861
FXUS63 KDLH 071014
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
414 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog is expected early this morning east of the
  I-35 corridor into portions of northwest WI. Expect fog to
  dissipate later this morning.

- Mostly sunny to sunny skies are expected this afternoon
  through Friday. High temperatures will be around the mid 40s
  to low 50s today and tomorrow.

- Widespread rain showers are likely to start Saturday afternoon
  and evening and continue into Sunday. Total rainfall will
  likely be light at under half an inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A fairly benign pattern is expected to settle over the CWA for the
remainder of the workweek starting today. A positively tilted
upper level trough, which was stretched from the Four Corners
region to the upper Midwest yesterday afternoon, will be
propagating downstream of the upper Great Lakes this morning.
With the jet stream remaining well the the north in Canada and a
cutoff low pressure system slowly moving east from the
Southwestern CONUS to Southern Plains, this will result in quiet
conditions for our area.

Expect patchy fog and low stratus this morning to dissipate this
afternoon leading to mostly sunny to sunny skies. High temps today
will be similar to yesterday, ranging from the mid 40s to around 50
degrees. One thing of note today into tonight will be an increased
pressure gradient, which will result in breezy west to southwest
winds. While the majority of impacts will be seen on Lake Superior,
where Gales are expected, wind gusts inland today of 25 to 35 mph
will be possible, especially north of U.S. Highway 2.

Mostly sunny to sunny skies continue on Friday and Friday night as a
ridge briefly builds at 500mb and sfc high pressure develops. This
sfc high will ease breezy southwest winds tonight, with light and
variable winds expected on Friday. More active conditions arrive on
Saturday as the cutoff low pressure, currently over the Southwest
CONUS, propagates into the CWA. Widespread rain showers move in
Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain will continue into Sunday,
gradually ending from west to east through the day. Total rainfall
amounts will generally be light, with only a 25% chance of exceeding
0.5". Current expectations are that the area of highest QPF will
occur east of the I-35 corridor into northwest WI and in the
Arrowhead region. The Brainerd Lakes area and north-central MN will
see the lightest amounts of QPF, with only a 25% chance of total
precip exceeding 0.2".

After the low pressure system moves downstream of the CWA on Sunday,
there will still be slight chance for scattered showers on Sunday
night into early Monday as cyclonic flow aloft persists and a weak
shortwave moves through on Monday. The next best chance for
widespread precipitation arrives mid next week as a Colorado Low
potentially develops. This system could potentially tap into colder
air aloft, which could lead to light snow accumulations in northern
portions of the CWA. However, given the high uncertainty seen in
ensemble plumes, it`s too early for specifics.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Low stratus is expected this morning with cig heights being mainly
MVFR with areas of IFR cigs. While conditions will mainly be MVFR to
IFR, there will be pockets of VFR this morning within brief breaks
in the stratus. Fog development is possible around sunrise in BRD
and HYR with a 40% chance for visibility of IFR or lower. Expect the
low stratus to clear around midday Thursday into the early afternoon
with conditions becoming VFR. West-southwest winds are expected to
be strong today with LLWS developing Thursday evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 414 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Southwest winds are expected to increase today, with gusts of 20-25
kts expected by mid-morning, eventually peaking to 30-40 kts late
this afternoon through the evening. Small Craft Advisories begin for
all nearshore zones this morning as west to southwest winds
increase. Gale Warnings come into effect late this afternoon for the
North Shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage and along the South
Shore from Port Wing to the Outer Apostle Islands. Winds will
be easing Friday morning as high pressure builds with much
calmer conditions expected on Friday afternoon and Friday night.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM CST Friday
     for LSZ121-141>145-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ140-
     146-147-150.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CST this
     evening for LSZ140.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CST Friday for
     LSZ146-147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh