362
FXUS63 KDLH 281731
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1131 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers linger today mainly across the tip of the
  Arrowhead and the northwest Wisconsin snowbelt.

- High pressure brings dry and cooler conditions for the
  weekend.

- Temperatures warm back above normal for the new week with
  precipitation chances returning Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Low pressure was located near Winnipeg early this morning with a
warm front extending into eastern Minnesota. A cold front
stretched from Lake of the Woods into southeastern North Dakota
and northern South Dakota. Snow showers were ongoing across the
Minnesota Arrowhead. Webcams in the Grand Portage area showed
snow accumulating on roads, but no reports have been received
yet. It appears the low will take a slightly more northerly
track than previously expected, pushing the highest snowfall
amounts north of the International Border with this system.
Expecting another push of snow showers and rain/snow mix closer
to daybreak as the low and cold front come through. Additional
accumulations north of the Iron Range will be around an inch or
less with up to 2 inches possible in the Arrowhead. Gusty winds
to 35 mph will also lead to areas of blowing snow and will keep
the Winter Storm Warning in place due to this.

Lake effect/enhanced snowfall is expected to develop across the
northwest Wisconsin snowbelt this afternoon and continue into
tonight. Snowfall may be heavy at times with accumulations of 1
to 4 inches from the Bayfield Peninsula into the Penokee Range.
Higher amounts of 4 to 8 inches will be possible in northern
Iron County. The inherited Winter Weather Advisory looks good
and will not make any changes to it. Additionally, there is a
small chance for near-squall conditions this afternoon across
the region. Very gusty winds to 35 to 40 mph behind the front
and convective snow showers may lead to visibility reductions
down to a mile to 1/2 mile at times. Instability looks limited
and the incoming cooler air isn`t overly potent, so thinking the
overall threat for true squalls remains limited.

Snow showers end across northwest Wisconsin tonight as high
pressure moves in. This will lead to dry and cooler conditions
for Saturday with highs only reaching into the teens and 20s. As
the high slides to our east on Sunday, southerly return flow
will bring warmer temperatures back into the region with highs
reaching into the 30s and lower 40s. Temperatures continue to
warm into Monday reaching well above normal in the 40s and lower
50s. A strong Colorado low is forecast to develop Tuesday and
lift to the northeast Wednesday. While it looks like this system
will remain to our south, multiple northern stream system look
to impact the area in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. This will
result in periods of rain, snow and wintry mix midweek with
cooler air looking to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday,
bringing near to slightly above normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Strong northwest winds this with gusts upwards of 40 kts to start
the forecast period. This winds are expected to taper off a bit this
afternoon as the parent low moves across Lake Superior. Satellite
shows MVFR ceilings with a few areas of embedded snow/rain showers.
Ceilings will improve later this evening and eventually give way to
clear skies on Saturday as high pressure moves in from the
northwest.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Southwesterly winds this morning will become northerly by this
afternoon at 15 to 25 knots with gales to 40 knots over much of
the nearshore waters as an area of low pressure moves through.
Winds will slowly weaken for tonight into Saturday and
additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed
following the gales. High pressure will then keep winds under 15
knots for the remainder of the weekend. Heavy snow this morning
from Grand Marais to Grand Portage may lead to visibilities to a
1/4 mile or less at times.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ012-021.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ019-025-026-
     033>038.
WI...Wind Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ001>003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for LSZ121.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...BJH