504
FXUS63 KDLH 041125
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
625 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong shortwave and cold front will move through the region
  today into tonight bringing with it an area of snow or
  rain/snow. Most will see less than an inch of snow but the
  Arrowhead could see as much as an inch and half of snow.

- Most will see below normal temperatures, mainly from Saturday
  through Tuesday, before a warmer temperatures move back in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Weak shortwave ridging over the Northland early this morning
was leading to dry conditions under partly to mostly cloudy
skies with some patchy fog. A potent shortwave and cold front
will move into the region today and exit Saturday morning.
Forcing from the shortwave and FGEN with the front will cause an
area of precipitation to move from west to east through the
Northland today into Saturday morning. Highs today are expected
to be from the upper thirties to upper forties, warmest in
northwest Wisconsin. Precipitation type will start out as rain
or a rain/snow mix but will switch to all snow, especially over
northern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin. This switch
should occur rather quickly under the stronger forcing which
favors northern Minnesota. Snowfall for most will be less than
an inch but far northern Minnesota, particularly the Arrowhead,
may be closer to an inch and a half. Most of the snow will occur
this evening/overnight. Another area that could be closer to an
inch of snow will be in northern Iron County where some lake
effect may add to totals there.

An upper trough will linger over/near the area Saturday and
Sunday with northerly flow aloft developing. The upper trough
will depart Sunday night/Monday. Additional weaker shortwaves
will bring chances for light snow or a rain/snow mix to portions
of the Northland Saturday into Sunday night. Far northern
Minnesota will be favored Saturday afternoon and far northeast
Minnesota Sunday afternoon. Sunday night far eastern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin will see chances for light snow. A boost
due to lake processes will occur along the South Shore Sunday
night with colder air moving in. 850MB temperatures by 12Z
Monday will be from -16 to -18C. Snow amounts are expected to be
light.

Colder temperatures will occur, especially Saturday into
Tuesday, with Monday the coldest day for most with highs from
the upper twenties to upper thirties.

Warmer temperatures move in by mid-week with highs rising into
the fifties for most Wednesday and around sixty in southern
parts of the Northland by Friday. There will be some chances for
mainly light precipitation mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

VFR conditions were occurring for most early this morning but
there was some patchy fog with IFR or lower conditions. The fog
will lift between 12-15Z. There were areas of low VFR ceilings
in spots but satellite and observations were also picking up on
an area of MVFR ceilings in central Minnesota. These MVFR clouds
should expand north this morning. A cold front and shortwave
will move east through the area today into tonight causing
ceilings to further expand and lower. An area of snow or
rain/snow mix will develop with the front with chances highest
over northern Minnesota. Most will see snow accumulation less
than an inch but far north to northeast Minnesota may see an
inch with an inch and a half in the Arrowhead.

The snow will end from west to east overnight into Saturday
morning and ceilings will increase as well.

Expect a wind switch from southerly ahead of the front to
northwest behind.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Winds will be or become east or southeast today remaining at or
lower than 15 knots. A cold front will move through the area
this evening/overnight switching winds to northwest with them
increasing to 10 to 20 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots. An area
of snow/rain will move through with the front.

The wind will back to more westerly during the day Saturday with
speeds decreasing a bit through the day. West to northwest winds
will continue Saturday night into Sunday with speeds at or
lower than 15 knots with some gusts closer to 20 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde