128
FXUS63 KDLH 112037
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
337 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon
  into the early evening, especially in north-central Minnesota
  due to lower RH and elevated southerly winds.

- Strong winds are expected on Sunday with on and off rain
  showers through the day. Isolated thunderstorms may be
  possible, but the potential is low.

- Cooler temps and dry conditions are expected early to mid this
  upcoming week. The next best chance for widespread rain
  arrives late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Clear skies have been occurring across the vast majority of the CWA
today as a Hudson Bay high pressure remains in control of the
pattern. While conditions have overall been benign today, the one
concern has been near-critical fire weather conditions. Southerly
flow has provided WAA into the Northland, which when combined with
the dry air associated with the Hudson Bay high has reduced min RH
this afternoon into the 25-30% range. In addition to the dry
conditions, southerly winds have been gusty, reaching 20-25 mph at
times. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for Cass and
Crow Wing Counties until 01z this evening due to near-critical fire
weather conditions.

A strong southerly LLJ is expected to develop this evening into
tonight as a deep trough located over the western CONUS begins to
move to the east and the Hudson Bay high slowly propagates east.
850mb winds are forecast to increase in excess of 50 knots in north-
central MN tonight, with these strong winds aloft at 850mb
expanding across most of the CWA through the day Sunday. Model
soundings show that even minimal diurnal mixing will result in
strong winds on Sunday, with a 70% chance for gusts exceeding 30
mph for large portions of the CWA and a 40% chance for
localized wind gusts greater than 35 mph on Sunday afternoon.

In addition to the breezy winds, this approaching trough will bring
widespread on and off rain showers through the day Sunday. CAMs
strongly suggest the potential for radar reflectivities arriving as
early as later this evening. However, with a sizable amount of
dry air in the low-levels, this initial round of precip will
likely fall as virga. However, rain chances increase heading
into Sunday as the strong LLJ advects moisture into the CWA
tonight and the showers aloft help moisten the lower levels.
Total rainfall amounts tonight into Monday morning will
generally be in the 0.1-0.3" range. However, locally higher
amounts will be possible near the North Shore terrain ridge as
strong southeast winds provide some orographic enhancement.
Expect rain to end from west to east across the CWA late Sunday
evening into Monday morning as a cold front sweeps through.

Following the cold front, cooler temps filter into the area on
Monday into Tuesday with a drier airmass. High temps will be
noticeably cooler, especially on Tuesday, in the 50s. Overnight lows
will also be cool, with widespread sub-freezing temps possible for
large portions of the area early this upcoming week.

A ridge is strongly favored to build around midweek, resulting in
high temps returning back to the mid 50s to low 60s for the latter
half of the week. This building ridge will keep precipitation
chances minimal through Wednesday. The next best chance for
widespread rain arrives on Thursday into Friday as another low
pressure moves into the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Cloud cover will be increasing late this afternoon into tonight as
low pressure moves towards the Upper Midwest. A strong southerly low-
level jet is expected to develop tonight ahead of this approaching
low pressure, resulting in widespread LLWS for most terminals. In
addition to strong winds aloft, south-southeast winds will become
gusty tonight and remain elevated into Sunday. Scattered rain
showers move in tonight into tomorrow morning across northern MN,
with VFR conditions likely to prevail. There is a 20% chance for
MVFR cigs in KBRD, but lower cigs are unlikely before 18z
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Northeast winds occurring this afternoon near the Twin Ports
have resulted in building waves to around 2 feet. With northeast
winds expected to continue this evening, a Small Craft Advisory
was issued for waves building to around 4 feet late this
afternoon into the evening.

Winds are expected to shift to the southeast tonight and increase as
low pressure moves towards western Lake Superior. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect through Sunday into early Monday due to
these breezy southeast winds and building waves. On and off rain
showers are forecast tomorrow as this low pressure moves through the
Upper Midwest and a cold front sweeps through on Sunday night into
early Monday morning. Expect winds to shift from southeast to west-
northwest following the cold front.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT
     Sunday for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh