867
FXUS63 KDLH 102129
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
329 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quick shot of light snowfall tonight with any accumulations
  under a half inch.

- Temperatures warm above normal for the remainder of the week
  with dry conditions.

- A system will impact the region this weekend with mainly rain
  as temperatures remain warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

High pressure extended from the Southern Plains to the Upper
Midwest and northwestern Ontario this afternoon. Low stratus was
continuing to plague the Northland, but satellite showed that it
was becoming thinner and even scattering out in spots. Light
radar returns were seen across north-central Minnesota, but with
dry air near the surface, most of this activity was not reaching
the ground. As the ridge axis aloft shifts eastward this
evening, a trough will move from the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest overnight. Light snow showers associated with an
eastward moving warm front are expected starting this evening
and pushing east of the region by sunrise Tuesday morning. These
showers will likely be organized in a north to south band along
an area of frotogenesis. This system looks pretty moisture
starved, with QPF values a couple hundredths of an inch at best.
Any snow accumulations overnight will likely be under a half
inch. Cook County will be the area most likely to see near a
half inch with a tenth or two elsewhere across the Northland.

Most of Tuesday looks dry but with northwest flow aloft on the
backside of the system tonight, light rain and snow showers will
be possible across the Arrowhead into Ashland, Iron and northern
Price counties Tuesday night. High pressure will then dominate
the region for Wednesday through Friday with dry conditions in
place. Temperatures will also warm each day reaching the 40s by
Thursday with 40s and 50s for Friday and Saturday, which will be
about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for mid-November.

Our next chance for precipitation arrives this weekend as a
trough works through the central CONUS. While models agree there
will be a system working across the Northern Tier during the
weekend, timing and location are still in question with activity
possibly starting Saturday morning or even as late as Saturday
night/Sunday morning. Given that temperatures Saturday will
still be above normal, rain will be the most likely p-type, but
some mix can not be ruled out if precipitation falls during the
overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

MVFR stratus remains over much of the Northland with a few
pockets of IFR ceilings. Some improvement in the ceilings is
expected through the afternoon ahead of a front that will move
through later this evening. Light flurries and freezing drizzle
will remain possible under these low ceilings. Light snow
showers will accompany the front this evening with a brief
period of MVFR visibilities as they move through. Winds turn
southerly behind the front and will become gusty with gusts to
around 15 knots that will diminish for a bit after sunrise as
winds turn northwesterly and then increase again by midday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Winds will become southwesterly tonight and increase during the
early morning to 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 27 knots that
will continue through the day and become more westerly to
northwesterly by late afternoon. The highest wind gusts will be
over the open waters and along the North Shore from Silver Bay
to Grand Portage and the Outer Apostle Islands. These winds will
also generate waves of 2 to 5 feet in these areas as well. Small
Craft Advisories have been issued for these threats.
Northwesterly winds will then increase for Tuesday night into
Wednesday with gusts to 20 to 30 knots expected. There remains a
20-40% chance for gales along the North Shore north of Two
Harbors and the Outer Apostle Islands during the day Wednesday.
Additional advisories will be needed for this second round of
strong winds. Winds will slowly diminish Wednesday night with
northwesterly winds of 5 to 15 knots expected for Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CST Tuesday for
     LSZ140>142.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to midnight CST
     Wednesday night for LSZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH