940
FXUS63 KDLH 052346
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
646 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms arrive as early as this evening, though strong storms
  are not expected until Wednesday afternoon. On and off storm
  chances continue into the weekend.

- Temperatures will continue to increase throughout the latter
  half of the week. Heat Advisories may be needed.

- Temperatures and dewpoints decrease at the end of the weekend,
  and chances for showers and storms continue, especially in the
  Borderlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Increased winds out of the northeast today lead to waves nearing
3 ft at the Minnesota Park Point and Wisconsin Point beaches,
which leads to a high risk for rip currents causing hazardous
swimming conditions. These conditions will fade as we head into
the evening.

A line of storms are currently making their way east towards the
Northland, maintaining itself in an area of high instability
(2000 J/kg) and sufficient shear (~35kts) out in North Dakota.
As it reaches the Northland, it will be moving into an
environment that is not able to maintain the storms. These
should weaken by time it reaches north central Minnesota, but
rain showers may persist into the Brainerd Lakes area later
tonight. CAMs show that a second round of storms will be
initiated with a weak shortwave moving through the area, though
the environment is not conducive for supporting strong storms.
If anything, this round will probably just be showers with
embedded thunderstorms.

Another stronger shortwave will move into the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. This upper level forcing lines up better
with the area of good instability and wind shear slowly moving
east throughout the Borderlands. This area is most likely to see
a few strong to severe storms. Despite heading into the
overnight, a surge of warm air will be advected northward with a
ridge moving in behind the shortwave. Some scattered convection
will be possible Thursday night, but weak upper level forcing
makes strong storms unlikely during this period though general
thunderstorms may continue into the night. A caveat with this
environment is a cap is expected to remain in place due to
continuing WAA aloft creating a low to mid level inversion,
which will inhibit convection initiation.

Thursday will be a hot, humid day. The ridge will settle over
the Upper Midwest with very little forcing aloft. Therefore,
convection will be possible, but unlikely. Heat will linger into
Friday on the back side of the ridge, and heat indices in the
90s across the Northland will likely lead to widespread heat
advisories.

Behind the ridge, a much larger upper level trough will come
through to not only push out the heat, but lead to more strong
to severe storms with a cold front Friday night into Saturday
for the Northern Plains. Strong to severe storms will be
possible with this system as long as the cold front can line up
with the best shear primarily behind the front and instability
mainly ahead of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Primarily VFR conditions with patchy smoke and some occasional
showers in north-central Minnesota for most of the evening. A
decaying area of showers is approaching KBRD, so threw in some
VCSH there. Otherwise, attention turns to tonight as a cluster
of storms in southeastern North Dakota moves east/southeast. The
environment for strong to severe storms is better to the west of
the Northland, so expectations are for these storms to weaken
with eastward extent tonight, though shower coverage (and
embedded thunderstorm coverage) should be more scattered to
widespread tonight and Wednesday morning. The highest coverage
should be at KBRD. Expect MVFR to brief IFR conditions in
moderate to locally heavier rain showers. Wednesday afternoon
shower and isolated, embedded thunderstorm activity remains
possible mainly in the Minnesota Arrowhead with a warm
front/warm advection ongoing, but KINL/KHIB could see some
additional thunderstorms develop Wednesday evening as well after
the end of the current TAF period.

Winds become breezy out of the south tomorrow, with gusts of
18-25 kt, strongest in the late morning and afternoon on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 537 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Added in a short-fuse Small Craft Advisory from Two Harbors to
the Twin Ports to Port Wing through 9 PM CDT due to northeast
winds being funneled into the Twin Ports with gusts to 25 knots
and wave heights of 3-4 feet. Winds and waves should diminish
later this evening.

Previous Discussion:

Elevated winds will return Wednesday, but will shift out of the
east, so waves in the Twin Ports will likely not be as high as
they were today. Wind gusts as high as 20 kts will be possible.
Scattered chances for some storms will be along the North Shore
Wednesday morning, but are more likely in the evening. Scattered
chances for storms continue into Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-
     145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein