406
FXUS63 KDLH 191132
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
632 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weekend with possible near-critical fire weather on Sunday.

- Next system moves through late Sunday into Monday, bringing
  rain and some snow, mostly to the eastern portions of the
  Northland.

- Additional chances (30-50%) for rain and some thunderstorms
  continue through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Current Conditions/Today:

An upper level trough is pivoting in from the northwest this morning
bringing some stratus clouds across northern MN. Rain showers have
departed off to the east but the low level cloud may be able to
generate some flurries across northern MN this morning. As we
advance through the day the upper level trough slides off towards
the Great Lakes with surface high pressure settling in and skies
clearing into the evening hours.

Sunday:

High pressure begins to shift off to the east with an
increasing pressure gradient surging southerly winds into the
area. Model soundings show a good mixing day with dry low and
mid levels. Fire weather concerns will be elevated as Min RHs
fall into the 20s. Wind speeds will be below the criteria for
Red Flag Warning but will still be breezy enough that a Special
Weather Statement may be needed. Should be a great day for
Easter egg hunting with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Panhandle Hook (Sunday evening - Monday)

A deep trough over the desert southwest will spawn a panhandle hook
low out OK and swing it towards the Great Lakes region Sunday
through Monday. Ensemble families are showing better clustering
of the low moving through southern WI by Monday morning. The
Euro still has a slightly farther south solution as opposed to
the GEFS. This system looks to bring a swath of moisture through
NW WI as the deformation axis moves through the area. PWATs
increase to 0.80" which still remains in the normal range for
climatology at this time of year. Probabilistic guidance
suggests a 50% chance of NW WI seeing 0.50" of rain with the
probabilities increasing as you move SE. There is some concern
for snow to mix in during Monday. The morning timeframe could
see some dendrites in the Arrowhead and in into NW WI but we
warm rather quickly at the surface during the day so impacts of
snow in the morning are negligible. There is one more chance of
snow with this system in the late evening as the system
departs. The NBM is showing a 20-30% chance of an inch of snow
in the Gogebic range and portions of the North Shore. However,
surface temperatures largely remain over 10 degrees above
freezing and only start to dip near freezing as the event is
winding down. So these probs, albeit low, still seem a little
overly optimistic.

Midweek

We remain in a fairly active and wet pattern through mid week. Our
next system is a Northern Plains low for Tuesday that ejects
northeast towards Ontario. Thermal profiles remain warm enough
that this should be an all rain event. There could also be some
rumbles of thunder as well as some elevated instability will be
present. A brief reprieve in the action for Wednesday before
another round on Thursday comes sliding through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

An MVFR stratus deck is rotating through northern MN with some
light snow across the Borderlands. BRD looks to escape the
stratus deck but there are some clouds upstream that may still
pass over the terminal. MVFR ceilings were also occurring over
portions of northwest Wisconsin. High pressure will be nudging
in over the region today with skies beginning to thin as we head
into the afternoon. Expect clear skies and little to no winds
tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

West winds of 5-10 knots continue through the day Saturday. Winds
will start to back to our of the southeast overnight. By Sunday
afternoon winds will begin to increase out of the Northeast with
rain entering from the south Sunday evening. Winds may be hazardous
to small vessels by Monday morning as northeasterlies speeds
increase.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Melde/Britt
MARINE...Britt