755
FXUS63 KDLH 162356
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
656 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers continue tonight and Saturday with minimal
  accumulations.

- Turning much cooler this weekend with highs in the 40s and
  50s.

- Frost and a potential freeze possible Sunday night into
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Vertically stacked low pressure was located over western
Minnesota this afternoon. Areas of light showers were rotating
around the low across the Northland. The low will slowly meander
across eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin overnight,
ending up across Upper Michigan by Saturday morning. With a
northwest flow regime on the backside of the low, light showers
will persist Saturday into Saturday night as the low continues
to move further east. Cooler air will also arrive with the
northwest flow bringing highs in the 40s and 50s for Saturday
and Sunday. This will be around 10 to 20 degrees below normal
for mid-May. High pressure builds in on Sunday with east to
northeasterly winds across the region. The coolest highs Sunday
will be near Lake Superior as a result. Global models keep some
shower activity over the region Sunday, but this is hard to
believe given the building high and drier air pushing in.

Overnight lows Saturday night and Sunday night will fall into
the 30s with some upper 20s possible Sunday night as well. This
will lead to widespread areas of frost across the Northland each
night with a freeze possible Sunday night across parts of
northeastern Minnesota.

Much of next week looks dry with upper ridging in place. A
system will move across the Central Plains into Mid-Mississippi
Valley Monday into Tuesday, but the high pressure in place
overhead looks to keep the effects of this system to our south.
There may be some shower activity late week into the weekend in
spots, but global models are telling different stories keeping
overall confidence low. Temperatures will slowly warm back into
the 60s over the course of the week, but persistent easterly
flow off the lake will keep temperatures cooler near the lake.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings currently occurring across the
area will deteriorate to MVFR to IFR ceilings with VFR to MVFR
visibilities in scattered light rain this evening into Saturday
morning before conditions improve back to MVFR late in the TAF
period Saturday afternoon as the low pressure system shifts
east. Can`t rule out some LIFR conditions tonight, but
probabilities of this occurring are 10-20%. Winds should ease
and become variable this evening into early tonight before
turning northwesterly into Saturday with gusts picking up to
20-25 knots.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

No marine concerns are expected over the next 48 hours. Light
showers will persist for tonight into Saturday night. Winds
tonight into tomorrow will be northwesterly at 5 to 15 knots
before becoming easterly Saturday night and Sunday. Winds of 5
to 15 knots will be seen on Sunday with gusts to 20 knots at the
head of the lake. A period of stronger easterly winds is
expected for next week starting on Monday which may lead to
conditions hazardous to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...BJH