704
FXUS63 KDLH 042350
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
550 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds with gusts to 50 to 60 mph along the
  North Shore, continue into tonight.

- Snow ends for most tonight with lake effect snow in the South
  Shore snowbelt lingering through Thursday morning.

- Another chance for light snow Friday before a weekend warmup
  that will bring temperatures above freezing before another
  cool airmass arrives next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Low pressure was located just to the northeast of Lake Superior
over Ontario this afternoon. This low was quite expansive with
the pressure gradient stretching from the Northern Plains to the
Northeast. A cold front was draped from eastern Lake Superior
across Upper Michigan into central Wisconsin, far southeastern
Minnesota, far northern Iowa and southern South Dakota.
Convective snow showers were observed on radar and satellite
behind the cold front across Minnesota and Wisconsin with some
of these reaching snow squall criteria and containing some
lightning. The strong pressure gradient was also generating
strong northwesterly winds with gusts to 35 to 45 mph along with
the colder air moving in as well.

Snow showers will diminish this evening over most of the
Northland aside from the South Shore snowbelt where lake effect
snow showers will continue. Snow there will linger into
Thursday morning before ending as surface high pressure builds
into the region. Additional snowfall of 3 to 8 inches will be
possible across Ashland and Iron counties from this activity.

The northwesterly winds will remain strong this evening and into
tonight before gradually diminishing Thursday as the
aforementioned high pressure builds in. Before then, wind gusts
to 30 to 40 mph will remain possible with higher wind gusts to
50 to 60 mph along the North Shore in Cook County due to terrain
and cold air drainage effects tonight. A High Wind Warning
remains in effect for coastal Cook County with Wind Advisories
over much of the remainder of the Northland. Lows tonight will
be in the single digits above zero with wind chills in the
single digits and teens below zero.

Winds turn westerly Thursday and become lighter as the core of
high pressure passes to the south. Some light snow showers may
linger across far eastern Iron County into the afternoon, but
should become lighter as the winds decrease and turn westerly.
Another clipper will slide to the north of the area Friday and
bring chances for a few snow showers, mainly from the
International Border into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.
Any accumulations from this system look to be minimal at around
an inch or less currently. Southerly winds will bring warmer air
into the Northland for the weekend with highs reaching into the
middle 30s both days. Another clipper will take a more southerly
track across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest to start the
new week with better chances for snow showers. Another shot of
cooler air will arrive behind this system with highs in the
teens and 20s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Strong northwest winds will persist tonight behind departing low
pressure to the east. Expect gusts from 25 to 35 kt to be
common, with speeds and gusts starting to decrease by morning.
Blowing snow is likely to cause occasional MVFR visibilities,
and some lingering light snow showers could contribute to
occasional MVFR visibilities as well, though VFR is expected
most of the time. Ceilings are expected to hover between MVFR
and VFR, but predominantly MVFR tonight with lingering moisture
and added moisture from large inland lakes in northern Minnesota
potentially affecting places like INL/HIB briefly. A period of
light lake-enhanced snow is possible at HYR this evening as
well. High pressure moves in on Wednesday, so expect clouds to
gradually clear out and winds decrease through the day.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 343 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Northwesterly winds with gale and storm force gusts will
continue into this evening before slowly diminishing Thursday
morning. Gale and Storm Warnings remain in effect through late
Thursday morning. Heavy Freezing Spray will also be possible
through late Thursday morning with the strong winds and colder
air moving in. High pressure will pass to the south Thursday
with winds becoming westerly at 5 to 15 knots. Another clipper
will pass to the north and east for Friday with west to
southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 knots possible. Stronger winds
Saturday may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
     Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for MNZ012-019-020-037.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for MNZ021.
     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ025-033>036-
     038.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ001-
     002-006>009.
     Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for WIZ001>003-006>009.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for WIZ003.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM CST Thursday for LSZ121-143>148.
     Storm Warning until 10 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140>142-150.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM CST Thursday for
     LSZ140>147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...BJH