630
FXUS63 KDLH 092335
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
635 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds with gusts of 15 to 25 mph (up to 35
  mph in central MN including the Brainerd area) continue into
  this evening and diminish tonight.

- Scattered rain showers are expected late afternoon through
  tonight ahead of a cold front. There is a 10-20 percent chance
  of a few thunderstorms.

- Temperatures trend a little cooler Friday and then warm up
  Saturday and Sunday.

- Rain chances return Sunday and Sunday night.

- Temps trend cooler late next week with rain chances returning
  Wednesday or Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching cool front will
broaden the area of cloud cover over northern Minnesota through
this evening. Showers are still expected to develop this
afternoon and spread eastward tonight. Radar echoes developed
over the past half hour east of Fargo and north of International
Falls per regional radar mosaics. CAMs appeared to be
consistently a little slow with the onset of precipitation. That
trend continues with the latest RAP/HRRR runs. The 18Z HRRR at
22Z appears to be similar to what we`re seeing in the mosaics.
Look for precipitation to fill in over the next few hours.

A compact and deep upper-level trough with a closed 300 mb low
at the center will propagate southeastward tonight. The cold
front and weak surface low will move into Minnesota around
10.00Z and transit the Northland overnight into Friday morning.
The rapid progression of the trough and surface features will
limit the precipitation chances. Ridging aloft will begin to
develop Friday morning over northern Minnesota and adjacent
areas of Manitoba and Ontario. The surge of cold air behind the
front will be short lived. Temps will be in the middle and upper
50s over most of the Northland with a narrow ribbon of low 60s
from near Brainerd east into the St. Croix River Valley. Winds
may be gusty again, mainly during the morning hours, due to deep
boundary layer mixing in the cold air advection behind the
front.

Southerly winds will return for Saturday which will usher in
slightly warmer temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. The upper-
level ridge will propagate eastward across the Upper Midwest
through Sunday. Rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms return to
the picture for Sunday and Sunday night due to isentropic lift
over Minnesota. Farther west a seasonably strong low pressure
system will move northeastward over western North Dakota into
the Canadian Prairies. That system will push another cold front
across the Northland Sunday night and Monday. While the
potential for widespread "warm sector" showers will be present,
any thunderstorm chances will likely need the additional forcing
for ascent of the cold front.

Temperatures trend a little cooler Monday through next
Thursday, although pretty close to normal. Highs will be in the
low to upper 50s. While the forecast becomes a bit muddled for
the second half of next week, cluster analysis points to rain
chances returning Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Scattered showers with an occasional embedded thunderstorm or
two are developing early this evening across central and north-
central Minnesota and will continue to move eastwards through
the evening and overnight. Thunderstorm coverage is too
sporadic to include in most TAFs, but short term amendments will
likely be needed if any approach TAF sites this evening. A cold
front over the Dakotas/western Minnesota border early this
evening will also move east through the Northland late tonight
and early Friday morning. Gusty southerly winds continue at
times this evening into early tonight ahead of the front, but
quickly veer northwesterly behind the front later tonight into
Friday as the front tracks east. LLWS is forecast this evening
into tonight as a strong southwesterly low-level jet slowly
slides east into Friday morning. Mixing in the boundary layer
behind the front, especially on daytime Friday, should bring
northwest winds of 9-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts. These winds
will then ease towards late Friday afternoon and evening as
surface high pressure settles into the region.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Southerly winds over western Lake Superior
and northeast winds over the southwest arm of Lake Superior late
this afternoon will veer south-southwesterly tonight and will
strengthen. Winds and waves will become hazardous to smaller
vessels near Grand Portage initially and then along the South
Shore. A cold front will propagate east over the waters tonight
and Friday morning which will veer winds northwesterly. There
may be a 2 to 6 hour lull in the stronger wind gusts as the
front moves through. Winds will strengthen again behind the
front and will become hazardous for small craft. There is a 30%
chance of gales over western Lake Superior during the day
Friday. We added the North Shore waters to the Small Craft
Advisory for 4 AM to 4 PM Friday. We also extended the existing
advisory until 11.03Z (10 PM Friday evening). The period of
strong winds will be relatively short lived as high pressure
will build into the region quickly Friday evening. Gusty winds
return Sunday and additional Small Craft Advisories may be
needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT
     Friday for LSZ121-145>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for
     LSZ141>144.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Huyck