684
FXUS63 KDLH 060258
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
958 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A secondary cold front will bring strong westerly winds
  overnight tonight and through Sunday. Wind Advisories have
  been issued for portions of northern MN.

- Slightly above normal temperatures to start next week with additional
  frost and freeze headlines likely in the mornings.

- Warming trend by mid and late week with highs climbing well
  above normal. Highs are currently projected to be back into
  the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Current Conditions/Today:

A cold front is marching in from the west this afternoon. Out ahead
of this boundary we have rampant warm air advection leading to highs
climbing into the 60s in MN and 70s for WI. Gusty winds of 30 mph
have also helped with the moisture advection with dewpoints sitting
in the 50s over NW WI. The latest SPC outlook has a very small
Slight Risk (2 out of 5) along our eastern border. Given we have
strong mid level lapse rates of near 8C/km some upscale thunderstorm
growth remains possible. Instability parameters for this evening are
hovering around 500-700 J/kg. Bulk shear we have in spades with
speeds of almost 70 kts. Given the listed ingredients the primary
concern would be hail around quarter size and a few damaging wind
gusts. With how progressive the boundary is expected to be the
window for strong to severe storms is rather short (7PM-10PM).

Tonight/Tomorrow - Windy:

The aforementioned cold front moves out of our area this evening
leaving with a cool air mass spilling over the region. A weak
inversion at the surface might not be strong enough to keep the
enhanced westerly wind speeds at bay leading to a windy night. A
secondary front is set to move out of the Canadian Prairies
overnight with 12hr temperature advection estimates of -40C.
Sounding profiles showcase 50 kts in the lower levels further
raising concerns for strong winds mixing down to the surface. The
EFI for wind gusts is over 0.90 across northern MN with a shift of
tales of 1. Trends have shown a steady increase in wind potential.
With all this in mind we have decided to issue a Wind Advisory for
the overnight period from Brainerd Lakes Region up towards the
International Border. An additional Wind Advisory was also
issued for the Arrowhead as westerly winds linger. Wind speeds
do come down a bit during the day Sunday but we will still
maintain gusts up to 30 mph. The temperature change from the
previous day may also be a bit jarring with highs capping out in
50s. Cyclonic flow aloft with a lobe of vorticity parked over
the Northland could generate some light rain over the Arrowhead
in the afternoon. The South Shore could also see some Lake
Effect Showers as the cool (-4C @850mb) NW flow streams over the
warm (16C) Lake Superior. Fairly low impact from a
precipitation stand point, not enough to alleviate our drought
status.

Next Week:

We settle into a quiet weather pattern for the work week.
Surface high pressure will be lingering over the Midwest for the
early portions of the week with upper level ridging building to
the west. Temperatures will be just a touch above normal
hovering around 60s. Overnight lows will also lead to additional
Frost/Freeze headlines through the next several nights. High
pressure slides east by mid week as a low begins to develop over
the Northern Plains. Thermal ridging pushes into the region
with high temps returning to well above normal to round out the
week. Highs Thursday into Friday are set to ascend into the
upper 70s! Precipitation chances are missing through the week
but may return next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A cold front entering northwest Wisconsin at this moment is
creating a few different lines of low-capped thunderstorms over
northwest Wisconsin. These conditions are expected through 03Z
this evening as the cold front finally exits into north-central
Wisconsin and the U.P. A few terminals could experience very
brief heavy downpour creating MVFR visibility and lightning
strikes. The primary hazard from a stronger isolated
thunderstorm would be wind gusts to 45 knots. A reinforcing
secondary cold front drops southward tonight and brings with it
another increase in winds, but from the west-northwest. These
winds 15-25 knots gusting 30 to 40 knots are primarily expected
in north-central Minnesota and across the Arrowhead later
tonight and lasting into Sunday afternoon. The strongest winds
decrease last in the Arrowhead late in the TAF period. Behind
the secondary front, a shield of MVFR stratus sets up at most
locations in northeast MN and across NW WI after 06Z and lasting
through 18Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Westerly gales will develop over the rest of the western Lake
tonight and linger through Sunday evening with Gale Warnings
going into effect shortly tonight. Additional Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed after the Gale Warning expires.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ010-011-018-025-
     026-033-034.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ012-020-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-141>148-
     150.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-141>148-
     150.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy