602
FXUS63 KDLH 161744
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers continue for this afternoon and tonight,
  but rainfall will be minimal outside of the Arrowhead.

- Warm temperatures for Friday with another chance for showers.

- Periodic chances for rainfall will be seen through the
  remainder of the forecast period with overall cooling
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

High pressure was centered just east of Lake Superior early this
afternoon with low pressure over northern South Dakota. A warm front
extended eastward from this low into southwestern Minnesota and then
turned southward into central Iowa and northeastern Missouri. Large
scale ascent ahead of this warm front was resulting in cloudy skies
and areas of showers along the International Border along with some
isolated showers elsewhere across Minnesota. Isolated showers will
continue this afternoon and tonight as the warm front moves
northward. CAMs are showing an uptick in this activity for this
evening into tonight with showers becoming more scattered. An
isolated rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out with some
marginal instability in place. Additional rainfall for this
afternoon and tonight will generally be around a tenth of an inch or
less with higher amounts possible north and east of the Iron Range
where 0.25 to 0.75 inches will be possible with perhaps values
closer to an inch near the tip of the Arrowhead. Most of this
rainfall will fall this afternoon. Highs will range from the lower
50s in the Arrowhead to the middle 60s in the Brainerd Lakes area
with southerly flow bringing warmer air into the region.

As the low occludes and moves out of the Dakotas and into Manitoba
Friday, a cold front will work across the Northland through the day.
Temperatures ahead of the front will surge into the 60s and lower
70s, but this could be tempered if the cold front moves through
quicker than expected. A line of broken showers will likely
accompany the front as it moves through as well, but rainfall
amounts will be under a tenth of an inch.

Saturday into Sunday will see a longwave trough move from the Plains
into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with a surface low developing in
the Central Plains and lifting northeastward across lower Michigan
into Ontario Sunday. The latest model runs have shifted this system
a bit more to the east with only the GFS really having any impact on
the Northland in the form of some showers Saturday into Sunday
morning, mainly across northwest Wisconsin. Cooler air will be
filtering into the region as well for the weekend with highs ranging
from the middle 50s near International Falls Saturday to the middle
60s in northwest Wisconsin with widespread 50s for Sunday.

Weak ridging will move through for Sunday night before rain chances
return for Monday as an upper trough/upper low move along the
International Border. The GFS is much further south with the low
whereas the ECMWF keeps the low well to our north across northwest
Ontario and brings a cold front through region. Chances for showers
will then linger into midweek with this system being slow to clear
out and the potential for another clipper behind it. Temperatures
will climb back into the middle 50s to middle 60s on Monday before
cooling into the 40s and 50s heading into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

MVFR or lower ceilings predominate across the region early this
afternoon as a warm front approaches from the south. Isolated to
scattered showers will remain possible this afternoon and
tonight, but confidence on location and timing remains low.
Confidence in any thunder chances are even lower. Some pockets
of fog have developed, mainly at BRD, but expecting this to
improve this afternoon as winds increase. Heading into tonight,
there are signals for IFR ceilings, but overall model agreement
is low. Lower ceilings seem more likely given the warm front
moving through, but confidence is on the lower end. Improvement
is expected Friday morning, however. Winds may be gusty this
afternoon from the south/southeast, but will diminish a bit
overnight. A low level jet will set up across the region
overnight and lead to LLWS at all terminals until mixing
increases after sunrise and brings the gusty winds to the
surface.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Southeast to southerly winds will continue for tonight into Friday
morning at around 5 to 15 knots. A cold front will move across
western Lake Superior Friday and turn winds southwesterly at 10 to
20 knots with gusts to 25 knots Friday afternoon into Friday night
before diminishing. These winds will generate waves of 3 to 7 feet
along the North Shore north of Grand Marais. Small Craft Advisories
have been issued for the nearshore waters starting tonight and
continuing into Friday night. Winds will remain westerly for
Saturday at around 10 to 20 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-
     141>147-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM CDT Saturday
     for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for LSZ148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH