525
FXUS63 KDLH 121128
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow ends this morning in the Arrowhead. Slight chances
  for light rain/snow mixed precipitation Thursday morning along
  the Canadian Border.

- Warming temperatures well above normal for the rest of the
  work week. Temperatures return closer to normal after the
  weekend system.

- A large Colorado low will bring a mixed bag of precipitation
  to the Northland. A bit of each season will make its
  appearance as we start with rain with isolated storms, then a
  mix with freezing rain possible, then snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

A weak shortwave with warm air advection is bringing snow
showers across the Borderlands and Arrowhead this morning. This
is expected to weaken and move east throughout the morning,
leaving behind only a trace to a half inch of snow in the
Arrowhead. Flow aloft will switch to the south today, and
warming temperatures will begin. The warmest conditions will be
in the Brainerd Lakes area over to Burnett county in Wisconsin
with temperatures in the 50s.

As warm air advection continues, another round of precipitation
is expected tonight in the same areas as this morning. Dry air
will be present aloft, and precipitation could start as freezing
drizzle shortly before transitioning to rain/snow mix as the
boundary layer moistens surface temperatures increase. Also
like this morning, any accumulations will be light. Winds will
become gusty Thursday late afternoon and evening as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of the weekend system, with gusts up to
25 mph possible across the area.

Temperatures will reach their peak on Friday, with highs in the 50s
and 60s across the CWA. Brainerd`s record high of 64 will likely
be tied and could be broken. Later on in the day, the awaited Colorado
low will move northeast into the upper Midwest. Southerly
advection of warm, moist air along with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg
and bulk shear values in the 30s will lead to chances for strong
thunderstorms embedded in rain showers on Friday. Hazards will
include small hail and gusty winds. Marginally severe
thunderstorms with large hail to about an inch and damaging
winds are possible but not likely (5-10% chance). Thunderstorms
will mainly occur Friday afternoon and evening before
probabilities for thunderstorms decrease overnight.

Moderate to heavy rain is also expected on Friday, with some of
our southern and western areas forecasted to receive a quarter
to a half inch of rain Friday and Friday night alone. Any areas
that still have snowpack and/or are frozen will see the rain
mostly run off. Some ponding to localized minor flooding are
possible in these areas.

Early Saturday morning, the back edge of the system moves east
across Minnesota, decreasing surface temperatures to below
freezing. However, temperatures aloft remain warm, which will
likely lead to freezing rain. Models range in how quickly
temperatures aloft will cool, which leads to uncertainty on
freezing rain duration and accumulations. If warm air aloft is
quickly cooled and duration is short, there could be no ice
accumulations due to the surface still being warm due to the
temperatures from the previous couple days. But if warm air
aloft lingers and duration is longer (a few hours), some
elevated surfaces could cool enough for a glaze of ice
accumulation. The most likely timing for freezing rain will be
early morning Saturday to as late as mid morning.

By late morning, precipitation behind the cold front will have
switched over to snow. North central Minnesota will see the
most snow accumulation, but the eastern extent of accumulating
snow will especially depend on the track of the low pressure
center. Currently, it is northeast up the middle of the
Northland, but there is a possibility that it could shift east
depending on the activity that occurs further south. As the low
moves further north, snow will become lighter as Saturday
progresses, limiting snow accumulations across the Arrowhead
and portions of northwest Wisconsin. Snow is expected to end
Sunday morning.

On the back side of the system, strong northwest winds will
persist after the snow ends through all of Sunday from a tight
pressure gradient behind the low. Wind gusts 30-40 mph are not
out of the question, and the North Shore could see gusts above
40 mph. A Wind Advisory could be needed for the North Shore.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions expected for most terminals. DLH is experiencing
lower ceilings and visibilities due to low stratus being
advected off Lake Superior. This will likely persist most of the
early morning, but they should dissipate as the boundary layer
begins mixing in the late morning. Light south to southwest
winds will become variable overnight tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Southeast to easterly winds will continue over Lake Superior for
the next couple days. Gusts up to 20 kts and waves to 3 ft along
the shores of western Lake Superior are expected on Thursday
from tightening pressure gradients ahead of the weekend system.
Winds will become light and variable overnight.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML