805
FXUS63 KDLH 300552
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very dry conditions on Monday in combination with gusty winds
  associated with the cold front may cause critical fire weather
  conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect.

- A predominantly dry cold front moves through the region late
  Monday bringing gusty winds for Monday into Tuesday.

- Temperatures trend around normal for the remainder of the
  coming week behind Monday`s cold front, with continued dry
  conditions and nightly frost chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

We have gotten warmer and drier once again today, with
temperatures getting close to the 75th percentile of the NBM,
mainly for inland areas of the Northland. Dewpoints are close to
the 10th percentile, putting minimum RH values into the 20 to
30 percent range for a large portion of the area. Winds have
been on the lower side, preventing conditions from getting out
of control on the fire weather side of things today. After
coordination with partners, have issued an SPS for these
extremely dry conditions for the rest of today.

We have been monitoring a mostly dry cold front that will move
through the region Monday afternoon and evening. Ahead of that
front we can expect the warm and dry trend to continue, and have
gone with the 75th percentile for high temperatures, and the
10th percentile for dewpoints, producing high temperatures in
the 70s to low 80s, and minimum RH values of 20 to 40 percent.
The conditions of most concern will be around the Brainerd
Lakes, where the winds will be strongest and the RH values will
be lowest, and have decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for
Monday from late morning through the early evening for Cass,
Crow Wing and Aitkin counties. With these excessively dry
conditions in the low levels, precipitation looks rather iffy,
but have maintained some small pops under 25 percent right
behind the front as it moves across the area Monday afternoon
and evening. QPF values with it will barely wet the pavement.
The windy conditions right behind the front Monday night will
approach 30 mph during the evening hours, only gradually
diminishing overnight into Tuesday.

The cold front on Monday will usher in some cooler conditions,
with northwest to west flow aloft and ridging building into the
area at the surface for Tuesday into Tuesday night. This ridge
of high pressure appears to slide through the area faster than
previously though, so the potential for frost/freeze has lowered
for Wednesday morning as compared to previous forecasts. High
temperatures will be coolest on Tuesday, only riding into the
upper 50s to mid 60s. It may seem a bit of a shock, but these
temperatures will be near normal for October 1st.

Warmth returns for Wednesday, with a brief shot of warm air
advection before another cold front slides through. This front
also appears largely dry, but we will get back into cooler
temperatures behind it for the latter half of the week with
highs closer to normal. Next weekend spread in the models really
increases as some are trying to bring some precipitation
chances and cooler temperatures to the area, but others are
maintaining our mostly zonal flow with warm, dry conditions. Do
not have a lot of optimism in getting the cooler and more moist
scenario, but the potential is out there.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Areas of fog are expected overnight, though the lowest
visibilities will be found away from the terminals. VLIFR
visibility and ceilings will spread inland from Lake Superior
overnight and will affect K4R5, KASX, K3CU, KDYT, KSUW, KOLG,
and KCOQ. MVFR to IFR visibility is possible at HYR and DLH. The
latest HREF guidance suggests a 10-30% chance of IFR visibility
at DLH. HYR saw temporary IFR visibility in the past few hours.
Think temporary visibility reductions are likely there.

Low-level wind shear is a concern at the Minnesota terminals
tonight and Monday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet
will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. The core of
strongest winds will pass over INL where 2kft winds of 60 knots
are possible. The wind shear threat will decrease as surface
wind speeds rise with mixing after sunrise.

Cold front will propagate eastward across the Northland today
and tonight. Winds will turn westerly and eventually
northwesterly behind the boundary and will remain gusty into
Monday evening. A few sprinkles or light showers are not out of
the question near the international border.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Northeast winds will gradually decrease overnight with winds
becoming southerly along much of the South Shore.

Winds will become southerly for all areas on Monday ahead of a
cold front approaching from the west, but remaining at or less
than 15 knots with a few higher gusts. The cold front will move
across the lake Monday evening, causing winds to become
northwest and increase, gusting 25 to 30 knots overnight and
Tuesday before diminishing Tuesday night. Another Small Craft Advisory
may be needed late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday
evening. Another period of strong southwest winds is expected on
Wednesday, when we may need another round of Advisories and
perhaps Gale Warnings.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for MNZ025-033>036.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Melde