328
FXUS63 KDLH 181940
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple stray rain and snow showers possible through
  Saturday morning with minimal accumulations.

- Mostly dry this weekend with some near-critical fire weather
  possible.

- Next system moves through late Sunday into Monday, bringing
  rain and some snow, mostly to the eastern portions of the
  Northland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Areas of clouds and a little drizzle are moving through the area
this afternoon, with some clearing moving into central Minnesota.
This cloud/drizzle activity is being driven by a jet streak aloft,
but fighting a losing battle with dry air dropping down from the
Canadian Plains. As an attending long wave trough sweeps over the
area tonight into Saturday morning, that may be able to spur a
couple more weak showers in far northern MN, but little accumulation
is expected. A few snowflakes could mix in.

This weekend, should see a couple dry days with a brief period of
upper level ridging. With steep low level lapse rates and a
widespread dry airmass, this could lead to Saturday and Sunday
afternoons seeing tanking relative humidities into the 20-30% range.
On Saturday, this would be accompanied by westerly winds of 5-10 mph
with some gusts nearing 15 mph. On Sunday winds switch and become
more southerly and slightly stronger, sustained 5-15mph with gusts
of 15-25mph. This could lead to some near-critical fire weather
conditions on either day. One caveat to the Sunday RH will be along
Lake Superior, where thanks to slightly more easterly winds
humidities could stay a little higher.

Late Sunday into Monday, a upper level trough and attending vort max
are progged to sweep up from the southern and central plains,
pulling some Gulf moisture along with it. Agreement for placement of
this low continues to improve, putting the eastern half of our CWA
under the potential to be impacted by the occluded quadrant of this
storm, with the best chance for 0.5" of QPF or more across NW WI.
Due to some temperature differences of a couple degrees in either
direction, there are still some fairly large discrepancies when it
comes to possible snowfall and resulting accumulations. For now, we
have a possible several tenths of an inch for portions of the MN
Arrowhead and NW WI, but a high end of a couple inches is possible
(10-40% chance). Accumulations are unlikely to stick around or have
significant impacts with this current forecast, especially since
highs on Monday should rise above freezing.

We`ll have continued chances for precipitation on and off
through next week, with temperatures around to above normal,
raising into the 40s and 50s to near 60F for some areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Conditions have been steadily improving across the region today,
with some VFR and MVFR ceilings returning. We should see at least
MVFR if not VFR come to all terminals by this evening, except INL.
Along the border a resurgence of IFR ceilings is possible overnight
into Saturday morning. Gusty northerly winds continue through this
afternoon with gusts of 15-20 knots, and then should die down
overnight, turning to become slightly northwesterly.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Northerly winds of 5-15 knots continue through the day Saturday. A
couple stronger gusts up to 20 knots could be possible here and
there. Into Sunday, winds should turn and become south to
southeasterly, again around 5-15 knots. These winds become
northeasterly and strengthen Sunday night into Monday with an
incoming low pressure system. Gusts up to 25 knots are likely,
and there is a 10-20% chance of gale force gusts. Winds should
become northwesterly and decrease into Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens