782
FXUS63 KDLH 092009
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
309 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to record breaking high temperatures in the 50s/60s on
  Monday with dry weather may lead to near-critical fire weather
  conditions in the afternoon.

- A strong cold front late-afternoon and evening may bring
  widespread gusts from 30-40 mph.

- A potent Colorado low is still expected to bring widespread
  rain and potentially some thunderstorms to the region Friday-
  Saturday with some accumulating snow possible going into
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

This afternoon through Monday:

Spring weather is dominating this afternoon with current
temperatures mostly in the 50s across the region. There`s even a
59 degree observation at Hinckley! The ridge axis aloft will
move over the region on Monday, and southwesterly winds gusting
in the 20-25 mph range are expected during the afternoon. With a
warm and dry air mass in place, we are expecting temperatures
even warmer than today. Went on the higher end of model guidance
for highs tomorrow since we`ve certainly warmed up well today
and expect a similar (but warmer) air mass tomorrow. Highs in
the 50s and 60s are expected pretty much everywhere, and around
the Brainerd Lakes to I-35 corridor south of Moose Lake where
snow is pretty much all gone, highs in the mid to perhaps even
upper 60s are all certainly possible. Some higher clouds may
keep the possibility of highs in the 70s mostly off the table,
and really there isn`t any model guidance suggesting that temps
will warm any higher than the 60s. The dry air mass in place
combining with the breezy winds are expected to lead to near-
critical fire weather conditions around the Brainerd Lakes area.
All-in-all, a warm and breezy Monday with partial sunshine
expected.

Monday evening and night:

The weather is expected to change very quickly from northwest
to southeast as a strong cold front passes through. Widespread
winds gusting to 30-40 mph are expected Monday evening and
night, and some 45 mph gusts along the North Shore are possible
as well, where a Wind Advisory may be needed. With the strong
frontogenesis and a narrow corridor of 0.50" PWATs passing
through, some rain quickly changing to snow showers are possible
as well (up to 60% chance along the Canadian border). The
threat of snow squalls that could lead to a flash freeze or 1/4
mile or less visibilities is not high right now since this front
is expected to pass through so quickly. Maybe a 10-15% chance
for snow squalls, but if they did occur, they are not expected
to be widespread.

Tuesday through Thursday:

High pressure moves in from the west going into Tuesday, so
quiet and relatively cooler weather is expected with some
sunshine. Southerly return flow develops Tuesday night going
into Wednesday as the high quickly moves east and upper level
ridging is expected to dominate through Thursday with generally
quiet and warming weather. We may once again be flirting with
some record highs Thursday into Friday, especially to the south.

Friday through Sunday:

Perhaps the biggest story in the extended is continuing to watch
for the possibility of a potent late-winter / early-spring
Colorado low that still has very good model agreement in
developing in association with a strong upper-level trough that
becomes negatively tilted on Friday. This would cause the low to
deepen quickly and take a northeasterly track through the
region. While there`s still some uncertainty on the exact storm
path, there`s high confidence that this will be a strong low
taking a track through the upper Midwest Friday and Saturday,
with lingering precipitation into Sunday.

Precipitation type should be all rain Friday and Friday night,
and PWATs may rise into the 0.5" to slightly over 1" range
Friday into Friday night with a moisture connection from the
Gulf of America. Some of that is still in question though as
potent thunderstorm activity well to our south may eat into how
much moisture makes its way north a bit. Speaking of
thunderstorms, parts of northwest Wisconsin may get clipped by
some instability that could produce some non-severe to perhaps
marginally severe (~5% chance) storms Friday afternoon and
evening. Much of that potential remains uncertain at this point,
though.

As far as rainfall amounts, those remain rather uncertain at
this time as well, but there is potential for some heavier
amounts that could exceed 1" depending on storm track and
evolution. With plenty of frost still in the soil, this could
pose a threat for some ponding of water or perhaps even some
localized minor flooding.

The other unknown which is very dependent on storm track is the
potential for accumulating snow on the back side. Ensemble
solutions are all over the place with this, and will likely
continue to be for a few days until the track can be better
nailed down. With that said, if the storm were to take a more
easterly track, a band of snow on the west side of the low could
impact the region. If the storm stays a bit more westerly, then
snow accumulations will likely be minimal Saturday evening into
Sunday (though in either case, at least light snow is likely to
occur as the storm exits to the northeast). Sunday will likely
feel a bit more wintry with cold air spilling in from the west
to northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy conditions
this afternoon are expected to lighten up before around 00z. There
is a ~20% chance for some MVFR conditions tonight with some
light fog possible, but it may be too dry for it to form. Did
not include it in the TAFs at this time, but HIB would have the
best chance for it if anywhere. Gusty southwest winds develop
aloft tonight, and some LLWS may be possible later tonight at
HIB/INL. Winds pick up at the surface from the southwest Monday
morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Breezy west to northwest winds along the North Shore are
expected to decrease fairly quickly late this afternoon with
wind speeds below 10 kt tonight. Winds pick up steadily from the
southwest on Monday, then abruptly turn northwesterly as a
potent cold front passes through. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed late Monday afternoon and a Gale Watch is in
effect for most of the North Shore and outer Apostle Islands
Monday night. High pressure moves in Tuesday into Tuesday night,
leading to improving conditions.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Record High Temperatures:

March 10:
KDLH: 58/2015 - Forecast: 58
KBRD: 58/2012 - Forecast: 67
KASX: 61/2015 - Forecast: 59

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 10:
KASX: 35/1915 - Forecast: 33

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
     140-141-146>148-150.
     Gale Watch from Monday evening through late Monday night for
     LSZ140>143-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
CLIMATE...JDS