plains.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Gusty northwest flow continues today with small craft advisories in
effect for all the near shore waters. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts
are expected. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet for the North Shore,
and 3 to 5 feet for the South Shore and Apostle Islands today.
Waves will slowly decrease this evening and tonight. Scattered
showers through the day will also be expected. Precipitation
chances taper off in the evening. Northwesterly winds are
expected to persist but will weaken this evening as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for MNZ010>012.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...PA