506
FXUS63 KDLH 031143
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
543 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds with falling temperatures today.

- Lows tonight will drop into the single digits and low teens
  below zero with wind chills as cold as -20 to -25.

- Temperatures warm to end the week before another chance for
  light snow followed by more cold air arrive this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low pressure was analyzed over western Lake Superior early this
morning with a cold front extending back into far northwestern
Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and southern South Dakota. The
heaviest snow showers associated with the cold front were mainly
south and east of the Northland with only light flurries
remaining. Winds were picking up from the northwest as colder
air was starting to pour into the area. Highs have already
likely occurred for many areas this morning with temperatures
slowly falling or heading nearly steady for the remainder of the
day. An uptick of a few degrees is possible, but with the winds,
it won`t be noticeable. Some lake effect snowfall may linger
into this evening across Iron County and perhaps off Rainy Lake
and Kabetogama Lake. Additional accumulations of an inch or two
will be possible. However, it is unknown how much ice has formed
on Rainy and Kabetogama lakes. SARRIS data from NOHRSC shows
mainly open water on both lakes, but also shows Red Lake iced
over. If there is more ice than the SARRIS data shows, snowfall
accumulations over northern St. Louis County will trend a bit
lower. Dry air will also be working in near the surface, so that
could further hamper lake-effect snow chances as well.

Lows tonight will fall into the single digits and low teens
below zero. Temperatures have trended slightly warmer for
tonight, which is also favored by the bias corrected guidance.
Cloud cover looks to be a bit less than previously forecast, so
better radiational cooling conditions may allow lows to fall a
few degrees cooler. Winds will be light, which will limit wind
chills, but they will also be turning southwesterly as warm air
advection arrives heading towards daybreak. This may also limit
cooling right when the coldest temperatures of the night
traditionally occur. All that said, apparent temperatures will
fall to as cold as -20 to -25F below zero. This is above cold
headline criteria across our northeastern Minnesota zones, but
there are a few pockets of -25F in our northwestern Wisconsin
zones which is right at criteria. Given the limited coverage of
-25F apparent temperatures, will hold off on any headlines at
 this point.

Southerly flow Thursday will bring warming temperatures to the
region ahead of our next clipper that will move through during
the Thursday night into Friday time frame. Light snow showers
will be possible during this time, but any accumulations will be
minor. Highs Thursday will be in the teens with 20s for Friday.
A second cold front will follow for Friday night into Saturday
morning with another chance for light snow showers, but will be
followed by another shot of cold air. This will push highs back
into the high single digits and teens for the weekend with lows
falling into the single digits above and below zero. A northwest
flow regime will remain in place heading into the new week with
periodic clippers moving through with light snow chances.
Temperatures do look to warm into the 20s for highs by Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

MVFR conditions prevail across the Northland this morning with a
few pockets of VFR conditions. MVFR ceilings will likely stick
around through much of the day with improvement to VFR later
this afternoon and into this evening. Light snow showers will
remain possible this morning and may briefly drop VSBYs to MVFR,
but confidence on location is low. Some blowing snow has also
been reported, but is not having too much of an impact on VSBYs.
Northwesterly winds will gust to 20 to 25 knots through this
afternoon before diminishing around sunset.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 234 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Northwesterly winds will gust to 25 to 30 knots today into
tonight across all of western Lake Superior. This will lead to
waves of 5 to 7 feet across the Outer Apostle Islands. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds will slowly diminish late
tonight into Thursday morning before backing southwesterly and
increasing ahead of our next clipper. Winds will gust to 25 to
35 knots with gales to 40 knots possible along parts of the
North Shore and Outer Apostle Islands were a Gale Watch has been
issued. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect elsewhere. A
cold front will move through late Thursday night into Friday
morning with winds turning northwesterly in its wake. Speeds
will then decrease Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-145>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for LSZ140>144-
     150.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for LSZ140>144-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH