


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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387 FXUS63 KDLH 091132 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 632 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure builds in today with quiet weather. - Slight chances for showers and storms early Thursday, but best chances are late Thursday/Friday. Best chances for severe weather will also be late Thursday/Friday. - Showers and storms may linger into the weekend, though models differ. More chances for showers and storms early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Fog and low stratus off Lake Superior is creating dense fog along portions of the South Shore. As the sun rises and the surface starts to mix out, the fog should slowly dissipate throughout the morning. Once the fog clears, high pressure currently over the region will lead to a quiet weather day. However, skies may be milky in the morning due to wildfire smoke aloft. A ridge will move across the Northern Plains tonight into Thursday, and the WAA combined with small shortwaves along the ridge may lead to scattered thunderstorms across north central Minnesota, but CAMs are still in disagreement of whether storms will initiate this far north due to capping in the mid levels. Better chances for storms will be Thursday afternoon and evening as the cap erodes from surface diurnal heating. CAMs differ on when the cap erodes, however, so timing is uncertain. Instability is plentiful throughout Thursday afternoon and evening, though wind shear is modest, at 15-25 kts across the CWA. Storm mode will when likely be stationary up-and-down cells, with main hazards being hail and damaging winds. However, model soundings are hinting at a limited threat for hail from high moisture throughout the hail growth zone which points to a more heavy rain signature. PWATs 1.5-2" across the area could lead to localized flooding, especially if storms train over the same area. A cold front will move through the Northland starting Friday morning and will move southeast throughout the day. Otherwise the environment will largely remain the same with plenty of instability and weak shear. PWATs will remain high, the threat for localized flooding continuing. Timing of the departure of the cold front differs among global models, and showers and storms may continue into Saturday, particularly in northwest Wisconsin. Once it passes, a ridge builds in for most of Sunday before chances for showers and storms return early next week. Timing is uncertain with discrepancy in the models. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Fog and stratus is starting to lift, but have TEMPOs in place for occasional dips in conditions for the next couple hours. VFR conditions will then prevail for the rest of the TAF period. There is a slight chance for some showers and storms at INL tonight, but probabilities are too low (10%) to include in the TAF. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Dense marine fog along the South Shore will persist into the morning, with visibilities as low as a quarter mile in some areas. Northeast winds at the head of the lake will continue and increase this afternoon, with gusts up to 15 kts and waves 1-2 ft expected. Lighter winds will be present across the rest of the near shore waters. Winds and waves will increase further for Thursday afternoon due to an approaching low pressure system. Strong thunderstorms are possible Thursday night through Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ002>004. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-147- 148. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML