394
FXUS63 KDLH 191851
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
151 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected to initiate along a cold front this
afternoon and evening, with scattered severe storms possible. Large
hail, damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and locally heavy rain may
occur.

- Another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.
Depending on timing and placement, a few strong storms could occur.

- Seasonable temperatures return Sunday and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

As expected, a stacked upper level low continues to steadily march
along the International Border this afternoon, pushing a north-south
cold front into and across Minnesota. As instability builds and our
cap erodes, quick upscale growth is expected as storms ignite along
the cold front, taking advantage of 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE and 25-
40knots bulk shear. Storms are expected to ignite first in southern
Minnesota and unzip to the north through the Twin Ports. A secondary
area of storms closer the upper level low should also pop off across
the Iron Range and into the MN Arrowhead. CAMs are still in decent
agreement for ignition in the Northland in the 4-6pm timeframe, then
pushing east through 10-11 PM across the Arrowhead and NW WI.

Across the board, large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes
are possible hazards. An initially discrete mode is expected to
become kind of messy as it evolves into clusters. Bulk shear is
expected to wane into the evening hours, reducing the chance for a
true QLCS type system to be realized. The one exception might be in
the MN Arrowhead where locally high shear close to the low could
help more of a linear system come to fruition. Slightly more backed
winds in the northern portion of the CWA could lead to enhanced SRH
and better low level curvature in hodographs, which will need to be
monitored for an isolated tornado threat. Otherwise marginal SRH and
already fairly southerly winds further south may lead to a reduced
tornado threat. Large hail up to ping pong size in diameter remains
possible, especially in the first couple hours of convection
initiation. Damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible, especially
with any more linear clusters or decaying storms. In addition to the
severe threat, some quick downpours and locally heavy rain is
possible, thanks to our very moist environment. PWATs at
International Falls were 1.46 inches this morning, which is a new
daily max for the 12z sounding. Some high rainfall rates are likely
with storms, and were already observed in some of our morning
convection. However, with antecedent dry conditions, 1 hour flash
flood guidance is 2-3 inches across much of the area expected to see
heavy rain this afternoon and evening, so we would need very
impressive rates in order to get any minor flooding.

Beyond today, the Northland finds itself stuck between a high
pressure over the southern Plains and an upper level trough bearing
down from Canada. Global models have come into better agreement on
an oblong trough brushing over northern Minnesota Saturday, bringing
our next chance of precipitation, most likely in the afternoon and
evening. Some instability is present and if the cap can be eroded a
cold front would have access to over 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE (mostly in
NW WI) which could produce some stronger afternoon thunderstorms.
Much to the approbation of summer lovers, above normal temperatures
are expected to continue through Saturday with highs rising into the
70s and low 80s. We are still on track to see more normal
temperatures return Sunday behind Saturday`s front with highs in the
60s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. These relatively cooler
temperatures should continue into next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Bit of a mix of conditions early this afternoon with an area of MVFR
stratus moving along a frontal region while clearing skies persist
outside of that. Should see showers and thunderstorms ignite along
this front late this afternoon and push east. Brainerd is not likely
to see this activity as the front is already past the terminal. A
similar situation for INL though that terminal may be on the edge of
some thunderstorm activity. Expect strong to severe thunderstorms as
the front passes with brief reductions in visibility due to heavy
rain. Hail and strong winds are also possible with passing
thunderstorms. The front should clear HIB and DLH by 01-03Z and HYR
by 03-05Z. Have tried to add tempo groups for the most likely
thunderstorm time at these sites. Conditions improve back to VFR for
all MN terminals post front. At HYR, MVFR to IFR fog is possible
before VFR conditions return around sunrise.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A cold front brings a chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon
into the evening hours. Strong winds and large hail are possible
along with frequent lightning. Thunderstorms should be past Western
Lake Superior by late evening and winds begin to turn southerly.
Friday, expected southwesterly winds with some breezy afternoon
gusts behind today`s cold front. Some gusts of 15-20 knots are
possible, but Small Craft Advisory criteria are not expected to be
met. South to southwest winds continue Saturday, mostly less than 10-
15 knots, and there is a chance for some showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening. Winds become northwesterly Sunday,
fairly light around to less than 10 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens