Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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805 FXUS63 KDLH 300552 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very dry conditions on Monday in combination with gusty winds associated with the cold front may cause critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect. - A predominantly dry cold front moves through the region late Monday bringing gusty winds for Monday into Tuesday. - Temperatures trend around normal for the remainder of the coming week behind Monday`s cold front, with continued dry conditions and nightly frost chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 456 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 We have gotten warmer and drier once again today, with temperatures getting close to the 75th percentile of the NBM, mainly for inland areas of the Northland. Dewpoints are close to the 10th percentile, putting minimum RH values into the 20 to 30 percent range for a large portion of the area. Winds have been on the lower side, preventing conditions from getting out of control on the fire weather side of things today. After coordination with partners, have issued an SPS for these extremely dry conditions for the rest of today. We have been monitoring a mostly dry cold front that will move through the region Monday afternoon and evening. Ahead of that front we can expect the warm and dry trend to continue, and have gone with the 75th percentile for high temperatures, and the 10th percentile for dewpoints, producing high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, and minimum RH values of 20 to 40 percent. The conditions of most concern will be around the Brainerd Lakes, where the winds will be strongest and the RH values will be lowest, and have decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for Monday from late morning through the early evening for Cass, Crow Wing and Aitkin counties. With these excessively dry conditions in the low levels, precipitation looks rather iffy, but have maintained some small pops under 25 percent right behind the front as it moves across the area Monday afternoon and evening. QPF values with it will barely wet the pavement. The windy conditions right behind the front Monday night will approach 30 mph during the evening hours, only gradually diminishing overnight into Tuesday. The cold front on Monday will usher in some cooler conditions, with northwest to west flow aloft and ridging building into the area at the surface for Tuesday into Tuesday night. This ridge of high pressure appears to slide through the area faster than previously though, so the potential for frost/freeze has lowered for Wednesday morning as compared to previous forecasts. High temperatures will be coolest on Tuesday, only riding into the upper 50s to mid 60s. It may seem a bit of a shock, but these temperatures will be near normal for October 1st. Warmth returns for Wednesday, with a brief shot of warm air advection before another cold front slides through. This front also appears largely dry, but we will get back into cooler temperatures behind it for the latter half of the week with highs closer to normal. Next weekend spread in the models really increases as some are trying to bring some precipitation chances and cooler temperatures to the area, but others are maintaining our mostly zonal flow with warm, dry conditions. Do not have a lot of optimism in getting the cooler and more moist scenario, but the potential is out there. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Areas of fog are expected overnight, though the lowest visibilities will be found away from the terminals. VLIFR visibility and ceilings will spread inland from Lake Superior overnight and will affect K4R5, KASX, K3CU, KDYT, KSUW, KOLG, and KCOQ. MVFR to IFR visibility is possible at HYR and DLH. The latest HREF guidance suggests a 10-30% chance of IFR visibility at DLH. HYR saw temporary IFR visibility in the past few hours. Think temporary visibility reductions are likely there. Low-level wind shear is a concern at the Minnesota terminals tonight and Monday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. The core of strongest winds will pass over INL where 2kft winds of 60 knots are possible. The wind shear threat will decrease as surface wind speeds rise with mixing after sunrise. Cold front will propagate eastward across the Northland today and tonight. Winds will turn westerly and eventually northwesterly behind the boundary and will remain gusty into Monday evening. A few sprinkles or light showers are not out of the question near the international border. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Northeast winds will gradually decrease overnight with winds becoming southerly along much of the South Shore. Winds will become southerly for all areas on Monday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west, but remaining at or less than 15 knots with a few higher gusts. The cold front will move across the lake Monday evening, causing winds to become northwest and increase, gusting 25 to 30 knots overnight and Tuesday before diminishing Tuesday night. Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday evening. Another period of strong southwest winds is expected on Wednesday, when we may need another round of Advisories and perhaps Gale Warnings. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this evening for MNZ025-033>036. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Melde