406
FXUS63 KDLH 280530
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with isolated non-severe thunderstorms to
  continue this evening, especially in the Arrowhead and north-
  central Wisconsin.

- Patchy frost will be possible on Thursday night into Friday morning,
  most likely in the higher elevations of north-central
  Wisconsin.

- Conditions from Thursday into early next week will be dry and
  overall quiet. The next chance for widespread rain arrives mid
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move across the
Arrowhead this afternoon and evening as a shortwave and cold
front moves northwest to southeast across the region. The cold
front is currently moving south across northwest Ontario, and
should enter the Borderlands early this evening, continuing
south overnight. Precipitation chances will be mainly ahead of
this front, along with gusty southwest winds. Behind the front,
winds veer to north, then northeasterly by Thursday morning. We
have not managed to build much CAPE this afternoon, and we have
some other factors keeping the thunderstorm chances low, and am
not too surprise to see little in the way of lightning this
afternoon. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible tonight in
the wake of the cold front as skies clear and high pressure
begins to build in, especially for areas that have gotten
precipitation today.

Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow behind that front,
with highs only in the mid 60s to low 70s. CAA from Lake
Superior is expected tomorrow as strong northeast winds develop
following the cold frontal passage. This will likely cool high
temps to the low 60s or even upper 50s for areas immediately
downwind of Lake Superior.

Frost will be possible for parts of the area Thursday night
into Friday morning. The most likely location to see this patchy
frost will be the higher elevations of north-central WI, where
skies will be clear for the longest and winds will be lightest.
Current probability of temps less than 40 degrees in this area
is around 60%. Suspect the straight NBM may be bias corrected
too warm given the trends in the past few weeks, so have pushed
the forecast closer to the 25th percentile for overnight low
temps tonight through Friday night with that ridge of high
pressure and drier air in control of our weather.

As the ridge of high pressure at the surface slides off to the
east through the weekend, some weak shortwaves may pass across
the area on the west side of the main upper low over Quebec.
There are some indications of precipitation in the area on
Friday, but I suspect there will not be enough moisture and we
will be dry instead. There should not be any widespread
precipitation chances Saturday or Sunday due to this, with the
influence of the high pressure lingering and a general lack of
moisture. Temperatures should be near normal through the
weekend.

Our next chance for rain comes in the Tuesday night-Wednesday
time frame, as a strong upper low drops into the Upper Midwest.
Near normal temperatures continue through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A cold front continues to drop out of the North across the region
tonight with radar showing a few storms still moving south. This
activity will diminish and exit the region by the early moving
hours. Additional, we are already seeing widespread dense fog
developing and expect this to continue through the morning hours. By
the late morning hours fog will lift and ceilings will gradually
improve by mid day. Expect widespread VFR conditions by the
afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Breezy southwest winds today will diminish this evening before
a cold front moves across western Lake Superior and causes winds
to veer around to the northeast by Thursday morning. Will be
allowing the Small Craft Advisory currently in effect expire at
4 pm as those winds are decreasing. However, behind the front
northeast winds will increase on Thursday, causing building
waves into the southwest arm of the lake. Will be hoisting Small
Craft Advisories beginning early Thursday morning and
continuing through much of the day. Winds diminish again in the
late afternoon and evening, allowing conditions to improve once
again. Winds diminish for Friday into the weekend with gusts
under 10kts, with waves of 1 foot or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010-011-
     018-019-026.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM CDT
     this afternoon for LSZ143>146.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 10 PM CDT
     this evening for LSZ147-148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...LE