756
FXUS63 KDLH 071131
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
631 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are expected today and tonight with a warm
  front. A couple severe storms possible towards northwest
  Minnesota.

- Cooler than average temperatures and wrap around showers
  behind this system.

- System skirting to our south may bring more showers and storms
  in the late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Flow aloft and at the surface today will shift to the southwest,
which will help advect warm, moist air into the region.
This environment will lead to scattered general thunderstorms
throughout the afternoon prior to the arrival of a cold front
later this evening. Due to a warm nose in the vertical profiles
of the atmosphere, any updrafts will be cut off in the mid
levels. In addition, MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg and modest bulk
shear (around 20 kts) will likely lead to popcorn storms this
afternoon. The instability will linger and increasing shear will
keep the chances for thunderstorms going overnight embedded in a
line of showers moving northwest to southeast. Model soundings
show the profile becoming more moist and with long, skinny CAPE,
indicating heavy rain. Depending on where storms develop, areas
in the Northland could see a half to one inch of precipitation.

For Sunday and Monday, the low pressure system stalls out over
the area and lingering scattered showers are expected.
Temperatures will be below normal in the low 60s across the
area due to a cold air mass with the system. Light additional
rainfall amounts expected from the wrap around showers. A rumble
of thunder or two is possible embedded within the showers.

Under west-northwesterly flow, a few more shortwaves will lead
to scattered showers and storms in the mid week. Global models
are slightly different in placement of the showers and storms,
but generally agree that portions of the northland will see
light rainfall amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Foggy conditions this morning are lifting as the sun rises. Two
rounds of showers and storms are expected today. The first round
will affect mainly DLH and HYR, with showers and storms in the
vicinity with a few possibly moving over the terminals. A
second, more widespread round of showers and storms move through
this evening and overnight that will affect all sites. MVFR
conditions are expected with these storms, but brief IFR
visibilities with the heaviest rains will also be possible.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Northeast winds today will turn to the southwest tonight and
gusts increase to around 20 kts for Sunday across western Lake
Superior. Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and
tonight with a low pressure system.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML