861
FXUS63 KDLH 021039
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
539 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend
  with some record high temperatures possible.

- Aside from some shower activity in the Arrowhead today, low
  chances for precipitation are expected through much of the
  period.

- Strong wind gusts to 45 mph are expected Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A weak disturbance passing through the region may bring a few
isolated showers and perhaps a non-severe thunderstorm to the
Minnesota Arrowhead today with up to a 1/4" of rainfall
possible, but NW Wisconsin should remain dry.

The bigger story is the unseasonably warm air that arrives for
the end of the week. While normal high temperatures for early
October are in the lower 60s, we expect readings to climb into
the upper 70s and even upper 80s for Friday and Saturday. This
surge of warmth will likely challenge, or break, record high
temperatures.

As we head into the weekend, the focus will shift from the heat to
increasing fire weather concerns. A storm system developing over
the Dakotas will cause winds to strengthen across the Northland,
especially on Saturday and Sunday. We can expect frequent gusts of
30 to 40 mph, with some potentially reaching 50 mph or more. At
the same time, the air will become dry on Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front though it may be hard to achieve really low
RH values in the warm sector with PWATs of 1.4 though mixing is
deep and dry. This combination of strong winds and low humidity
will create elevated, and possibly near-critical, fire weather
conditions. Please use extreme caution with any outdoor burning
this weekend.

That same storm system will largely miss us with its rainfall,
with the best chances for any showers remaining confined to our far
northwestern counties Sunday night. The system`s main effect will
be the cold front that sweeps through Sunday night into Monday. This
front will bring an end to the warm weather, ushering in much cooler
air for the start of the new work week. Temperatures will return
to more normal seasonal levels, and high pressure is expected to
keep our weather generally quiet and dry through the early part
of the week. These ongoing dry conditions may keep fire weather
concerns elevated into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. An
isolated shower cannot be ruled out across the Arrowhead this
morning. Through the day, rain chances increase and expand from
HIB to DLH. This will set the stage for a foggy night tonight
with dense fog in areas where rain occurred.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

For mariners on Lake Superior, hazardous conditions are
expected to develop this weekend. Conditions will be favorable
through Friday, but a strong storm system will cause southerly
winds to strengthen significantly on Saturday and peak on
Sunday. Southwesterly gale-force gusts to 35 knots are possible,
which will build large and dangerous waves across the lake. All
boaters should exercise extreme caution and consider making
plans to be in safe harbor before conditions deteriorate on
Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

The upcoming very warm to hot period for mid-fall is creating a
forecast of some possible broken record high and warm low
temperatures in the Northland. Below are the days which have the
highest chances of multiple stations tying or breaking these
temperature records. These forecast temperatures are about 20
degrees F (highs) and about 25 degrees (warm lows) above normal
for early October. High temperatures on Saturday could see a
fair gradient across the Northland depending on where the
frontal boundary sets up with showers possibly ongoing north of
it and the very warm temperatures persist south of it. Latest
trends have the front setting up along the International Border,
which will keep the higher end of temperatures possible across
much of the region.

Record High Temperatures:

October 3: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      77       82/2023
KINL:      80       84/2023
KBRD:      85       84/2023
KHIB:      81       83/1953

October 4:
KDLH:      82       83/1922
KINL:      82       82/2011
KBRD:      87       82/2011
KHIB:      83       78/2011


Record Warm Low Temperatures:

October 4: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      60       58/1914
KINL:      62       60/1914
KBRD:      67       60/1914
KHIB:      59       54/1969
KASX:      60       59/1931

October 5:
KASX:      57       56/1975

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe
CLIMATE...Wolfe