392
FXUS63 KDLH 150543
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1143 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fairly quiet weather with above normal temperatures persists
  through the weekend.

- Some very light rain is possible Saturday night into Sunday
  morning, most likely over northern Minnesota.

- A larger low pressure system is expected to impact the Upper
  Midwest mid to late next week. There is still a lot of
  uncertainty but some snow accumulations are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 436 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Tonight through Saturday...

Skies will remain cloudy overnight. Warm air advection aloft
will encounter a zone of enhanced isentropic lift tonight over
northern Minnesota and northwest Ontario. There is a small
chance, around 10 percent, of drizzle or a few rain or snow
showers associated with that area of lift. Areas north of the
Iron Range into the Arrowhead will have the best chance of light
precipitation tonight. With the clouds lingering over the
Northland, I raised forecast low temperatures by several
degrees.

A little warmer Friday with warm air advection continuing.
Ridging aloft will propagate over the area and there may be
enough subsidence to erode the cloud cover. There should be a
few peeks of sunshine, at least. Highs will reach the upper 40s
to low 50s.

Clouds return Friday night and loiter Saturday morning.
Southerly winds will strengthen during the day and a warm front
is forecast to lift northward across the western Great Lakes
ahead of a somewhat moisture-starved clipper system which will
move across the northern Plains Saturday. Highs will be a few
degrees warmer once again, in the upper 40s to low and middle
50s.

Saturday night through early Monday morning...

The clipper should move into northern Ontario Saturday night
and Sunday morning with a cold front pushing east across the
Northland overnight and Sunday. Winds will veer westerly and
southwesterly. Temperatures will trend cooler Sunday with highs
in the low to upper 40s. Temperatures may be falling during the
day. There is a chance of rain and snow with the passing low
pressure Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Snow may
accumulate overnight over northern Minnesota on grassy surfaces.
Less than half an inch of snow is expected.

Monday and Monday night...

Another brief period of high pressure and ridging aloft is
forecast Monday. Winds turn southerly once again and skies will
try to clear. Highs warm up several degrees into the upper 40s
to low 50s.

Tuesday through late next week...

Confidence has trended even lower in snow potential with a
storm system in the Tuesday through late week system. Various
model families feature the snow area from the Dakotas to eastern
Minnesota. There appears to be more spread in the ensemble
families in the location and timing of snow than earlier runs.
Confidence is high that precipitation will occur Tuesday night
and Wednesday. If the low pressure system moves into Minnesota
and northern Wisconsin, it will likely stall out and bring light
precipitation, mainly as light snow, from Wednesday night
through the end of next week. Other solutions have a more
progressive system which departs quickly.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Low stratus is expected to persist over the region this morning. Fog
development, which has already started in some terminals, is likely
to occur early this morning. Uncertainty associated with ceiling
heights is moderate-high this morning into the early afternoon
as models greatly diverge. The general trend will be
predominately MVFR to IFR cigs with periods of LIFR conditions
possible. Brief scattering of the low stratus will be possible
this afternoon, especially in HYR. However, low stratus and fog
are likely to return Friday evening. Winds will generally be
light through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 436 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots persist tonight and will back
southwesterly Friday as warm air advection moves overhead. Those
southwest winds will back southeasterly Saturday and will
strengthen to 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 25
knots. Conditions will become hazardous to smaller craft during
that time. A cold front will propagate eastward across the lake
Sunday with winds veering southwesterly and eventually westerly.
Gales of 35 to 40 knots are forecast in the wake of the cold
front. A Gale Watch is in effect for the western Lake Superior
nearshore waters from 6 AM Sunday until 6 AM Monday. Another
round of hazardous conditions is forecast Tuesday through late
next week as an area of low pressure moves through the region.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Huyck