317
FXUS63 KDLH 071739
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1139 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Arctic air remains in play for today. Mostly sunny skies but highs
  will remain in the single digits and low teens.

- Active weather this week with multiple systems passing
  through the region. The Tuesday into Wednesday system
  currently looks to be the most impactful with the potential
  for heavy snowfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Current Conditions/Today:

An arctic air mass has moved into the Upper Midwest and continues to
flex its influence over the region this morning with temperatures as
low as -15F in northern MN. Cold air will continuously pour
over the region with highs today struggling to get out of the
teens. With the cold air seeping over the region combined with
northwest flow we can still expect some snow showers downstream
of the bigger inland lakes, particularly up along the
International Border. And of course, we can`t forget about the
South Shore. Snow will largely be focused over Iron and Ashland
counties where they may pick up another inch or two of snow.
Dry air in the low levels will look to shut off the lake effect
snow showers this afternoon

Active Pattern This Week:

Round One:

Monday the arctic air mass begins to exit to the east with southerly
flow returning to the region. There is a weak signal in the QPF
field for some light snow to traverse the area Monday morning. While
there may be some surface convergence to aide in lift, the latest
deterministic guidance has the inactive portion of the shortwave
overhead and may counteract the snow chances. As such, we have
backed off the PoPs for the morning timeframe. Better synoptic
forcing still looks to arrive in the afternoon as our first clipper
crashes in from the NW. Confidence still remain high for this system
to breach our borders after 9PM as both the Euro and GEFS remain in
high agreement with their low tracks. This system will sport some
increased QPF paired with a small area of increased lift leading to
some higher snowfall rates. Most of this snow looks to fall in the
overnight period with the Arrowhead and Borderlands likely seeing
the bulk of the accumulation. The latest trends for snowfall amounts
look to have been oscillating over the last 24 hours with the
current run about where is was yesterday, advertising a quick couple
of inches before this system exits Tuesday morning. At the moment it
doesn`t look like this system will warrant any headlines. However,
as we are getting into the window when CAMs are coming into
play. There is an emerging signal for a lake effect snowband to
develop in the morning hours over Lake Superior. Most of the
guidance keeps this offshore with some having it skirt by the
North Shore. If this feature decides to park over the North
Shore and then we get the additional snow from the clipper, then
an advisory may be needed.

Round Two:

The more impressive system will be the second one slotted to come
through Tuesday. While this is another system out of Alberta this
low is projected to be slightly stronger. While the GEFS ensembles
have weakened slightly since yesterday the low still has a return
interval of 1 day in every 10 years which is pretty decent for a
clipper system. This one also looks to carry more Pacific moisture
with it. An impressive atmospheric river is expected to impact the
Pacific NW on Monday and this system looks to siphon some of that
moisture and deposit into the Northland. PWATs are projected to
increase 0.50" The 00Z suite of deterministic guidance boasts some
impressive forcing mechanics in play for this system with a strong
signal in both QG vectors and differential vorticity. These synoptic
features joined with some enhanced FGEN bands may lead to some very
heavy snowfall rates. Based on the current track and timing these
heavier rates would spread in from the west in the afternoon and
push east through the evening hours. Ensembles are slowly locking in
the track with good agreement from both the GEFS and Euro with the
cluster of low tracks going through central MN. With this current
track there will likely be a sharp gradient across our north where
snow totals quickly taper off. Overall, the probabilities for
widespread impactful snow have not changed too much from the
previous forecast package. Still showing a 40-60% chance of greater
than 4" for a large swath of our region excluding the Borderlands.

Round 3?

The main system of the week (round 2) should exit Wednesday
afternoon with lingering lake effect snow showers for the South
Shore. Possibly hot on its heels may be round 3. Still a great deal
of uncertainty with this clipper system and it may dive far enough
south that we won`t see too much of an impact. For now, the latest
deterministic guidance doesn`t show this clipper packing as much of
a punch as Tuesday`s system. And given the spread in solutions at
this time we are only carrying a 20-30% chance for snow at the
moment. As the clipper activity wanes into the weekend a return of
arctic air is expected. Highs will once again struggle to get out of
the teens with overnight lows below zero.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR conditions expected for this afternoon with clear skies.
After sunset, there is some signal in short-range models that
some fog could develop, especially so at HYR. Some MVFR
visibilities will be likely, and while IFR is not currently
expected, it can`t be completely ruled out briefly (~10%
chance). Expect increasing cloud coverage and lowering ceilings
later tonight as a clipper system passes by to the south. A
little light snow could graze BRD late tonight. Not currently
expecting visibility reductions, but a brief MVFR visibility
reduction due to snow can`t be completely ruled out. During
Monday morning, expect ceilings to lower to MVFR.


&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 313 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Northwest winds today continue with the windiest conditions expected
this morning. Small Craft Advisories will fully drop off after 6AM.
Quiet conditions for the rest of today before the weather becomes
very active for the work week. Multiple clipper systems are set to
impact the region with the Tuesday into Wednesday system looking to
be a prolific snow producer. Gusty conditions will once again return
on Monday and we may see some Gales associated with the stronger
system for Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Britt