978
FXUS63 KDLH 160555
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms arrive tonight and continue into
  Friday.

- Temperatures warm 5 to 10 degrees above normal for Friday.

- Temperatures then cool for the weekend with additional chances
  for rainfall into the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure was in place across the Upper Midwest early this
afternoon under mainly cloudy skies. Some clearing was occurring
over northern Wisconsin and western Lake Superior with that
trend expected to continue into this evening. However, clouds
will spread back in overnight as a warm front lifts into the
region as low pressure develops over the Central Plains. High
pressure moves off to the east tonight and showers associated
with the warm front will arrive during the early morning hours
into mid to late morning Thursday. There may be some thunder in
this activity with a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE lifting in as
well, but no strong or severe storms are expected. Most of the
rainfall will exit to the northeast by the afternoon hours, but
models try to keep some showers in the area into Thursday night
and Friday morning as the Northland remains in the warm sector
of the low.

The low will then lift into southern Manitoba and occlude Friday
as the upper trough moves into the Northern Plains. A cold front
will move across the region during the day with another band of
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder possible ahead of the
front. Highs Friday look to be around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal in the 60s and lower 70s, but if the front is quicker
than currently forecast, that may limit heating and keep the
warm air across northwest Wisconsin resulting in cooler
temperatures. Friday night will see northwest flow setup in the
wake of the low bringing cooler, more seasonable temperatures
for the weekend with 50s expected for Sunday. A deeper longwave
trough will move through the central CONUS Saturday and bring an
area of low pressure from the Missouri Valley Saturday evening
to lower Michigan on Sunday. Most of our Minnesota zones look to
see minimal shower activity from this system as it passes to our
south and east, but northwest Wisconsin will see better chances
for showers Saturday night into Sunday morning.

A ridge of high pressure will pass through to start the new work
week before another trough moves into the Nation`s midsection
for Tuesday into Wednesday. Spatial and temporal differences are
seen in guidance for this system, so overall confidence is low.
However, there is a signal for some rainfall in the region
during this time frame. High temperatures will be in the upper
50s during this time, but lows will be in the 30s. As such, some
areas may see their first snowflakes of the season, but have
kept a liquid forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Clouds and lowering ceilings are expected to continue advancing
northeast through the night and Thursday morning. Showers are
expected to pass through starting at BRD around 12z and
spreading northeast to the remaining terminals through the
morning. A bit of thunder is possible at BRD with the initial
round of showers (25% chance). Thunder is also possible at INL
mid-day to afternoon with potential for scattered storms
following the initial wave of rain during the late morning.
Can`t rule out some thunder at HIB as well, but confidence is
low enough not to carry it in the TAF at this time. Ceilings are
expected to fall to IFR as the showers pass through, and while
there may be some brief improvements this afternoon, MVFR to IFR
ceilings are expected to persist as low-level moisture
increases. Winds will become breezy from the southeast gradually
this morning and remain so through the period with gusts from 15
to 20 kt common and occasional gust to around 25 kt. LLWS is
expected to develop in the early afternoon as well at all
terminals and persist into tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure will keep winds at 10 knots or less tonight. IT
will shift off to the east by Thursday morning with winds
turning southerly to southeasterly at 5 to 15 knots. As low
pressure moves into the Upper Midwest Thursday night into
Friday, southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with
gusts to around 20 knots. This may generate waves of 2 to 4 feet
along parts of the North Shore and create conditions hazardous
to small craft. Rain chances will be seen tonight through Friday
evening, but are not expected to lead to significant visibility
restrictions.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...BJH